I know I posted about a long period of fair weather. And I meant it. Problem is, Ma Nature disagreed. Anyway, we are still looking at some fine weather to start the week. Before we look at the week ahead, how about a shout out for today. 76.8F at 1:38 this afternoon the west side in late January. Gorgeous. Still warm out there. Only dropped below 60F at 8PM. Add to that a moderate swell and light winds and it was a perfect winter's day. There are a few clouds out there at this point and those should stick around for tomorrow. Another fine day is on tao for Monday. A touch cooler than today, but we could still see temps hitting the upper 60s and low 70s. Winds remain light and northeasterly. Surf remains in the fun range. Tuesday looks similar with a little more clouds cover, a bit cooler and the swell a touch smaller. Then things get a little weird.
We still have high pressure set up right on us, but slowly shifting toward the west, allowing some very weak weather systems to dive down the coast. The first, on Tuesday evening, looks like it will effect the regions to our north and east, bypassing Santa Cruz. But we are talking about missing us by less than 100 miles. That sounds like a big distance, but in comparison to the size of the Earth, it is really close. In meteorological terms, it is a near miss. A slight shift in vector, and we will get some rain Wednesday. Regardless of rainfall, it will cause some brisk north westerly winds to kick up. So clouds, and cooler for hump day, with a slight chance of rain, increasing in the afternoon. At most a tenth of an inch. Of course, if the models show any change over the next 24 hours, I'll post up here.
So, that is the first chance. There are more. What ever happens Wednesday, we should have plenty of sun and lighter winds on Thursday. Expect a high in the mid 60s. That semi storm will usher in a slightly cooler air mass. All in all, still mild. Thing is, another storm, this one a bit wetter, looks like it will drive south on Friday. The 6PM GFS suggest a pretty wet system arriving during the morning Friday, filling in during the day. This is not like the last series of storms, but still, we could be looking at up to a half inch of rain by Saturday morning, and rain continuing into the day beyond that. These type of storms are really hard to predict, as they are riding down the eastern edge of a high pressure and lot depends on the location and strength of that. We won't really know what to expect until Thursday, and even then, it will be an educated guess at best. Still, plan for some rain Friday. Maybe moderate amounts. And fairly stiff south winds. But again, not as strong as the storms earlier in the month.
It currently looks like we will be clear by Sunday as high pressure shifts back east and sets upon us. It also looks like we might see a colder air mass set up after the Friday/Saturday storm. So there is that.
As a note, it looks like we will see some moderate winter swells this week. Early in the week we will see waves back off slowly from the swell that arrived today. Looks like we could see another long period fun sized swell arrive Wednesday, with possible a moderate plus sized long period swell arriving Friday.
Month to date, we have received 7 inches at DeLaveaga. More on gauges here on the west side. It looks like we are about average for the water year and slightly above average for the month of January. Rain mid week will only continue to help out. Much of the state is still in drought. With all the recent rain, we did not see much of a shift in the drought conditions except for the areas most severely hit. Well, that is not completely accurate. We still have .71% of the state listed as Extreme Drought. That did not change, but we saw a drop in the area listed as Severe Drought from 4.83% to 2.73%. We also saw nearly a percentage point drop for those areas listed as Moderate Drought. With area listed as Normal remaining the same, we did see a small increase in area listed as Abnormally Dry. All in all, this is a good shift in our situation, and with rain forecast for the week ahead, we will continue to move in the right direction. That said, please be cognizant of your water use. We are still in a drought condition.
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