The first wave of the storm over performed and the second under performed. It is hard today to get an accurate rain gauge reading, as many are currently down in town, and those that are up, have a huge range. DelaVeaga is coming in hot with .77" yesterday and .35" from Tuesday night. That is an inch of rain for this 2nd wave, which is right on target to even over performing. WeatherCat puts the total at almost 1/3 inch, which is way less, and a slight under performer. The WestherUderground gauges that are reporting put the Toal rainfall closer to .15" from yesterday. Like I said, quite a range. Ultimately, it felt like a lot less than a half inch of rain yesterday. Some very short periods of moderate rain, but mostly light and intermittent showers. And that third wave looks like it will amount to maybe a tenth of an inch. Meanwhile, the Sierra got pounded pretty hard, with over a foot of fresh snow above 7000 feet, with plenty more than that on the peaks.
Today, Thursday, we will see clouds, remain cool and have a chance for some light showers in the morning. Sun could break out by afternoon. Then it is a warming trend folks. Mid 70s by Sunday. Not big change there. Some moderate NW winds develop in the afternoons, but we are looking at mostly light morning winds over the next few days. Friday morning may be the exception with the departure of the storm developing a stronger NW flow easier in the day. Otherwise it is looking quite fine out there through Sunday evening.
The next series of storms is right on the tail of this week. GFS keeps flipping the forecast between keeping the entire series of storms just to our north, to having a direct hit on the Bay Area. We will need to watch these, and keep in mind it is very hard to get a decent forecast this time of year more than 48 hours out. We won't really have a handle on Monday until Saturday. We could see any where from no rain next week, to up to two inches over three storms. Geez. These storms are not quite so cold, but we will see daytime highs drop almost 10 degrees from Sunday. Slightly cooler air, wind and clouds can do that. But it won't be cold. That is good news.
Long range still shows an active pattern up to two weeks out. Agin, these forecasts are not reliable when it comes to details, but this suggest that we could see possible rain and storm systems moving through well into April. Sooner or later the high pressure will come in for real, and drive us out of the rainy season. Still, even when that happens, we can still see storms break through on occasion. In 2011 we saw rain into June. That was a wonderful year for spring skiing and for hiking. In case you have not noticed, the state is looking pretty green. And yellow, red, orange, purple, gold and more as we are headed into a super bloom. If you have never been, consider a hike down in Pinnacles National Park. It is just an hour and half from here, and it is going off right now.
Thursday, March 28, 2019
Tuesday, March 26, 2019
Lamb Sandwich.
March is pretty much looking like it came in like a lion, went full on lamb, and will be wrapping up as a lion. Sort of. If we could just not include the coming weekend. After a spell of magnificent weather, we are into the rain again. Friday night we received about an inch of rain on the west side. Last night, we collected about a half inch of rain. And more is on the way. Today, Tuesday, will be cloudy and mild, with a high temperature in the low to mid 60s. We could see some showery weather; most likely early and late in the day, with mid day the best chance for a peek of sunshine. Light and variable winds in the morning, along with a moderate swell might make it a surf day.
Southwest winds pick up in the afternoon, and more rain moves in this evening. Round two for this mid week storm system. This next round is the bulk of the storm, and we should at least double our accumulation for the week. Expect about a half inch of rain to fall again overnight, with rain continuing into the day on Wednesday. Accumulation will be lighter during the day Wednesday, and we could see the steady rain shift to our north by afternoon. High of about 60F. Showers could continue into the evening Wednesday. We are looking at a total rain fall of about 3/4 to one inch.
It looks like the rain will be just to our north and east on Thursday. We could still see some showers. More likely is sunshine by afternoon. And a little more warmth to come with that sunshine. From there, the rest of the month looks pretty stellar. A little lamb on top. Open face style. With the clearing sky, we see overnight lows drop. Tonight will hang in the low 50s. Friday night will be in the low 40s. But let us first speak of Friday. Sunshine. Warmth. Spring.
This coming weekend is looking to be pretty damn stellar. Mid to upper 60s, with 70F not out of the question. Warmest on Sunday. It looks like it will be another beach day here in Santa Cruz. Low tide will be .24' at 2:45PM on Sunday, so you can expect a crowd out on the sand bar. We will be headed out to the snow, but will likely be at the beach Saturday. Speaking of snow, Tahoe has an epic snow pack right now. With another few feet on the way this week, things are only getting better as Vail prepares to shut down its resorts. Boo. Several of the locally and privately owned resorts like Diamond Peak and Homewood plan to stay open through the end of April. Alterra is keeping Squaw and Mammoth open through the 4th of July, with Alpine closing date yet to be announced. There are several months of awesome spring skiing left. It is a great time of year to get out on the slopes, whether you are a first timer or old hat. Make some spring and summer turns this year.
Finally, water. We are still hanging with 6.58% of the state listed as Abnormally Dry. Perhaps this week will get water to the extreme north west portion of the state, but not likely to get it to the south. Of note is the Drought Severity and Coverage Index is now sitting at 7. Last year at this time, the DSCI was 159. At the start of our water year it was 164, and was 186 just three months ago. We received a tremendous amount of rain fall in that time, but the great news is it came as a moderate steady stream. Compare that to two years ago, when we received almost all our our rain for the water year in a five week period. That led to a huge number of mud and land slides, roads and bridges being washed out and a lot of infrastructure depletion. It sure felt nice to not have that level of damage this year. Sure, we saw damage. A friend had an old growth douglas fir split their home in half. But overall, we escaped what could have been a damaging year.
Looking at the long term, a weak system tries to break down the high pressure on Sunday afternoon. It likely will be deflected north. Maybe some light rain Sunday night or Monday. A few weak systems early in the week, push the high pressure out, and we could see rain returning by mid week or the following weekend. On the fantasy charts, we have a wet week the 2nd week of April. Composite models continue to suggest a wetter than average April and May. These months are typically fairly dry, so not really expecting a big winter storm cycle. Just more rain. Keep posted
Southwest winds pick up in the afternoon, and more rain moves in this evening. Round two for this mid week storm system. This next round is the bulk of the storm, and we should at least double our accumulation for the week. Expect about a half inch of rain to fall again overnight, with rain continuing into the day on Wednesday. Accumulation will be lighter during the day Wednesday, and we could see the steady rain shift to our north by afternoon. High of about 60F. Showers could continue into the evening Wednesday. We are looking at a total rain fall of about 3/4 to one inch.
It looks like the rain will be just to our north and east on Thursday. We could still see some showers. More likely is sunshine by afternoon. And a little more warmth to come with that sunshine. From there, the rest of the month looks pretty stellar. A little lamb on top. Open face style. With the clearing sky, we see overnight lows drop. Tonight will hang in the low 50s. Friday night will be in the low 40s. But let us first speak of Friday. Sunshine. Warmth. Spring.
This coming weekend is looking to be pretty damn stellar. Mid to upper 60s, with 70F not out of the question. Warmest on Sunday. It looks like it will be another beach day here in Santa Cruz. Low tide will be .24' at 2:45PM on Sunday, so you can expect a crowd out on the sand bar. We will be headed out to the snow, but will likely be at the beach Saturday. Speaking of snow, Tahoe has an epic snow pack right now. With another few feet on the way this week, things are only getting better as Vail prepares to shut down its resorts. Boo. Several of the locally and privately owned resorts like Diamond Peak and Homewood plan to stay open through the end of April. Alterra is keeping Squaw and Mammoth open through the 4th of July, with Alpine closing date yet to be announced. There are several months of awesome spring skiing left. It is a great time of year to get out on the slopes, whether you are a first timer or old hat. Make some spring and summer turns this year.
Finally, water. We are still hanging with 6.58% of the state listed as Abnormally Dry. Perhaps this week will get water to the extreme north west portion of the state, but not likely to get it to the south. Of note is the Drought Severity and Coverage Index is now sitting at 7. Last year at this time, the DSCI was 159. At the start of our water year it was 164, and was 186 just three months ago. We received a tremendous amount of rain fall in that time, but the great news is it came as a moderate steady stream. Compare that to two years ago, when we received almost all our our rain for the water year in a five week period. That led to a huge number of mud and land slides, roads and bridges being washed out and a lot of infrastructure depletion. It sure felt nice to not have that level of damage this year. Sure, we saw damage. A friend had an old growth douglas fir split their home in half. But overall, we escaped what could have been a damaging year.
Looking at the long term, a weak system tries to break down the high pressure on Sunday afternoon. It likely will be deflected north. Maybe some light rain Sunday night or Monday. A few weak systems early in the week, push the high pressure out, and we could see rain returning by mid week or the following weekend. On the fantasy charts, we have a wet week the 2nd week of April. Composite models continue to suggest a wetter than average April and May. These months are typically fairly dry, so not really expecting a big winter storm cycle. Just more rain. Keep posted
Friday, March 22, 2019
Spring Showers.
We saw three fourths of an inch of rain with the system earlier this week. That was a bit more than the forecast. Almost all of it came overnight. That was nice. These storms are keeping the surf in decent shape, with the dreaded spring northwest flow not having a chance to develop. We have already seen rain from the next system move in. Just a light drizzle so far, with very little accumulation (like a hundredth of an inch). Rain should fill in today, and become more consistent by this evening. The forecast has increased the precip amounts, and we are not looking over a half inch of rain tonight. March is starting to look like another solid water producer, as the storms keep lining up. Today will be cool, staying in the upper 50s. Cloud cover keeps us in the low 40s overnight. The storm clears out by morning, and we have a nice Saturday on tap. With the addition of sunshine, we could see temps rise tot he low 60s. With the addition of stars Saturday night, we could see those temps drop into the upper 30s. Sunday morning will be a crisp one. Sunshine prevails, rounding out a nice, if cool weekend. Add to that a solid late season NW swell, with decent local conditions, and this is looking like a great first weekend of spring.
Rain returns to the region on Monday. The different models are still all over the lace for the timing go the next systems. The GFS has the next storm push a front across the region on Monday, bringing a decent bout of showers. Probably in the half inch range. Tuesday remain wet, but with very light showers ahead of the storm that pushes ashore on Wednesday. We could see an inch or more with the center of the storm, with showers lasting into Thursday. Timing is really hard to predict with these spring systems, as most of them are not connected to the jet stream. The take away is that the last week of March is going to be wet, with up to a few inches possible.
It currently looks like that last weekend of March we will have a break in the storms. The fantasy range models suggest more rain for the first week of April. The wet season is not over yet. You may be a little sad about that after experiencing the top notch weather we had a week ago. The good news is none of these storms look that strong or wet, and they all have a short break in between systems. In the mean time, get outside this weekend and hit the water or the trails. Make the most of that sunshine. And the waterfalls are still in form, and will get a solid boost from tonights rain.
Rain returns to the region on Monday. The different models are still all over the lace for the timing go the next systems. The GFS has the next storm push a front across the region on Monday, bringing a decent bout of showers. Probably in the half inch range. Tuesday remain wet, but with very light showers ahead of the storm that pushes ashore on Wednesday. We could see an inch or more with the center of the storm, with showers lasting into Thursday. Timing is really hard to predict with these spring systems, as most of them are not connected to the jet stream. The take away is that the last week of March is going to be wet, with up to a few inches possible.
It currently looks like that last weekend of March we will have a break in the storms. The fantasy range models suggest more rain for the first week of April. The wet season is not over yet. You may be a little sad about that after experiencing the top notch weather we had a week ago. The good news is none of these storms look that strong or wet, and they all have a short break in between systems. In the mean time, get outside this weekend and hit the water or the trails. Make the most of that sunshine. And the waterfalls are still in form, and will get a solid boost from tonights rain.
Sunday, March 17, 2019
Absolutely Stunning.
Pretty much the entire west side showed up to hang out on the Cowells sand bar this afternoon, and with good reason. The perfect bar and a solid swell alone would be enough to attract the hordes, but after a long wet winter, it is no surprise that folks would want to soak up the sunshine on a gorgeous 80 degree late winter day. Yeah, eighty. At least that was what was recorded t several westside locations on the uphill side of Mission. It was 74F on the Municipal Wharf the afternoon, and that area is exposed to any wind. Simply stunning. If you missed it, might be worth trying to get out tomorrow afternoon. Did I mention the stupendous sand bar.
Anyway, this wonderful spell of sunshine is coming to an end. Monday will be great. Sunny and warm. Mid 70s, maybe 80F again in the warmest spots. Overnight lows in the upper 40s. Clear into Tuesday morning. Then the first in a series of storms starts to move in. It should be noted that this series of storms is nothing like what we saw a few weeks ago. These will be much warmer and with much less rain fall. But a series none the less. Clouds fill in all morning Tuesday and we see chances of rain by noon. Anything that falls during the daylight hours will be fairly light, with better chances of more moderate rain Tuesday night. We could see a quarter inch overnight. Moderate rain continues through mid day Wednesday. A additional two tenths of an inch by night fall. Light showers are possible Wednesday night and Thursday morning, but the storm should exit by mid day Thursday.
Daytime highs drop each day. Tuesday will feel much cooler than today with the cloud cover and high in the mid to upper 60s. Wednesday and Thursday will top out in the low 60s with Wednesday being the cooler of the tow days. We won't see a big break in the rain, as another storm is expected to arrive on Friday. This is another moderate rainmaker and a little cooler. It will drive down overnight lows into the low to mid 40s and keep day time highs in the low 60s. Maybe another half inch of rain, with some clearing on Sunday.
The GFS keeps them coming, with another rain maker after a brief one day break. This one is forecast to last through mid week, with another storm possible the following weekend. Of course we are looking out into the fantasy models. And if we are talking fantasy, the long term models are suggesting a few inches of rain through the end of the month, with a few more in April, and a wetter than average May. So, winter is not over yet folks. It does not look like the boom then bust of two winters ago, when we got a tremendous amount of rain from late December through late February and then things just dried out. Might me more like a leaking faucet this spring. And if you are a snow sport enthusiast who enjoy spring and summer turns, this is good news. Snow surfaces are being refreshed this week, and might keep getting those soothing light spring snows to keep things going into July.
Anyway, this wonderful spell of sunshine is coming to an end. Monday will be great. Sunny and warm. Mid 70s, maybe 80F again in the warmest spots. Overnight lows in the upper 40s. Clear into Tuesday morning. Then the first in a series of storms starts to move in. It should be noted that this series of storms is nothing like what we saw a few weeks ago. These will be much warmer and with much less rain fall. But a series none the less. Clouds fill in all morning Tuesday and we see chances of rain by noon. Anything that falls during the daylight hours will be fairly light, with better chances of more moderate rain Tuesday night. We could see a quarter inch overnight. Moderate rain continues through mid day Wednesday. A additional two tenths of an inch by night fall. Light showers are possible Wednesday night and Thursday morning, but the storm should exit by mid day Thursday.
Daytime highs drop each day. Tuesday will feel much cooler than today with the cloud cover and high in the mid to upper 60s. Wednesday and Thursday will top out in the low 60s with Wednesday being the cooler of the tow days. We won't see a big break in the rain, as another storm is expected to arrive on Friday. This is another moderate rainmaker and a little cooler. It will drive down overnight lows into the low to mid 40s and keep day time highs in the low 60s. Maybe another half inch of rain, with some clearing on Sunday.
The GFS keeps them coming, with another rain maker after a brief one day break. This one is forecast to last through mid week, with another storm possible the following weekend. Of course we are looking out into the fantasy models. And if we are talking fantasy, the long term models are suggesting a few inches of rain through the end of the month, with a few more in April, and a wetter than average May. So, winter is not over yet folks. It does not look like the boom then bust of two winters ago, when we got a tremendous amount of rain from late December through late February and then things just dried out. Might me more like a leaking faucet this spring. And if you are a snow sport enthusiast who enjoy spring and summer turns, this is good news. Snow surfaces are being refreshed this week, and might keep getting those soothing light spring snows to keep things going into July.
Friday, March 15, 2019
6.58%
Only a tiny area in the far northern end of the state and a small area in the far southern end of the state are listed as Abnormally Dry. The rest of the state is normal, or above normal surface water content. Wow. This winter has been a huge turn around. Don't start going showering the yard in water, washing the car and otherwise pouring it down the drain. We are just basically returning to normal. It was a nice consistent six weeks of rain. Never a tremendous amount al at once. And while we saw issues with the roads and mud slides, it could have been much worse. We faired well with a return to a regular rainy winter. And it is not over yet. We are just enjoying a respite.
It does not looks like we will see another long period of regular moderate rainfall like we enjoyed earlier this winter. Still, we must remain prepared for another period of otherwise active weather. First, though, we get to enjoy the best weekend yet of 2019. Sun and warmth are the name of the game. Today was pretty damn beautiful. Decent surf, light winds and temps across the west side in the upper 60s and low 70s. The Wharf recorded 66F this afternoon. Pretty sweet. Low tide in the afternoon and the sand bar at Cowells is fat. Get out and enjoy a sweet beach day. We should be out Sunday afternoon. Weather stays nice through Monday, and in fact, Monday might be the nicest one.
A storm is going to try to undercut the high pressure Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. It will weaken or possibly split as it approaches. As it is now, we have a chance for light to moderate rain for the middle of next week. This system will beat down the door, so to speak, weakening the high pressure ahead of the next storm. The second system is forecast to arrive Friday or Saturday. This one is likely going to be a little stronger, but not a super heavy hitter. We will need to watch these systems next week and see how they approach our region. For now, I hope you plans to get outside this weekend. It is going to be pretty awesome.
It does not looks like we will see another long period of regular moderate rainfall like we enjoyed earlier this winter. Still, we must remain prepared for another period of otherwise active weather. First, though, we get to enjoy the best weekend yet of 2019. Sun and warmth are the name of the game. Today was pretty damn beautiful. Decent surf, light winds and temps across the west side in the upper 60s and low 70s. The Wharf recorded 66F this afternoon. Pretty sweet. Low tide in the afternoon and the sand bar at Cowells is fat. Get out and enjoy a sweet beach day. We should be out Sunday afternoon. Weather stays nice through Monday, and in fact, Monday might be the nicest one.
A storm is going to try to undercut the high pressure Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. It will weaken or possibly split as it approaches. As it is now, we have a chance for light to moderate rain for the middle of next week. This system will beat down the door, so to speak, weakening the high pressure ahead of the next storm. The second system is forecast to arrive Friday or Saturday. This one is likely going to be a little stronger, but not a super heavy hitter. We will need to watch these systems next week and see how they approach our region. For now, I hope you plans to get outside this weekend. It is going to be pretty awesome.
Monday, March 11, 2019
And It Gets Even Better.
Well it now looks like that storm coming into California on Tuesday is going to stay well north and east of the Bay Area. That mean north west winds will continue into mid week, and the sun will be out. It was crisp this morning. It was 38F this morning at 7AM. The Van Ness and King thermometer recorded a high of 74.7F at 5PM. I am sure that was in the sun, but it was warm out there today.
Still expecting a cold front hitting us tomorrow, perhaps keeping us in the upper 50s. We rebound into the low 60s for the rest the rest of the work week, and will see a significant warming trend over the weekend. Still expecting low 70s for Sunday and the start of next week. Not just at a sunny spot on the west side, but across town. And maybe even up to the water's edge. It was gorgeous today, and it will be gorgeous all week.
There are signs in the long range forecast that storms will try to break down this high pressure in about a week's time. It does not look like winter is quite over, but we do have a nice respite to enjoy. Too far out right now to say with certainty when rain will return, but I'll be keeping an eye on the model runs and report when they are within 5 days.
Nearly 90% of the state is completely out of drought, with about 10% Abnormally Dry, and only .6% still listed as Moderate Drought. We have made strides. This is from last Tuesday, so does not include rain from the middle of last week. The bigger change was in the northern portion of the state with this report, but one of the storms last week hit the south pretty good. It is possible that by this week's report, we could see further advances.
Still expecting a cold front hitting us tomorrow, perhaps keeping us in the upper 50s. We rebound into the low 60s for the rest the rest of the work week, and will see a significant warming trend over the weekend. Still expecting low 70s for Sunday and the start of next week. Not just at a sunny spot on the west side, but across town. And maybe even up to the water's edge. It was gorgeous today, and it will be gorgeous all week.
There are signs in the long range forecast that storms will try to break down this high pressure in about a week's time. It does not look like winter is quite over, but we do have a nice respite to enjoy. Too far out right now to say with certainty when rain will return, but I'll be keeping an eye on the model runs and report when they are within 5 days.
Nearly 90% of the state is completely out of drought, with about 10% Abnormally Dry, and only .6% still listed as Moderate Drought. We have made strides. This is from last Tuesday, so does not include rain from the middle of last week. The bigger change was in the northern portion of the state with this report, but one of the storms last week hit the south pretty good. It is possible that by this week's report, we could see further advances.
Sunday, March 10, 2019
Seventy by Sunday.
Looks like we are in store for a warm up. Amazing. Before we get to that, let's talk about the rain. We received over an inch of rain on Saturday, and a little bit more this morning. West side locations recorded up to 1.25 inches since Friday. That is quite a bit more than the half inch I was calling for. The coastal system rolled just enough onshore to give us a heavy hit yesterday. To give you an idea of just how close to the edge we were, Tahoe resorts received from zero to four inches of snow, and it was only about 20F during the snowfall. That is about up to two tenths of an inch of water. Anyway, that system is south of us now. Winds are still out of the south oddly enough. Don't have the time to dig into that.
It looks like we are going to see a big change in the weather pattern. Sun is out this afternoon and Monday looks like it will be quite clear. It will be cold to start. About 40F on the coast. It will be warm in the afternoon though. With the sun on us, it will feel even warmer than 60F. We will see a storm drop out of the north on Tuesday, staying mostly north of us. It will bring a cld front, some wind, and a threat of showers. Ultimately it will be cooler, and will have more cloud cover. Tuesday will be the roughest day of the week.
The storm moves out by Wednesday, and sun returns. We will get some for real high pressure and a warming trend. We should be back into the low 60s by Thursday or Friday and could be hitting 70F by Sunday or Monday. Woot woot folks. It is going to be pretty awesome next weekend. Break out your beach gear.
It looks like we are going to see a big change in the weather pattern. Sun is out this afternoon and Monday looks like it will be quite clear. It will be cold to start. About 40F on the coast. It will be warm in the afternoon though. With the sun on us, it will feel even warmer than 60F. We will see a storm drop out of the north on Tuesday, staying mostly north of us. It will bring a cld front, some wind, and a threat of showers. Ultimately it will be cooler, and will have more cloud cover. Tuesday will be the roughest day of the week.
The storm moves out by Wednesday, and sun returns. We will get some for real high pressure and a warming trend. We should be back into the low 60s by Thursday or Friday and could be hitting 70F by Sunday or Monday. Woot woot folks. It is going to be pretty awesome next weekend. Break out your beach gear.
Thursday, March 7, 2019
Quickie
Only have a few minutes tonight to talk about the weekend system. First, though, more rain than expected today. Nearly another quarter inch since midnight. Impressive. The active and moist air continues, even into tomorrow. Sorry sunshine, but you will have to wait or fight to show yourself on Friday. Oh well. We could still see some breaks in the clouds, with the best chance around sunset. We should still get a partly clear sky overnight, driving those lows down to the low 40s.
It does look we will see some rain on Saturday and Sunday. Not a whole lot, but kind of a continuation of today. Perhaps even a little wetter. The morning on Saturday should break dry, but showers move in late morning or mid day. This storm is cut off from the jet stream, so it is really hard to forecast its trajectory. It mostly depends on how it gets pushed from behind. It will move south, west of us, off the coast, but its eastern edge should brush us decently. Loos like the heaviest rain will fall Saturday night.
It still looks like sunshine for Monday. Where have I heard that before? And that Tuesday storm continue to trend toward diving out of the north and bringing more rain for us. It does look brief though and we are still seeing a high pressure forecast to start building on Wednesday. We could see a week to ten days of sunshine and warmth. Long range is suggesting storms trying to break through middle of the following week, but not quite busting down the door. It has been a very wet six weeks. Not a whole lot of super heavy rain, but a nice sustained rainfall.
It does look we will see some rain on Saturday and Sunday. Not a whole lot, but kind of a continuation of today. Perhaps even a little wetter. The morning on Saturday should break dry, but showers move in late morning or mid day. This storm is cut off from the jet stream, so it is really hard to forecast its trajectory. It mostly depends on how it gets pushed from behind. It will move south, west of us, off the coast, but its eastern edge should brush us decently. Loos like the heaviest rain will fall Saturday night.
It still looks like sunshine for Monday. Where have I heard that before? And that Tuesday storm continue to trend toward diving out of the north and bringing more rain for us. It does look brief though and we are still seeing a high pressure forecast to start building on Wednesday. We could see a week to ten days of sunshine and warmth. Long range is suggesting storms trying to break through middle of the following week, but not quite busting down the door. It has been a very wet six weeks. Not a whole lot of super heavy rain, but a nice sustained rainfall.
Wednesday, March 6, 2019
Head Shaking.
So, we ended up with about an inch and quarter at King and Van Ness. Other gauges on the west side were a bit less (.91" on Western), but we got a fair amount of rain over theist two days. The storm has moved onshore, and the cold front passed. Moderate snow and low elevation rain is falling in the Sierra. Up until this afternoon, it was pretty warm storm, but it is now snowing at Lake Level. And we are looking to dry out over the next two days. We could see a shower tonight. Or two. Lows in the mid 40s. Clouds. Still cloudy in the morning, and a very slight chance of a very light shower. It will remain cool, in the low to mid 50s. But that nice high pressure I've been promising you... its going to take a few more days to arrive.
Latest guidance for the storm this weekend is for it to stay off shore. But not all the way. And that won't happen until Saturday. Thursday night will be cold, as the clouds clear out and temps drop to the low 40s. Some valleys might drop into the upper 30s. And this is March folks. Anyway, Friday looks awesome. Some sunshine. Some solar radiation masking as warmth. Highs in the low to mid 50s. Did I mention that little bit of sunshine. So excited.
I'll look at things tomorrow and get into a little more detail, but that storm that was supposed to stay of the coast is not cooperating. Right now Saturday looks like Friday, but rain could push ashore as early as the afternoon. The rain will be light and mostly a drizzle, but rain none the less. The center of the storm moves south, off the coast, before falling apart and sweeping inland into the southwest. We see a break on Monday. Remember that storm that was to stay to our north next week. The GFS is now bullish on it diving south far enough to bring us some rain next Tuesday and/or Wednesday. But it is late winter folks, and models can be quirky this time of year. Let's wait until later in this weekend to really forecast next week. Regardless, it looks to remain cool through the period, with highs in the 50s and lows in the 40s. Winter has been a real bugger this year. But at least we have our water back on the ground and fat fat snow pack up in the mountains.
Latest guidance for the storm this weekend is for it to stay off shore. But not all the way. And that won't happen until Saturday. Thursday night will be cold, as the clouds clear out and temps drop to the low 40s. Some valleys might drop into the upper 30s. And this is March folks. Anyway, Friday looks awesome. Some sunshine. Some solar radiation masking as warmth. Highs in the low to mid 50s. Did I mention that little bit of sunshine. So excited.
I'll look at things tomorrow and get into a little more detail, but that storm that was supposed to stay of the coast is not cooperating. Right now Saturday looks like Friday, but rain could push ashore as early as the afternoon. The rain will be light and mostly a drizzle, but rain none the less. The center of the storm moves south, off the coast, before falling apart and sweeping inland into the southwest. We see a break on Monday. Remember that storm that was to stay to our north next week. The GFS is now bullish on it diving south far enough to bring us some rain next Tuesday and/or Wednesday. But it is late winter folks, and models can be quirky this time of year. Let's wait until later in this weekend to really forecast next week. Regardless, it looks to remain cool through the period, with highs in the 50s and lows in the 40s. Winter has been a real bugger this year. But at least we have our water back on the ground and fat fat snow pack up in the mountains.
Tuesday, March 5, 2019
It's Back.
Rain has returned to the region after a long hiatus of almost 40 hours. Hope you were able to keep your flower beds from drying out. Just about 50F out there this morning. We won't see that thermometer move too much today. High expected to be around 56F. The rain will come and go over the next few days. This storm is pushing onshore to our north, and dragging a weak AR into the state to our south. We are in the middle of all that and surprisingly will see much less precipitation that other regions nearby. As the storm moves ashore Wednesday, a cold front will swing south and the storm will align with the Sierra, dropping a foot or more of snow. Rain at lake level today.
There is a pretty wide range of forecast for our area. Some have as little as a tenth of an inch of rain for each 12 hour period through Thursday morning. Others have up to a half inch. That is a big range. The coastal mountains will for sure squeeze a good amount out of this system, but here in town, we might see closer tot he low end. My forecast for today is showers, moderate at times, with breaks in between. About 2/10", with most of that falling after lunch. The system will ramp up a bit this evening, but precipitation rates in town will remain on the low side. Another 3/10" overnight for a total of 1/2" by Wednesday morning. When the storm moves ashore mid day tomorrow, we will have a brief, but moderate plus rainfall just after the cold front passes through. Temps remain in the 50s through this period.
With the cold front, Wednesday night will be a bit cooler, down in the upper 40s. Rain showers should be lighter by dark, but could persist into Friday morning. We see the chances for showers decrease through the period, and any accumulation will be light to minimal. Thursday will be cloudy with a high in the low to mid 50s. Thursday night will have some clearing, with a low of about 40F. Chilly, eh? Friday, more clearing and high again in the mid 50s. Even cooler Friday night.
By Saturday we should see a decent amount of sunshine, and high pressure is actually planning on moving in and setting up camp. It will be a challenge though, as another storm will be just off our coast. The weekend could be nice, but we could be brushed by rain as that system drops south just to our west. We all want our sunshine, and we all have received enough water for now. The plants need to grow. The kids need to get outside. As do the adults. Regardless of this weekend, that high pressure will struggle to stick around for the following week to ten days. It would really feel like spring is that happens. Look for a warming trend, and with luck, we will be in the low 60s by Tuesday and even warming by next Friday.
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| December had some great surf. A little tougher to find a good day since. Scotts Creek, December, 2017. |
There is a pretty wide range of forecast for our area. Some have as little as a tenth of an inch of rain for each 12 hour period through Thursday morning. Others have up to a half inch. That is a big range. The coastal mountains will for sure squeeze a good amount out of this system, but here in town, we might see closer tot he low end. My forecast for today is showers, moderate at times, with breaks in between. About 2/10", with most of that falling after lunch. The system will ramp up a bit this evening, but precipitation rates in town will remain on the low side. Another 3/10" overnight for a total of 1/2" by Wednesday morning. When the storm moves ashore mid day tomorrow, we will have a brief, but moderate plus rainfall just after the cold front passes through. Temps remain in the 50s through this period.
With the cold front, Wednesday night will be a bit cooler, down in the upper 40s. Rain showers should be lighter by dark, but could persist into Friday morning. We see the chances for showers decrease through the period, and any accumulation will be light to minimal. Thursday will be cloudy with a high in the low to mid 50s. Thursday night will have some clearing, with a low of about 40F. Chilly, eh? Friday, more clearing and high again in the mid 50s. Even cooler Friday night.
By Saturday we should see a decent amount of sunshine, and high pressure is actually planning on moving in and setting up camp. It will be a challenge though, as another storm will be just off our coast. The weekend could be nice, but we could be brushed by rain as that system drops south just to our west. We all want our sunshine, and we all have received enough water for now. The plants need to grow. The kids need to get outside. As do the adults. Regardless of this weekend, that high pressure will struggle to stick around for the following week to ten days. It would really feel like spring is that happens. Look for a warming trend, and with luck, we will be in the low 60s by Tuesday and even warming by next Friday.
Sunday, March 3, 2019
1.87, or Almost 2.
We saw the rain cut off abruptly yesterday by 11AM. A short period of rain around 5:30 added a few hundredths of an inch, but not much else. Then, from around 5:30 through 7AM this morning, we received almost 2/10th of an inch. All told, we are sitting at just under two inches of rain here in town since Friday night. Not a bad run, and a quite a bit more rain than we saw through the middle of last week. Before we get into the work week forecast, just wanted to shout out that 86% of the state of California is now completely out of drought conditions, with just about 2% listed as Moderate Drought and the rest Abnormally Dry. Drought is still listed in the far north eastern portion of the state, along with dry conditions. San Diego, along the southern rim of the Salton Sea to the Arizona border is also listed as dry. We have received more rain since this report, with more on the way. We continue to move in the right direction. Perhaps even more important than this surface water designations the fact that the Sierra is holding a ton of snow, a good portion of it well be 6000 feet. This will mean melt water well into the summer. If we can luck into a cool a spring, we will be in amazing shape come October.
We could see some showers during the day Sunday, but they will be light, and not very likely. Maybe another tenth of an inch could fall by this evening. We are expecting some clearing tonight, but it won't be a star gazer night. Moderate cloud cover keeps from dropping to far into the 40s; expect a low of about 48F. Monday continues will some cloud cover, and is a break in the rain action. Mid to upper 50s expected. If we get a bit more sun than forecast, we could see some 60F readings. Winds are pretty light through this period. Then the next system to our west begins to push slowly onshore late Monday night. We could see some light rain before morning, but the storm is not expected to arrive until during the day Tuesday.
Like I said, this one is moving slowly. It is cut off from the jet, and will need the storm behind it to push it east. Monday night we will dip into the 40s again, and right back up to the upper 50s for Tuesday. Showery weather increases during the afternoon on Tuesday. What is interesting is this storm will be tapping into a sub tropical moisture stream, just like the one we had over the weekend. This will bring moderate to heavy rains to areas to our south, while the storm center north of us brings moderate rains there. We are basically going to be surrounded by heavier rains, but here in town, we are only expecting less than a quarter inch during the day Tuesday, and about a quarter inch Tuesday night. Regardless, it looks like the heaviest rain will come at night. And it will stay warm, in the 50F overnight.
Wednesday, the bulk of the storm will be east of us, with some heavy snow in the high Sierra, and moderate rain at Lake Tahoe. Looks like that Fabulous February is over. We should still plan on showers Wednesday, especially in the morning. In fact, the showery conditions might not end until late Thursday. At the very least, we will have high humidity through then. Day time temps continue in the 50s, with night time lows dropping back into the 40s. Thursday night we will drop to the low 40s, as the clouds clear out a bit.
The good news is it looks like the showery weather really should clear out of here Friday and even more so for the weekend. High pressure is planning to set up. Yes, you read that right. A weak high pressure. We might even warm back up into the 60s this coming weekend. And even better news than that, is it might stick around into early next week. Another storm is coming for California, but the guidance currently suggest it will be hitting SoCal and northern Mexico, keeping us dry. This is good news for alleviating that Abnormally Dry condition in the very south, and well as letting us dry out a bit.
If you have not started, this is great time to get out and work in the garden. I keep a winter garden, and just finished a spring planting of peas and carrots. Even if you only maintain a summer garden, get out there and pull those weeds that are likely growing in your beds, and turn the soil. It is not too early to start planting seeds. Even for summer veggies like zucchini or cucumber even. It can take a while to get these plants established to give a bountiful crop. It is early March, and it will take 10 or more days to get seedlings, and the good news is the soil will not be drying out for months at this rate. That means you don't need to get out there and water every day or run the risk of having young plants, with limited root systems die on you. By the time we see the need for more regular watering, those plants will be mature and able to handle short drier periods. With some sunshine looking to come our way, soils will warm up, and plants will be growing. Spring is just around the corner.
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| Emigrant Basin. Main Street. |
We could see some showers during the day Sunday, but they will be light, and not very likely. Maybe another tenth of an inch could fall by this evening. We are expecting some clearing tonight, but it won't be a star gazer night. Moderate cloud cover keeps from dropping to far into the 40s; expect a low of about 48F. Monday continues will some cloud cover, and is a break in the rain action. Mid to upper 50s expected. If we get a bit more sun than forecast, we could see some 60F readings. Winds are pretty light through this period. Then the next system to our west begins to push slowly onshore late Monday night. We could see some light rain before morning, but the storm is not expected to arrive until during the day Tuesday.
Like I said, this one is moving slowly. It is cut off from the jet, and will need the storm behind it to push it east. Monday night we will dip into the 40s again, and right back up to the upper 50s for Tuesday. Showery weather increases during the afternoon on Tuesday. What is interesting is this storm will be tapping into a sub tropical moisture stream, just like the one we had over the weekend. This will bring moderate to heavy rains to areas to our south, while the storm center north of us brings moderate rains there. We are basically going to be surrounded by heavier rains, but here in town, we are only expecting less than a quarter inch during the day Tuesday, and about a quarter inch Tuesday night. Regardless, it looks like the heaviest rain will come at night. And it will stay warm, in the 50F overnight.
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| We are in the green eye of the storm on Tuesday. |
Wednesday, the bulk of the storm will be east of us, with some heavy snow in the high Sierra, and moderate rain at Lake Tahoe. Looks like that Fabulous February is over. We should still plan on showers Wednesday, especially in the morning. In fact, the showery conditions might not end until late Thursday. At the very least, we will have high humidity through then. Day time temps continue in the 50s, with night time lows dropping back into the 40s. Thursday night we will drop to the low 40s, as the clouds clear out a bit.
The good news is it looks like the showery weather really should clear out of here Friday and even more so for the weekend. High pressure is planning to set up. Yes, you read that right. A weak high pressure. We might even warm back up into the 60s this coming weekend. And even better news than that, is it might stick around into early next week. Another storm is coming for California, but the guidance currently suggest it will be hitting SoCal and northern Mexico, keeping us dry. This is good news for alleviating that Abnormally Dry condition in the very south, and well as letting us dry out a bit.
If you have not started, this is great time to get out and work in the garden. I keep a winter garden, and just finished a spring planting of peas and carrots. Even if you only maintain a summer garden, get out there and pull those weeds that are likely growing in your beds, and turn the soil. It is not too early to start planting seeds. Even for summer veggies like zucchini or cucumber even. It can take a while to get these plants established to give a bountiful crop. It is early March, and it will take 10 or more days to get seedlings, and the good news is the soil will not be drying out for months at this rate. That means you don't need to get out there and water every day or run the risk of having young plants, with limited root systems die on you. By the time we see the need for more regular watering, those plants will be mature and able to handle short drier periods. With some sunshine looking to come our way, soils will warm up, and plants will be growing. Spring is just around the corner.
Saturday, March 2, 2019
Over Producer.
Last night was wet. One and half inches so far; far exceeding forecasts. Yesterday I saw the GFS bump up the 9PM to 9AM rainfall amounts to almost this range, and thought we might get hit. Decided not to post, as I was tired last night. Well, we ended up with the top end of that range. The same GFS run suggest that rain backs off abruptly at 9AM, with only a tenth of an inch expected in the next 12 hour period. Storm is supposed to shift east. It is also really warm out there this morning, with the temp currently 57.4F on Western Ave. That is about the high temp forecasted for today. So wet morning, and less wet by noon. Showery weather should stick around into the night, so not dry and sunny. NOAA still forecasting up to an additional 3/4 of an inch of rain by Sunday afternoon. We might get that much, but I'm expecting the majority of it hitting before noon today.
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| Cold Smoke at Kirkwood. February, 2018. |
Gonna be a short post, as I need to get on with the day. A break in the weather on Monday, followed by more rain middle of next week. At least we got one day of clean, moderate plus, long period swell on Friday. That was a nice break. Been hard getting in the water this past month, but the snow has been stellar. Now with the warmer air, we are back to the more typical Sierra Cement set up. But the mountains are stacked for spring, and we might be lucky enough to end this cycle with some cold storms, as the regions troughs and highs move around.
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