In the fantasy charts, we have a chance of rain here around October 1st. The Weather Channel puts it about 50% chance on the evening of Tuesday, the 2nd. The GFS has it arriving closer to next Thursday, with the storm remaining mostly just offshore to our north, allowing circulating streams of moisture to move in from the south. Right now we see light amounts, but a solid band of 1/2" to an inch plus of rain if forecast moving Northeast, coming ashore in the LA Basin. That would be good water for them. Of course, this is all in the fantasy charts.
Locally, and more immediately, fall arrives pretty much on schedule. We should be fairly clear of the marine layer near shore after Monday morning. That means warmer days, and sorta crisp mornings. With the sun being out early, the bite will be gone by school drop off. It is still September, so truly crisp mornings are still a month or so off. Until now, you will need to settle for a low of 50F and a mostly clear sky. As for the afternoon, things are on the up swing. Should be in the low 70s in town today, and just about 70F at Main Beach. There is a moderate NW wind out on the water which will keep things from getting too warm.
Over the next few days, so areas of weak low pressure in the North Pacific, will begin to push our summertime high pressure around a bit. Tonight it will begin so shift to the north, moving the typical wind gradient with it. By mid week, the high pressure will begin to weaken, and deflate, if you will, allowing the gradient to also weaken. By this weekend, we will see low pressure begin to fill the space in the Gulf to our north, and slowly, that storm system will lag south. Between Tuesday, and next Tuesday, we will see mostly slack wind conditions. We may see a bit of flow, but no sustained gradient in the immediate area. This means the onshore winds will be mostly light. Without that wind, we don't have the cooling effects of the Pacific Ocean, and we warm up like most any place at our latitude. Meaning, it gonna be nice.
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| Fall Creek, Second Growth Redwood Forest. February, 2018 and lush. |
Sunny and mid to upper 70s on Monday. More sun, and lower to mid 80s into Wednesday. We could see a bout of NW wind gradient show up for a day Thursday, dropping those highs back down into the 70s. But I'm not expecting a sustained, or strong event. As the low pressure system developing in the Gulf over the coming weekend dips south, cooler air will also keep the highs from reaching above the low 70s. Maybe. We are talking fantasy time lines, and in a suddenly active NPAC.
Lots of grains of salt with this forecast. Around the same time as our possible rain event, the GFS has a 931mb low forecast on the dateline. That is a deep winter storm, and seems outlandish. So too perhaps is rain for next week. Suddenly, at leasts, the charts begin to look interesting. And at the very least, the fog should be gone for the next few mornings. I prefer that, as I've got a solid autumn garden going, and work being completed to get in a winter garden as well. In the meantime, I need as much daytime hours of sunlight as possible. The peas, lettuce, broccoli, and beets should be okay with limited light and warmth, but I know my beans and carrots are hoping for some real Santa Cruz style autumnal warmth to hit in a few weeks. Then I'll get to enjoy a solid holiday time harvest.
I'll likely post up gain this week, as I bet this forecast will change.
EDIT: This forecast is a bust. Summer ain't over yet. Update later.
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