Busted

So, I got a little excited by the GFS run over the weekend.  Fall weather and little rain seemed too good to be true.  And it was.  Sorry about that.  Looks like the weather is going to stay typically summer like for the next few days, and that chance of rain seems to have evaporated as well.  Looking forward this week, we see more mild weather, with day time highs in the low 70s in town, and upper 60s along the coast.  Foggy mornings and sunny afternoons.  We actually may have 24 hours of autumn starting later this morning, as the marine layer is likely to stay offshore tonight, due to that pressure gradient moving so far north.  Yesterday, an eddy flow developed, bringing a southerly flow, that kept pushing fog onshore.  In general, a westerly flow starts up again today, but light.  By Thursday, we see the return of a light to moderate NW flow, bringing back the evening fog and clouds.  Summer.  And no chance for that hot weather to develop.

Waiting for next years rain.  Fall Creek, Felton, California.

The mid and long term charts still look interesting.  The NPAC is waking up.  The storm that was to displace the high pressure in the Gulf over the weekend still has a chance of forming.  Just not at the same location, and not nearly as deep.  This one does not look strong enough to push ashore, yet there is an outside chance that it will interact with a tropical system off of Baja and drag that storm north, into the American Southwest.  Parts of California, and areas east, could see some heavy rain.  Likely, we won't.  But we may feel a tropical wave early next week.

Looking out further in the Pacific, more storms develop near the dateline, but don't really push east far.  As we look into the fantasy range, larger storms are to develop just east of the dateline the first weekend of October.  All this activity looks good from a wave generation perspective, but nothing looks like it will come ashore in the next two weeks.  While it is not uncommon to have rain in late September and October, it does look like we will need to wait a bit longer.

In the short term, cool days, with highs just around 70F.  Fog should burn off earlier today, and stay away for this evening.  With luck, we will see the sunrise on Wednesday.  Fog returns for Thursday morning, and through the weekend.  We will need to watch the marine layer, as we are not sitting right in the gradient currently. With some luck, it won't get pushed in as deep, and we can enjoy some sun.  My beans are craving it.