Wet Days Ahead.

Today is looking to be the best day of the week.  That last stormed under performed, netting less than a quarter inch her in Santa Cruz.  The De Laveaga plot is at 3.23 inches for the month of January.  We will have to see what the next seven days bring.  As for now, get outside and enjoy the breaking clouds and limited sunshine, as the next system is set to arrive overnight tonight with rain forecast for Friday.  Surf is still cranking a bit, and the winds have turned east for now.  Conditions should improve through the day before deteriorating again overnight.  Chilly out there.  Currently 49F, warming into the upper 50s.  That is the call for the rest of this week.

Clouds increase tonight.  It looks like the morning commute could remain dry, with rain filling in around mid day Friday.  It will begin with showers, but we could see some strong squalls by afternoon.  The real brunt of the storm arrives Friday night.  Southwesterly winds in excess of 25 mph are expected. So another whipper snapper.  Strongest winds are expected in the waning daylight hours and the heaviest rain is expected after dark.  Still a bit windy and rainy on Saturday morning, but the storm should back off soon after sunrise.  We could even see a little sunshine late in the day.  All told, this system could bring a half to one inch of rain for town.

Then there is the Sunday through Thursday systems.  As it looks right now, we could have fairly sustained rain for five days, as the Sunday storm hits, slows and eases south along the coast.  A second, then third come in behind it, and run right into the coast.  These look like they will head more east than south.  The models are not in agreement, but for now, expect rain to come back non Sunday, heavy at times.  The 7 Day QPF is calling for 4-7" along much of the California Coast from Humboldt to Los Angelos. The Big Sur Coast has a fairly large region forecast to receive 7-10 inches of rain during the period.  That is a lot of water for one week.  I'll be watching these forecasts and reporting back here.  As it stands now, we could see significant rains from Sunday through Thursday. If this comes to pass, we will be above average for the month and back on average for the water year. We could also see some significant flooding, downed trees and some moving earth.