Okay, not so silent or steep, but it did come in the wee hours of the night and it was a decent amount. Of rain, that is. Over an inch fell in locations on the West Side, mainly from 11PM until 4AM. Across the country, we saw from three fourths to slightly over one inch or rain last night. That came in a bit stronger than anticipated. The models kept fluctuation though, so again, not surprised. That system is now onshore to our south, bringing pretty solid rain to the I5 corridor south of Tracy, down to Santa Barbara, mostly on a N-S axis. But good news is we got a little more rain into the month of January, bringing us well into the above average range. Yipee. The water years is looking good.
We have a short reprieve today. Sort of. Clouds are still out there as I type. We could even, theoretically, see a brief shower this morning. By noon, clouds are parting, and we might even shift into a predominantly sunny sky by afternoon. Winds are light right now, still a little southerly on the outer buoys. That swings back to an offshore breeze in the morning, slowly clocking around to the SW by sunset, and building in strength tonight. The next system will be pushing toward us for Friday and this one looks to be moving a bit slower, and packing a bigger punch.
The latest GFS guidance still suggest it will take some time for the rain to hit us tomorrow. The Euro is a bit quicker with the onset of precipitation. I'm leaning toward rain moving in after 4PM on Friday, with the potential for some showers prior to then. Wind will be strong for the south on Friday, building through the day. Gusty at times, potentially hitting 40 mph Friday night. Once rain moves in, it will be heavy. Maybe two inches by mid day Saturday. The heart of the storm is east of us by Saturday evening, but light rain could persist through Tuesday. We are looking at up to three inches through the period, but I am thinking we will land right around two and a quarter inches total by Tuesday night. This storm bring some cold air, and we might be lucky enough to see some snow caped peaks to our south when things clear out middle of next week.
Snow will fall in the Sierra. If you are headed up this weekend, plan for some snowy roads and potentially closed passes. Plan to pack water, food, blankets, emergency supplies and tire chains (even if you have an AWD, you need to carry chains). Snow will begin falling Friday night, but only expect a few inches for Saturday morning. The storm arrives in the Sierra on Saturday and rages. A foot an a half at the higher resorts by Sunday, with the storm still kicking into Monday night. We could see three feet on the higher peaks by the time it is done late Tuesday. Cold air settles in behind it. Highs in the 30s Saturday drop to the 20s Sunday and even colder for Monday. It will be winter.
Last day for clean surf is today. We are looking at potentially more storms going into the new month, so while we will have some fair days, it will take a while for the sea to settle. So go out and get on that fun moderate swell in the water right now. I was lucky enough to be out last night around sunset at a ledge near town. The sky was going off. An alien space ship was nearby, glowing through the clouds. We thought we heard thunder, but I am now sure it was some sort of sub woofer drive these aliens use to power their craft. What an experience. And the waves we super fun.
Thursday, January 31, 2019
Tuesday, January 29, 2019
Brief Shower, Wednesday Night and This Weekend.
Not rally surprised by the clouds and brief shower on the west side this morning. A narrow plume of moisture is coming ashore just to our north right now. This is all that remains of a storm that weakened significantly as it moves southeast. We might see another shower in the next hour or so, but this system is mostly east of us now and will dissipate in the valley through the afternoon. We are still expecting plenty of sunshine today and temps in the low to mid 60s. Yesterday we hit 71.2F around 3:45 yesterday at king and Van Ness. That is when we saw the most sun as well. Swell period has dropped from 15 seconds down to 13 seconds. Height has dropped about a foot as well. Winds are still light. Good day to hit the water. Just don't expect too much.
It is grey right now, but this should break up in the morning. It now looks like Wednesday will be another pleasant day, with more sun than clouds, light winds, and temps in the low to mid 60s. That storm is going to take its time arriving, and will show up after sunset. While it takes its time, it will build some in strength. We are now looking up at a half inch of rain falling Wednesday night. Showers could continue into Thursday morning, but should end well before noon. It will be a quick punch. This storm does not look like it will get much up into the Sierra, as it moves inland, and then south, down through the Central Valley. A decent water maker, but not so much for the snow. Maybe a few inches up on the highest peaks. Light rain below that.
It will be a little cooler behind the storm on Thursday. Clouds should clear a bit, but the sky will not be clear. Light winds again. This mornin's GFS run is suggesting that the Friday storm will also be delayed, perhaps by up to 24 hours. As it looks now, light rain arriving overnight on Friday. The system really pushes on shore in the morning Saturday, and we could see more than a half inch during the day. Storm continues overnight with another half inch, but most of this coming before midnight. Rain continues on Sunday, but the bulk of the system will be in the Sierra by then. This is a pretty big range in timing since yesterday morning's run. Will monitor. Plan for a wet weekend either way. Just might end up with a decent Friday and a wetter Sunday.
It is grey right now, but this should break up in the morning. It now looks like Wednesday will be another pleasant day, with more sun than clouds, light winds, and temps in the low to mid 60s. That storm is going to take its time arriving, and will show up after sunset. While it takes its time, it will build some in strength. We are now looking up at a half inch of rain falling Wednesday night. Showers could continue into Thursday morning, but should end well before noon. It will be a quick punch. This storm does not look like it will get much up into the Sierra, as it moves inland, and then south, down through the Central Valley. A decent water maker, but not so much for the snow. Maybe a few inches up on the highest peaks. Light rain below that.
It will be a little cooler behind the storm on Thursday. Clouds should clear a bit, but the sky will not be clear. Light winds again. This mornin's GFS run is suggesting that the Friday storm will also be delayed, perhaps by up to 24 hours. As it looks now, light rain arriving overnight on Friday. The system really pushes on shore in the morning Saturday, and we could see more than a half inch during the day. Storm continues overnight with another half inch, but most of this coming before midnight. Rain continues on Sunday, but the bulk of the system will be in the Sierra by then. This is a pretty big range in timing since yesterday morning's run. Will monitor. Plan for a wet weekend either way. Just might end up with a decent Friday and a wetter Sunday.
Sunday, January 27, 2019
Things Change.
I know I posted about a long period of fair weather. And I meant it. Problem is, Ma Nature disagreed. Anyway, we are still looking at some fine weather to start the week. Before we look at the week ahead, how about a shout out for today. 76.8F at 1:38 this afternoon the west side in late January. Gorgeous. Still warm out there. Only dropped below 60F at 8PM. Add to that a moderate swell and light winds and it was a perfect winter's day. There are a few clouds out there at this point and those should stick around for tomorrow. Another fine day is on tao for Monday. A touch cooler than today, but we could still see temps hitting the upper 60s and low 70s. Winds remain light and northeasterly. Surf remains in the fun range. Tuesday looks similar with a little more clouds cover, a bit cooler and the swell a touch smaller. Then things get a little weird.
We still have high pressure set up right on us, but slowly shifting toward the west, allowing some very weak weather systems to dive down the coast. The first, on Tuesday evening, looks like it will effect the regions to our north and east, bypassing Santa Cruz. But we are talking about missing us by less than 100 miles. That sounds like a big distance, but in comparison to the size of the Earth, it is really close. In meteorological terms, it is a near miss. A slight shift in vector, and we will get some rain Wednesday. Regardless of rainfall, it will cause some brisk north westerly winds to kick up. So clouds, and cooler for hump day, with a slight chance of rain, increasing in the afternoon. At most a tenth of an inch. Of course, if the models show any change over the next 24 hours, I'll post up here.
So, that is the first chance. There are more. What ever happens Wednesday, we should have plenty of sun and lighter winds on Thursday. Expect a high in the mid 60s. That semi storm will usher in a slightly cooler air mass. All in all, still mild. Thing is, another storm, this one a bit wetter, looks like it will drive south on Friday. The 6PM GFS suggest a pretty wet system arriving during the morning Friday, filling in during the day. This is not like the last series of storms, but still, we could be looking at up to a half inch of rain by Saturday morning, and rain continuing into the day beyond that. These type of storms are really hard to predict, as they are riding down the eastern edge of a high pressure and lot depends on the location and strength of that. We won't really know what to expect until Thursday, and even then, it will be an educated guess at best. Still, plan for some rain Friday. Maybe moderate amounts. And fairly stiff south winds. But again, not as strong as the storms earlier in the month.
It currently looks like we will be clear by Sunday as high pressure shifts back east and sets upon us. It also looks like we might see a colder air mass set up after the Friday/Saturday storm. So there is that.
As a note, it looks like we will see some moderate winter swells this week. Early in the week we will see waves back off slowly from the swell that arrived today. Looks like we could see another long period fun sized swell arrive Wednesday, with possible a moderate plus sized long period swell arriving Friday.
Month to date, we have received 7 inches at DeLaveaga. More on gauges here on the west side. It looks like we are about average for the water year and slightly above average for the month of January. Rain mid week will only continue to help out. Much of the state is still in drought. With all the recent rain, we did not see much of a shift in the drought conditions except for the areas most severely hit. Well, that is not completely accurate. We still have .71% of the state listed as Extreme Drought. That did not change, but we saw a drop in the area listed as Severe Drought from 4.83% to 2.73%. We also saw nearly a percentage point drop for those areas listed as Moderate Drought. With area listed as Normal remaining the same, we did see a small increase in area listed as Abnormally Dry. All in all, this is a good shift in our situation, and with rain forecast for the week ahead, we will continue to move in the right direction. That said, please be cognizant of your water use. We are still in a drought condition.
We still have high pressure set up right on us, but slowly shifting toward the west, allowing some very weak weather systems to dive down the coast. The first, on Tuesday evening, looks like it will effect the regions to our north and east, bypassing Santa Cruz. But we are talking about missing us by less than 100 miles. That sounds like a big distance, but in comparison to the size of the Earth, it is really close. In meteorological terms, it is a near miss. A slight shift in vector, and we will get some rain Wednesday. Regardless of rainfall, it will cause some brisk north westerly winds to kick up. So clouds, and cooler for hump day, with a slight chance of rain, increasing in the afternoon. At most a tenth of an inch. Of course, if the models show any change over the next 24 hours, I'll post up here.
So, that is the first chance. There are more. What ever happens Wednesday, we should have plenty of sun and lighter winds on Thursday. Expect a high in the mid 60s. That semi storm will usher in a slightly cooler air mass. All in all, still mild. Thing is, another storm, this one a bit wetter, looks like it will drive south on Friday. The 6PM GFS suggest a pretty wet system arriving during the morning Friday, filling in during the day. This is not like the last series of storms, but still, we could be looking at up to a half inch of rain by Saturday morning, and rain continuing into the day beyond that. These type of storms are really hard to predict, as they are riding down the eastern edge of a high pressure and lot depends on the location and strength of that. We won't really know what to expect until Thursday, and even then, it will be an educated guess at best. Still, plan for some rain Friday. Maybe moderate amounts. And fairly stiff south winds. But again, not as strong as the storms earlier in the month.
It currently looks like we will be clear by Sunday as high pressure shifts back east and sets upon us. It also looks like we might see a colder air mass set up after the Friday/Saturday storm. So there is that.
As a note, it looks like we will see some moderate winter swells this week. Early in the week we will see waves back off slowly from the swell that arrived today. Looks like we could see another long period fun sized swell arrive Wednesday, with possible a moderate plus sized long period swell arriving Friday.
Month to date, we have received 7 inches at DeLaveaga. More on gauges here on the west side. It looks like we are about average for the water year and slightly above average for the month of January. Rain mid week will only continue to help out. Much of the state is still in drought. With all the recent rain, we did not see much of a shift in the drought conditions except for the areas most severely hit. Well, that is not completely accurate. We still have .71% of the state listed as Extreme Drought. That did not change, but we saw a drop in the area listed as Severe Drought from 4.83% to 2.73%. We also saw nearly a percentage point drop for those areas listed as Moderate Drought. With area listed as Normal remaining the same, we did see a small increase in area listed as Abnormally Dry. All in all, this is a good shift in our situation, and with rain forecast for the week ahead, we will continue to move in the right direction. That said, please be cognizant of your water use. We are still in a drought condition.
Sunday, January 20, 2019
About On Track.
I took the past two days and got up to the snow. Unfortunately, the forecast changed just as I locked in my plans. That brief high pressure and awesome weather we just experienced in Santa Cruz was not quite so strong, nor so awesome, up in the Sierra. Still, Friday was superbly fun. The storm had just broken in the morning and all would have been nearly epic if that next system did not roll in around 10AM. A thick cloud of fog enveloped the mountain. It was not PNW pea soup, but a low cloud. And while it did not rain, the snow absorbed that moisture and the cloud acted as a blanket and things got heavy. First few runs in the morning weren't through blower, but it was boot deep, and fluff. Landings were silky. By afternoon, the fresh tracks were still wonderful, there was a noticeable difference in the snow. And my goggles were wet. As was my coat. But still a lot of fun, and did I mention the landings were silky. If anything they improved with the day. So the past week's of 40 plus inches skied only a few inches deep in most spots. Then, around 6PM the drizzle began. It lasted all night. Saturday was firm in the shade and soft in the sun. Felt like spring. Luckily, we have today and tonight.
Here in Santa Cruz, the light rain is back on. We are around .13 inches of rain for today. This is around what was forecast a few days ago. Over the last 48 hour the forecast was getting wetter and wetter. At one point I saw if climb to an inch of rain for today, and was almost that high early this morning. NWS is back down to calling for maybe another tenth inch tonight. Winds have already shifted NW, so that suggest the center of the storm is to our east, and we we see rain end shortly. Right now a solid band is hitting us, and precipitation rates are rising, but this may be the final band as the entire system moves onshore. Monday should be sunny, and mild. Then we go into a warming trend for the week. We could be hitting 70F by late in the work week. Right now it looks like we should peak out around Friday, but the dry weather is forecast to stick around through the end of the month. My math gives us at least ten days of sunshine. The plants are going to go wild.
The Sierra has up to two feet forecast at the crest for this storm. Kirkwood has been getting a lot less snow than the mountains around the north west of the lake. Kirkwood is reporting 42 inches from this last week, while Squaw has 74. That is a big difference. Northstar's 64 to Heavenly's 26. Still, I can attest the coverage at Kirkwood is excellent. I'd still say it is in the slightly low tide range, but much more of a mid tide. And more importantly, what is coverage is caked in snow. I imagine more resorts are in good shape. And if you ask me, this depth of snow is ideal. If we get too much, the mountains are really not quite as much fun as everything flattens out. Anyway, if you can get on it tomorrow, I imagine it will be good. Snow levels today started below 7800', and dropped all day. Currently they are around 6000 feet, so what is falling is all snow at all resorts. And up high it is fluff. Regardless of how this one produces, it will give the entire basin a great recoding, and came in right to bond with the firm surface below. Oh, and the persistent deep slab still exist in the backcountry. If you don't know what I'm talking about, stay out of the back country for now.
Sunshine tomorrow. Too bad not tonight, as the full sonar eclipse will occur in less than an hour. Those clouds will be blocking it. Upper 50s, but it will feel warmer due to sunshine. Brisk NW winds continue, but back off through the day. Low 40s over night. Some protected pockets inland might drop into the 30s. Daytime highs in the 60s this week, building to 70F. Overnight lows rebound back in to the mid 40s. Pretty damn clear. Things are going to dry out.
Oh, yeah, that fun moon. King Tides. Huge tides tomorrow. Some of the biggest of the year. Watch out for coastal flooding during high tide. About 7 feet at 9:45AM. Sucking out all day to negative 1.5 feet at 4:30PM. Watch for currents and plan to tide pool in the evening.
Here in Santa Cruz, the light rain is back on. We are around .13 inches of rain for today. This is around what was forecast a few days ago. Over the last 48 hour the forecast was getting wetter and wetter. At one point I saw if climb to an inch of rain for today, and was almost that high early this morning. NWS is back down to calling for maybe another tenth inch tonight. Winds have already shifted NW, so that suggest the center of the storm is to our east, and we we see rain end shortly. Right now a solid band is hitting us, and precipitation rates are rising, but this may be the final band as the entire system moves onshore. Monday should be sunny, and mild. Then we go into a warming trend for the week. We could be hitting 70F by late in the work week. Right now it looks like we should peak out around Friday, but the dry weather is forecast to stick around through the end of the month. My math gives us at least ten days of sunshine. The plants are going to go wild.
The Sierra has up to two feet forecast at the crest for this storm. Kirkwood has been getting a lot less snow than the mountains around the north west of the lake. Kirkwood is reporting 42 inches from this last week, while Squaw has 74. That is a big difference. Northstar's 64 to Heavenly's 26. Still, I can attest the coverage at Kirkwood is excellent. I'd still say it is in the slightly low tide range, but much more of a mid tide. And more importantly, what is coverage is caked in snow. I imagine more resorts are in good shape. And if you ask me, this depth of snow is ideal. If we get too much, the mountains are really not quite as much fun as everything flattens out. Anyway, if you can get on it tomorrow, I imagine it will be good. Snow levels today started below 7800', and dropped all day. Currently they are around 6000 feet, so what is falling is all snow at all resorts. And up high it is fluff. Regardless of how this one produces, it will give the entire basin a great recoding, and came in right to bond with the firm surface below. Oh, and the persistent deep slab still exist in the backcountry. If you don't know what I'm talking about, stay out of the back country for now.
Sunshine tomorrow. Too bad not tonight, as the full sonar eclipse will occur in less than an hour. Those clouds will be blocking it. Upper 50s, but it will feel warmer due to sunshine. Brisk NW winds continue, but back off through the day. Low 40s over night. Some protected pockets inland might drop into the 30s. Daytime highs in the 60s this week, building to 70F. Overnight lows rebound back in to the mid 40s. Pretty damn clear. Things are going to dry out.
Oh, yeah, that fun moon. King Tides. Huge tides tomorrow. Some of the biggest of the year. Watch out for coastal flooding during high tide. About 7 feet at 9:45AM. Sucking out all day to negative 1.5 feet at 4:30PM. Watch for currents and plan to tide pool in the evening.
Thursday, January 17, 2019
Spot On.
We received a total of one inch of rain yesterday and are standing at .79 inches today. That puts us 1.2 inch since yesterday's post. We may still see some more rain this evening, but chances are dwindling. This morning's rain sure out performed expectations today, but last night under produced. But overall, we are spot on. It is difficult to find the exact timing go the intense bands. I can see stars outside, but there is still another band just south of us that may produce some more showers. The winds are down. This afternoon the wind at Long Marine Lab was 13 mph. A far cry from last nights breezy condition.
The high pressure filling in is pretty weak. A storm is going to just miss us to our north tomorrow. Perhaps more clouds than previously thought. Maybe a hair cooler. The surf is up. In fact, it is XXL style. I was able to see third reef Middle Peak break from my house today. I live just off Escalona Drive, so a mile from the water and not really up the hill. My view is not of near shore, but open ocean. Typically. Winds are turning easterly to south easterly overnight and Friday, perhaps cleaning things up a bit. If you are thinking of venturing out, be sure you know what your are doing. In general, stay away from the edge of cliffs and be ware of cresting and crashing waves as they hit the rocks.
We still see a chance for light rain Sunday. Chances have increased, but still expecting less than a tenth inch in town. Cooler air mass arrives Monday. Sunnier and calmer weather. So lows drop into the low 40s and highs rise in to the low 60s. Next chance of series rain looks like it will be in February. So, after this weekend, we will be taking the tally and see how it stacks up to average.
The high pressure filling in is pretty weak. A storm is going to just miss us to our north tomorrow. Perhaps more clouds than previously thought. Maybe a hair cooler. The surf is up. In fact, it is XXL style. I was able to see third reef Middle Peak break from my house today. I live just off Escalona Drive, so a mile from the water and not really up the hill. My view is not of near shore, but open ocean. Typically. Winds are turning easterly to south easterly overnight and Friday, perhaps cleaning things up a bit. If you are thinking of venturing out, be sure you know what your are doing. In general, stay away from the edge of cliffs and be ware of cresting and crashing waves as they hit the rocks.
We still see a chance for light rain Sunday. Chances have increased, but still expecting less than a tenth inch in town. Cooler air mass arrives Monday. Sunnier and calmer weather. So lows drop into the low 40s and highs rise in to the low 60s. Next chance of series rain looks like it will be in February. So, after this weekend, we will be taking the tally and see how it stacks up to average.
Wednesday, January 16, 2019
It's Here.
Well, that should be obvious. We have an initial band of the storm move through earlier today, giving us rain off and on from about 11AM until 3PM, or so. We got a 1/4 inch on the westside. Enough that the Pogonip had rivets and pools of water and muck all over the place. Kind of magical, that place in the rain. Then we saw a break, and decent conditions for the afternoon commute. Unfortunately, some mud slid on 17, backing things up a bit after 4PM. Its open now, but southbound lanes were closed for a few minutes, but opened soon after. Could have been worse. Let's see what happens tonight. On the radar, this thing looks solid. Listening to things getting tossed around my deck right now only supports that thesis. Looking at the gauge, we received .35 inches of rain in the past hour and twenty minutes. That is some steady rain.
Winds are steady 35 mph out of the south at Long Marine Lab. Those picked up around 2PM today, but have been gusting the last few hours. A 50mph gust was recorded around 7:30 this evening. That is some wind. We will likely see another half inch or more by sunrise Thursday. It looks like the worst of this second band is now east of us, but another band is already beginning to show on radar. We are forecast to see both rain and wind settle a bit after midnight tonight, but we should still see steady rain through the morning hours. That commute is going to be hairy. As the morning wears on, we will see the winds and rain become less severe. Overnight we will see periods of heavy and moderate rain, with perhaps a few breaks. The rain becomes more sporadic on Thursday.
We could still see some rain in the evening on Thursday, but rain should cease before midnight. All told, about an inch to inch and half more rain by Friday morning. While the afternoon commute Thursday won't be as stormy as the morning, we could still see some residual effects. Friday morning could also see some mud sliding about. But we will see some sun on Friday. That will be awesome.
Still looking at a storm brushing us from the north on Sunday for a chance of light showers. Then we are looking at 10 plus days of fine winter weather. Sunshine, and light winds. Hopefully that swell will still be pumping. Right now the ocean looks brutal.
Winds are steady 35 mph out of the south at Long Marine Lab. Those picked up around 2PM today, but have been gusting the last few hours. A 50mph gust was recorded around 7:30 this evening. That is some wind. We will likely see another half inch or more by sunrise Thursday. It looks like the worst of this second band is now east of us, but another band is already beginning to show on radar. We are forecast to see both rain and wind settle a bit after midnight tonight, but we should still see steady rain through the morning hours. That commute is going to be hairy. As the morning wears on, we will see the winds and rain become less severe. Overnight we will see periods of heavy and moderate rain, with perhaps a few breaks. The rain becomes more sporadic on Thursday.
We could still see some rain in the evening on Thursday, but rain should cease before midnight. All told, about an inch to inch and half more rain by Friday morning. While the afternoon commute Thursday won't be as stormy as the morning, we could still see some residual effects. Friday morning could also see some mud sliding about. But we will see some sun on Friday. That will be awesome.
Still looking at a storm brushing us from the north on Sunday for a chance of light showers. Then we are looking at 10 plus days of fine winter weather. Sunshine, and light winds. Hopefully that swell will still be pumping. Right now the ocean looks brutal.
Tuesday, January 15, 2019
Wow.
Tuesday's system is way over producing. Even this morning's models were suggesting no more than an inch of rain for today. As of 6PM, we are at 2.39 inches of rain on the westside. I doubled checked everything this morning, when we were at a quarter inch of rain as of 7AM this morning. But, wow. The rain was really coming down between 2PM and 3:30PM today. King Street was swamped. All my drains were rushing. Felt like a real winter storm. Things have slowed down, but it is still raining. Not surprised by that nearly as much as the amounts. This will catapult us up to average for the month and get us close to average for the water year. Good stuff.
The heaviest precipitations now to our east. The wind is still blowing out there. Picking up in town. The yacht harbor is blowing from the SSW at 29mph, gusting to 40mph over the last few hours. The Monterey Bay Buoy has been dropping from over the last few hours from 34mph down to 22mph. Anyway, still breezy. Should subside overnight, and we could have a pleasant enough morning on Wednesday. It will still be a bit breezy, even early. Still, before 10am, it could be not raining, and not too windy. By afternoon, it becomes likely we will have some showers, developing into heavy rain by nightfall. Winds become gusty, and heavy rain develops in possible thunderstorms. Yeah, this one is going to be active.
Overall, the total rain forecast for the next two days is in the two to three inch range. A lot of that will depend on positioning of the storm when the center moves through just to our north. The bulk of that rain will come through in the dark, Wednesday night, through Thursday morning. The morning commute on Wednesday does not look too bad. In fact, the afternoon commute might not be terrible tomorrow, as long as you get out ahead of the storm. While the worse of the storm will be over before the Thursday morning commute, the result of an inch or more of rain over night will be evident. By the afternoon, things will have subsided significantly, but still expect slow traffic and back ups. Friday will feel like bliss. As long as the road is still there.
So, a break (it seems like it is already here tonight) into mid day tomorrow, and then a quick and wet one into Thursday. Clearing for Friday. Man, Friday and Saturday are looking great right now.
The heaviest precipitations now to our east. The wind is still blowing out there. Picking up in town. The yacht harbor is blowing from the SSW at 29mph, gusting to 40mph over the last few hours. The Monterey Bay Buoy has been dropping from over the last few hours from 34mph down to 22mph. Anyway, still breezy. Should subside overnight, and we could have a pleasant enough morning on Wednesday. It will still be a bit breezy, even early. Still, before 10am, it could be not raining, and not too windy. By afternoon, it becomes likely we will have some showers, developing into heavy rain by nightfall. Winds become gusty, and heavy rain develops in possible thunderstorms. Yeah, this one is going to be active.
Overall, the total rain forecast for the next two days is in the two to three inch range. A lot of that will depend on positioning of the storm when the center moves through just to our north. The bulk of that rain will come through in the dark, Wednesday night, through Thursday morning. The morning commute on Wednesday does not look too bad. In fact, the afternoon commute might not be terrible tomorrow, as long as you get out ahead of the storm. While the worse of the storm will be over before the Thursday morning commute, the result of an inch or more of rain over night will be evident. By the afternoon, things will have subsided significantly, but still expect slow traffic and back ups. Friday will feel like bliss. As long as the road is still there.
So, a break (it seems like it is already here tonight) into mid day tomorrow, and then a quick and wet one into Thursday. Clearing for Friday. Man, Friday and Saturday are looking great right now.
Monday, January 14, 2019
As Expected.
The week ramps up. Looks like we will see some heavier rain on Tuesday, and then lighter Tuesday night. We could see over an inch, maybe even two on Wednesday. That afternoon commute is going to be a killer. Leave early or leave late. Moderate to heavy rain overnight on Wednesday and into mid day on Thursday. The storm looks like it will be a faster mover, so clearing out by Thursday afternoon. Possibly. That morning commute will be pretty rough, and we will still have wet roads come afternoon. Use caution, and give yourself plenty of time to get where you need to go safely.
We received a little less than a 1/10 inch on Monday. There were some periods of showers, but nothing prolonged. The last system is inland in Socal and already moved into southern Nevada and Arizona. The desert is getting some rain. Next system is just offshore, and this one is going to do a better job of moving rain over us. Rain fills in overnight and Tuesday will be fairly rainy. We are looking at perhaps a half inch of rain before a slight break Tuesday night. The big storm for the week arrives here on the coast Wednesday. Rain will be heavy at times on Wednesday and ramp up in the afternoon and evening. We could see an inch or even two from Wednesday morning into Thursday afternoon. After that, the storm tapers quickly and moves through to our east. We could see some showers Thursday night, but things back off quickly. A very slight chance of showers early Friday, with sun by mid day. Saturday looks like the best day of the week, with sun and high of about 60F.
We could see one more storm. It looks like it won't make it here until Sunday. And it may stay to our north. But for now, we have a chance of rain coming Sunday or Martin Luther King Day. Kind of bummed, as I was hoping to be in the fields that day. But that is still almost a week out, so don't count on poor weather just yet.
We are looking at a possibility of 2.5 inches or more of rain over the next few days. This is not armageddon levels of rain, but it is significant. I was out in the Pogonip today, and the ground is certainly saturated. Creeks are flowing. We could see some minor flooding occur mid to late on Thursday. Luckily, just when things would be looking to get bad, the rain should stop. Still, be prepared. Not a bad idea to check on candles and flashlights.
As for the snow, the Sierra is looking at 4 to 6 inches of precipitation over the next several days. Four to five feet of snow is expected above 8000 feet, mainly falling from Wednesday night through Friday morning. It is going to be a busy holiday weekend up in the mountains. Lots of people are going to be heading up on Friday. Please drive respectfully. And schuss respectfully as well. And be smart. Stay in open areas, do not duck ropes and always have a buddy for skiing off piste. If you avi gear, and ski a resort with avalanche prone areas, where the beacon. Carry a shovel and probe to help in a rescue. Have fun, but play smart.
We received a little less than a 1/10 inch on Monday. There were some periods of showers, but nothing prolonged. The last system is inland in Socal and already moved into southern Nevada and Arizona. The desert is getting some rain. Next system is just offshore, and this one is going to do a better job of moving rain over us. Rain fills in overnight and Tuesday will be fairly rainy. We are looking at perhaps a half inch of rain before a slight break Tuesday night. The big storm for the week arrives here on the coast Wednesday. Rain will be heavy at times on Wednesday and ramp up in the afternoon and evening. We could see an inch or even two from Wednesday morning into Thursday afternoon. After that, the storm tapers quickly and moves through to our east. We could see some showers Thursday night, but things back off quickly. A very slight chance of showers early Friday, with sun by mid day. Saturday looks like the best day of the week, with sun and high of about 60F.
We could see one more storm. It looks like it won't make it here until Sunday. And it may stay to our north. But for now, we have a chance of rain coming Sunday or Martin Luther King Day. Kind of bummed, as I was hoping to be in the fields that day. But that is still almost a week out, so don't count on poor weather just yet.
We are looking at a possibility of 2.5 inches or more of rain over the next few days. This is not armageddon levels of rain, but it is significant. I was out in the Pogonip today, and the ground is certainly saturated. Creeks are flowing. We could see some minor flooding occur mid to late on Thursday. Luckily, just when things would be looking to get bad, the rain should stop. Still, be prepared. Not a bad idea to check on candles and flashlights.
As for the snow, the Sierra is looking at 4 to 6 inches of precipitation over the next several days. Four to five feet of snow is expected above 8000 feet, mainly falling from Wednesday night through Friday morning. It is going to be a busy holiday weekend up in the mountains. Lots of people are going to be heading up on Friday. Please drive respectfully. And schuss respectfully as well. And be smart. Stay in open areas, do not duck ropes and always have a buddy for skiing off piste. If you avi gear, and ski a resort with avalanche prone areas, where the beacon. Carry a shovel and probe to help in a rescue. Have fun, but play smart.
Saturday, January 12, 2019
Slow and Light.
So that system last night shifted south quickly, cuttings off from additional accumulation soon after midnight. We saw a short drizzle this afternoon in the Pogonip, but doubt it measured. Total rainfall was about 3/4 of an inch on the westside. De Leverage only recorded about a 1/3 inch. What was looking like a heavy coastal rainfall a few days ago, came in a lot lighter. Sunday's system is looking light as well. The storm is only a few hundred miles from here, but going slowly, and staying well west until it is well south of us. We will see plenty of east and south winds, but the rain might not come in until Monday. We do have a chance of rain tomorrow afternoon and evening, and like the drizzle today, one could occur at anytime, but it looks like we should have a fair morning. Looks like we got lucky this weekend. All in all, we are only expecting some light rain Sunday night and into Monday. We will need to wait until Tuesday for something a little heavier.
As for air temps we are expecting lows in the low 40s and highs in the upper 50s. Those overnight lows will creep up through the week into the upper 40s. Daytime highs won't change much through the week. Monday we some steady rain move in, netting us a half inch or more in a 24 hour period. Tuesday will remain rainy, but perhaps a little less rain. The heaviest systems come in Wednesday and into Thursday, with over an inch of rain falling each day. The heaviest precipitation is expected mid day Wednesday through mid day Thursday. I'd plan for a long commute on Thursday morning, with slow roads through most of the work week. The good news is Friday is looking decent. Might even get a shot of sunshine.
The QPF is calling for 3 to 4 inches of rain this coming week in Santa Cruz. Some models have more. The local mountains are expecting 4 to 6 inches depending on locale. That is a lot of water to handle in essentially four days. Especially considering we just had about three inches of rain in the last week. The ground is wet. The creeks are flowing. Look for flooding in the usual areas. Slow down on those turns on 17. Consider the time saved not waiting for emergency crews while waiting upside down in your car when you are considering that dicey pass just to save a few seconds on your drive. Oh, and look out for oozing mudslides if you live on a local mountain road.
While we are expecting some decent rainfall, also remember how this past week under performed. The models have been bullish. We might not get hit as directly as expected. As for next weekend, that Saturday storm is trending further north. I'll keep an eye on that. Either way, this rain train is coming to an end soon and high pressure is planning on setting up shop. A return to fine weather and some decent surf conditions. As much as I love getting snow, and knowing how we need the rain, I sure do like that dry weather.
Speaking of snow, things are looking real good in Tahoe. The last week of storms has laid down a nice base building reset. The final few storms were a bit warm, but most resorts received snow all the way to the base. That wet heavy snow is perfect for caking rocks and covering up the snow snakes. Skiing is great above 8000 feet right now, and these next series of storms are coming in decently cold. We are only expecting a few inches early in the week, with bigger snowfall mid week. Just like the storms here on the coast. By Friday morning, we could be looking at total in the 3-4 foot range. Things are setting up nicely for the holiday weekend. If you are not heading out of town for MLK, consider volunteering at a local charity. The Homeless Garden Project has a volunteer day set up. Check it out and give back to those in your community who could use a hand.
As for air temps we are expecting lows in the low 40s and highs in the upper 50s. Those overnight lows will creep up through the week into the upper 40s. Daytime highs won't change much through the week. Monday we some steady rain move in, netting us a half inch or more in a 24 hour period. Tuesday will remain rainy, but perhaps a little less rain. The heaviest systems come in Wednesday and into Thursday, with over an inch of rain falling each day. The heaviest precipitation is expected mid day Wednesday through mid day Thursday. I'd plan for a long commute on Thursday morning, with slow roads through most of the work week. The good news is Friday is looking decent. Might even get a shot of sunshine.
The QPF is calling for 3 to 4 inches of rain this coming week in Santa Cruz. Some models have more. The local mountains are expecting 4 to 6 inches depending on locale. That is a lot of water to handle in essentially four days. Especially considering we just had about three inches of rain in the last week. The ground is wet. The creeks are flowing. Look for flooding in the usual areas. Slow down on those turns on 17. Consider the time saved not waiting for emergency crews while waiting upside down in your car when you are considering that dicey pass just to save a few seconds on your drive. Oh, and look out for oozing mudslides if you live on a local mountain road.
While we are expecting some decent rainfall, also remember how this past week under performed. The models have been bullish. We might not get hit as directly as expected. As for next weekend, that Saturday storm is trending further north. I'll keep an eye on that. Either way, this rain train is coming to an end soon and high pressure is planning on setting up shop. A return to fine weather and some decent surf conditions. As much as I love getting snow, and knowing how we need the rain, I sure do like that dry weather.
Speaking of snow, things are looking real good in Tahoe. The last week of storms has laid down a nice base building reset. The final few storms were a bit warm, but most resorts received snow all the way to the base. That wet heavy snow is perfect for caking rocks and covering up the snow snakes. Skiing is great above 8000 feet right now, and these next series of storms are coming in decently cold. We are only expecting a few inches early in the week, with bigger snowfall mid week. Just like the storms here on the coast. By Friday morning, we could be looking at total in the 3-4 foot range. Things are setting up nicely for the holiday weekend. If you are not heading out of town for MLK, consider volunteering at a local charity. The Homeless Garden Project has a volunteer day set up. Check it out and give back to those in your community who could use a hand.
Friday, January 11, 2019
Six Tenths In.
As of 9PM, we have seen .6" of rain fall on the west side. Bonny Doon is reporting almost an inch. This storm is just off our coast and moving toward the south, but bands of rain are sweeping northerly along the coast. It looks like it is moving slowly, so we could see some decent rain tonight. The models suggest only about another quarter inch tonight, but there are pockets to our north and south that are expecting twice that. It has to do with the mountains. But the angle of the bands coming in suggest to me we could see some of those higher amounts. All depends how much east we see in the wind. Regardless, most of the rain falls before sunrise Saturday with this storm.
It now looks like things could taper off Saturday, with the Sunday storm staying just far enough off shore to keep us out of the rain on Sunday. Could. Yesterday everything was moving faster. It could be again tomorrow. But we have a chance of rain holding off until Sunday night. We could even see some sun this weekend. Basically showers abate mid to late morning on Saturday, the clouds break up a bit and the sunset will be prime. BTW, anyone see that sunrise Friday morning? If the Sunday system hold off, we might see sun again Sunday morning, and clouds filling in through the day.
I'll detail next work week later, but we see another storm move down the coast Monday, and slowly shift inland, to our south on Tuesday. This brings heavy rain to our region and heavy snow to the Sierra. Wednesday another storm moves right iron the heels of the previous system, with more reinforcements for Thursday. It is going to be wet folk. This will be the week to work from home if you can. Looks like the worst days will be Tuesday-Thursday. We could get a break next Friday, but a final storm looks like it want to break through on Saturday (19th). After that, it finally looks like a solid winter high pressure will set in. The sun shall shine for MLK Day.
It now looks like things could taper off Saturday, with the Sunday storm staying just far enough off shore to keep us out of the rain on Sunday. Could. Yesterday everything was moving faster. It could be again tomorrow. But we have a chance of rain holding off until Sunday night. We could even see some sun this weekend. Basically showers abate mid to late morning on Saturday, the clouds break up a bit and the sunset will be prime. BTW, anyone see that sunrise Friday morning? If the Sunday system hold off, we might see sun again Sunday morning, and clouds filling in through the day.
I'll detail next work week later, but we see another storm move down the coast Monday, and slowly shift inland, to our south on Tuesday. This brings heavy rain to our region and heavy snow to the Sierra. Wednesday another storm moves right iron the heels of the previous system, with more reinforcements for Thursday. It is going to be wet folk. This will be the week to work from home if you can. Looks like the worst days will be Tuesday-Thursday. We could get a break next Friday, but a final storm looks like it want to break through on Saturday (19th). After that, it finally looks like a solid winter high pressure will set in. The sun shall shine for MLK Day.
Thursday, January 10, 2019
Wet Days Ahead.
Today is looking to be the best day of the week. That last stormed under performed, netting less than a quarter inch her in Santa Cruz. The De Laveaga plot is at 3.23 inches for the month of January. We will have to see what the next seven days bring. As for now, get outside and enjoy the breaking clouds and limited sunshine, as the next system is set to arrive overnight tonight with rain forecast for Friday. Surf is still cranking a bit, and the winds have turned east for now. Conditions should improve through the day before deteriorating again overnight. Chilly out there. Currently 49F, warming into the upper 50s. That is the call for the rest of this week.
Clouds increase tonight. It looks like the morning commute could remain dry, with rain filling in around mid day Friday. It will begin with showers, but we could see some strong squalls by afternoon. The real brunt of the storm arrives Friday night. Southwesterly winds in excess of 25 mph are expected. So another whipper snapper. Strongest winds are expected in the waning daylight hours and the heaviest rain is expected after dark. Still a bit windy and rainy on Saturday morning, but the storm should back off soon after sunrise. We could even see a little sunshine late in the day. All told, this system could bring a half to one inch of rain for town.
Then there is the Sunday through Thursday systems. As it looks right now, we could have fairly sustained rain for five days, as the Sunday storm hits, slows and eases south along the coast. A second, then third come in behind it, and run right into the coast. These look like they will head more east than south. The models are not in agreement, but for now, expect rain to come back non Sunday, heavy at times. The 7 Day QPF is calling for 4-7" along much of the California Coast from Humboldt to Los Angelos. The Big Sur Coast has a fairly large region forecast to receive 7-10 inches of rain during the period. That is a lot of water for one week. I'll be watching these forecasts and reporting back here. As it stands now, we could see significant rains from Sunday through Thursday. If this comes to pass, we will be above average for the month and back on average for the water year. We could also see some significant flooding, downed trees and some moving earth.
Clouds increase tonight. It looks like the morning commute could remain dry, with rain filling in around mid day Friday. It will begin with showers, but we could see some strong squalls by afternoon. The real brunt of the storm arrives Friday night. Southwesterly winds in excess of 25 mph are expected. So another whipper snapper. Strongest winds are expected in the waning daylight hours and the heaviest rain is expected after dark. Still a bit windy and rainy on Saturday morning, but the storm should back off soon after sunrise. We could even see a little sunshine late in the day. All told, this system could bring a half to one inch of rain for town.
Then there is the Sunday through Thursday systems. As it looks right now, we could have fairly sustained rain for five days, as the Sunday storm hits, slows and eases south along the coast. A second, then third come in behind it, and run right into the coast. These look like they will head more east than south. The models are not in agreement, but for now, expect rain to come back non Sunday, heavy at times. The 7 Day QPF is calling for 4-7" along much of the California Coast from Humboldt to Los Angelos. The Big Sur Coast has a fairly large region forecast to receive 7-10 inches of rain during the period. That is a lot of water for one week. I'll be watching these forecasts and reporting back here. As it stands now, we could see significant rains from Sunday through Thursday. If this comes to pass, we will be above average for the month and back on average for the water year. We could also see some significant flooding, downed trees and some moving earth.
Monday, January 7, 2019
Almost Three.
Over the weekend we received 2.95" of rain at King and VanNess here on the westside. Bonny Doon logged 6.31 inches. It was wet, and the local creeks are running today. I bet a hike up in Fall Creek would be nice on a day like today. Crisp, but with some sunshine filtering through the canopy, and the waterfalls all running. Yeah, that sun even came out today. Missed the sunset, but I bet it was bonus. Sunrise Tuesday should be good as well. The ocean is a bunch of mixed up swell, but morning is the best shot for some rides tomorrow. Clouds and wind fill in during the day, with rain returning by nightfall. Looks like we could get another half inch here in town by mid day Wednesday, with more in the mountains. This system looks like it will move swiftly and stay mainly to our north, giving us some shadowing and keeping us from getting drenched again. Just want to point out again that the ground is already saturated and with no where for the water to go easily, we could could see some urban flooding, high creeks and water in the street. Drive carefully for that afternoon commute.
We get a break Wednesday. The morning drive could be wet, but it looks like the heaviest rain will be over by mid morning. Showers could continue into the afternoon. Thursday looks nice and sunny. A large swell arrives Wednesday and subsides a bit Thursday. The winds should ease a bit Thursday and maybe turn favorable. More on that tomorrow. The big news is two storms sliding down the coast this coming weekend. Between the two of them, we could see an excess of two inches of rain in town. The good news is the second one looks like it will hit SoCal pretty decently, providing much needed rain to the southern coastline. I'll update date on these storms as they approach. For now, know the heaviest rain will be Friday afternoon and night, and again Saturday night and Sunday morning. But it could be wet through both days this weekend. Movies, wet hikes aquariums and museums look like the options out there.
We get a break Wednesday. The morning drive could be wet, but it looks like the heaviest rain will be over by mid morning. Showers could continue into the afternoon. Thursday looks nice and sunny. A large swell arrives Wednesday and subsides a bit Thursday. The winds should ease a bit Thursday and maybe turn favorable. More on that tomorrow. The big news is two storms sliding down the coast this coming weekend. Between the two of them, we could see an excess of two inches of rain in town. The good news is the second one looks like it will hit SoCal pretty decently, providing much needed rain to the southern coastline. I'll update date on these storms as they approach. For now, know the heaviest rain will be Friday afternoon and night, and again Saturday night and Sunday morning. But it could be wet through both days this weekend. Movies, wet hikes aquariums and museums look like the options out there.
Sunday, January 6, 2019
Welcome Back. It's Raining.
We've had over two inches of rain in Santa Cruz today, on January 6th. Nearly three since the rain started on Saturday. Sorry I was not here to forecast this thing for you. I was out on the road and far away fro the lap top. What a time that was. Now I'm back, and we have a lot of rain to look forward to. Gusty southwest winds continue tonight, with some more rain possible. Looking at the radar, I suspect the strongest rain is behind us for now. As we wake on Monday, the sky will still be clouds, and we could still see some rain. But chances are much slimmer than today, and what does fall will be much lighter. But the respite is short. The next storm up stream is expected on Monday night into Tuesday morning.
Monday will be cool, with a high of just abut 60F. Rain during the day light hours is most likely earlier in the day. As we move into dusk it should be just cloudy out. Doubt the clouds will clear much for a spectacular sunset, but there is always a chance. Just like with the surf. We have some decent swell in the water, but the winds are making it a victory at sea thing. But time it right and you may find favorable winds for a few hours Monday. Not likely, but it could happen. Just like that fine sunset. Anyway, rain moves back in overnight. Temps drop into the upper 40s. Tuesday looks rainy. And breezy. Not quite like today rainy and breezy. Winds will be gusty, maybe hitting the low 30 mph range, with sustained winds below 25mph. Still, that is some decent wind. Tuesday we could see rain early, but light, increasing in intensity late in the day. It really picks up after dark with a half inch of rain overnight, and around one inch or more total by the time this storm wraps up on Wednesday. We will be looking at four inches total since the rain started on Saturday.
Keep that in mind and expect a lot of run off and urban flooding. Like there was today. While the intensity is going to drop, those grounds got pretty saturated today and won't dry out much between storms. Good news is we should dry out Wednesday night, see breaking clouds on Thursday morning, with some actual sunshine through the day. Might even feel warm. On the other hand, we are looking at storms for Friday late, Sunday and a few into the following week. It could be wet run. Good news for our water year and snow pack. Not so much for the commute crew.
After a slow start to the water year, we had a big November and a two inch below average December (3.66" at De Laveaga). Luckily we are starting out this month fairly wet, and could hit 2/3 of average this week alone, with more storms lined up possibly through mid month. The drought issue is nuanced. The portion of the state in Moderate Drought has drastically increased from 25 to 60%, but we've seen drops in Extreme Drought (18 to 12%) and Exceptional (5 to 2%). The worse drought remains along the Santa Barbara to Ventura coast and areas inland along the northern border. The Sierra and West Slope from Tahoe south to about Sequoia National Park is out of drought completely. Here in Santa Cruz we are listed as Moderate. Keep that in mind as you use water.
Updates throughout this week.
Monday will be cool, with a high of just abut 60F. Rain during the day light hours is most likely earlier in the day. As we move into dusk it should be just cloudy out. Doubt the clouds will clear much for a spectacular sunset, but there is always a chance. Just like with the surf. We have some decent swell in the water, but the winds are making it a victory at sea thing. But time it right and you may find favorable winds for a few hours Monday. Not likely, but it could happen. Just like that fine sunset. Anyway, rain moves back in overnight. Temps drop into the upper 40s. Tuesday looks rainy. And breezy. Not quite like today rainy and breezy. Winds will be gusty, maybe hitting the low 30 mph range, with sustained winds below 25mph. Still, that is some decent wind. Tuesday we could see rain early, but light, increasing in intensity late in the day. It really picks up after dark with a half inch of rain overnight, and around one inch or more total by the time this storm wraps up on Wednesday. We will be looking at four inches total since the rain started on Saturday.
Keep that in mind and expect a lot of run off and urban flooding. Like there was today. While the intensity is going to drop, those grounds got pretty saturated today and won't dry out much between storms. Good news is we should dry out Wednesday night, see breaking clouds on Thursday morning, with some actual sunshine through the day. Might even feel warm. On the other hand, we are looking at storms for Friday late, Sunday and a few into the following week. It could be wet run. Good news for our water year and snow pack. Not so much for the commute crew.
After a slow start to the water year, we had a big November and a two inch below average December (3.66" at De Laveaga). Luckily we are starting out this month fairly wet, and could hit 2/3 of average this week alone, with more storms lined up possibly through mid month. The drought issue is nuanced. The portion of the state in Moderate Drought has drastically increased from 25 to 60%, but we've seen drops in Extreme Drought (18 to 12%) and Exceptional (5 to 2%). The worse drought remains along the Santa Barbara to Ventura coast and areas inland along the northern border. The Sierra and West Slope from Tahoe south to about Sequoia National Park is out of drought completely. Here in Santa Cruz we are listed as Moderate. Keep that in mind as you use water.
Updates throughout this week.
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