Clearly, the weather is fall like.

Nights are slightly cooler these days, even when we have some fog or cloud cover.  Been hanging around in the upper 50s across town, but with more cool air coming our way, those over night lows will be dropping into the mid 50s by next week.  In contrast, during the summer, we barely dip below 60F most nights.  And there was that rain thing this morning.  Not sure if you knew what that stuff was.  I doubt we measure even a tenth of an inch, but around 7:30 this morning we started to pick up a drizzle at the house, that seemed to come to a stop on our way to school at 8:30.  But, yeah, everyone we say was stoked on it.  Smiles abounded.  Where else do the locals show such splendor when it rains?  Well, this might make you happy then.  More chances for rain are on the way.  And while even run of the models seems to shift the bulk of the systems more north as they come into the short term, based on this morning, I'd suspect we will see more in the coming week.  And if it is not wet, then I bet it is going to be fine and sunny.

Old and new sit side by side in Manhattan.  

This afternoon looks nice, with small swell in the water, and slight northerly winds developing.  Crisper day, as it started with cooler air, and clouds, and it will take more work to warm things up.  Tonight we will see some lingering clouds, but the marine layer is not likely to develop, with the low pressure still in charge.  So, based on that, I suspect Thursday will have a very nice morning.  Cool and crisp, with some moderate warming.  A bit warmer than today.  By Friday the next system up stream should be starting to effect our weather.  This one does not currently seem to be packing the south winds we had yesterday afternoon, which leads me to believe we could stay dry this run.  Still, greatest chance of showers will be Friday afternoon, into evening.  Still planning on clearing out mostly on Sunday, with some sunshine and warming.  Along with a chance for light winds.  And yeah, there is more surf on the way, with a possible large long period west swell for late in the weekend.  Monday could be a good one.

Anyway, more systems still upstream.  Current model runs suggest still a brushing by the first system early in the week, but with a change to strong high pressure filling in behind it.  A few days ago, several days of off and on rain was in the charts.  That too was followed by a decent strength high, but not until Friday or so.  Anyway, after this series of passing storms, we could see a return to the warmer, sunnier, more offshore weather that gets me excited to go hang out on the beach.  

Let the Rainy Season begin!

Rain has moved into the state in the top north west corner, with Crescent City reporting light rain as of 6AM this morning.  More is to come for them, with rain in the forecast for the next week.  This morning we have fog settled on us, with a band of clear running from southwest to northeast, ahead of the cold front and rain, to our north.  Fog clears out north of Point Reyes, and it is clear to just north of Point Mendocino, along the coastline.  Pretty cool morning visible satellite image.  North of there, the frontal clouds take over, with the rain band just barely in the state.  Rain is prevalent along the OR/WA coast, and southern BC is expecting quite a bit of rain over the next five days, exceeding seven inches in areas.  It still looks like we could get a little shower, but unless a piece of this breaks off, and hits us solid, it will be hard to tell that it is rain, as opposed to foggy drizzle.  Anyway, best chances still seem to be a few hours after sunset tonight.  Don't be expecting too much.  Maybe one of you folks in the local hills will have more luck.

Central Park painters painting.

Next system up stream is still expected to arrive Friday, and it still looks to dive deeper south and hold more water.  Moderate chance for rain late Friday, and into Saturday.  And the models still suggest some rain next week, as early as Monday, with possible significant rainfall for the entire northern portion of the state by next Thursday.  While all of this is pretty far out, especially for forecasting in the shoulder season, the fact that some iteration of these systems has been on the charts for several days now, leads to growing belief that rain is on the way.  My dance lessons look to be paying off.  Anyway, more on this as we move through the current system.

A break in the grey starts later Wednesday, and Thursday should be sunny.  Clouds return on Friday, and things clear out Saturday night.  Sunday could be pleasant enough.  Highs in the upper 60s to finish the work week, and in the low 70s after that.  Monday will be clouding up again, with more chances of rain.  Tough call right now in regard to the exact weather, but plan accordingly.  If you have outdoor plans for Saturday, think about rain gear.  I will update here tomorrow or Thursday with a better idea of the timing of things for this weekend.

Living on the edge.

A whole bunch of rain systems are brewing and marching across the north Pacific this week.  We have some swell in the water thanks to the first one, which is running ashore some time tomorrow.  Three to four inches of rain for the OR/WA coastline, with some spillover into the northern reaches of California.  Pretty much all of it falling west of the Cascades.  Moderate rain down to Point Mendocino, with a chance of some light sprinkles as far south as Monterey.  Today we are seeing developing south winds from this system, and that will increase our marine layer, which is still hanging just over the water, and cool us down from yesterday.  Sunday was a nice one though.

Brooklyn summertime.  

High of 76 today becomes a high of 67 tomorrow, as fog, southwest winds and a mini cold front combine to keep us even cooler.  That chance of rain begins about mid day, and peaks just a few hours after dark.  Wednesday looks like the reverse of Tuesday, with near identical high pressure.  Chance of showers dissipates late morning, and the winds going from calm to northerly by afternoon.  Clouds should clear out before mid day.  Thursday looks nice enough, and mostly sunny, but not seeing much of a warm up.  Friday might see some slightly warmer air ahead of a second rain system that plans to scrape by just to our north.  This one looks like it will carry more water further south, but is currently modeled to drop most of that just offshore to our west.  Still, slight chance for more moderate rain later Friday and early Saturday.  Kind of promising.

Speaking of which, when we glance into the mid and longer term fantasies, we could be looking at a serious rain maker for next week, arriving mid day Monday, and lasting through Wednesday.  If we were to believe the current run, it would total up to about three fourths of an inch locally, with more in the Sierra with rain all the way down to a bit south of Point Conception.  Exciting, ain't it.  Don't hold your breath.  And don't hold it for the Santa Ana type high modeled for the following Thursday and weekend.  Just something to consider when laying out plans.  But if you do have some stuff in the yard you don't want getting wet, consider cleaning that up today.  And start getting your wellies and rain slickers out of the closet.  The wet season is starting to feel promising.

Confidence grow for spectacular weekend, and then a rainy week for some.

First, tomorrow we will see the beginning of a nice warming and clearing trend that should last through at least Monday.  So we might be able to get away with complete fog less wonderment, but we will be warming back up a bit.  Mid to upper 70s for Friday, with Sunday peaking in the mid 80s.  As will the swell.  A decently tightly packed storm is spinning off southeast of the Aleutians, and it should bring nice head high waves to town, and overhead to double overhead surf up the coast.  Combine that with a little offshore flow, and the late weekend looks like another prime punch of swell.  Monday will be a bit cooler, but still another nice day, with minimal fog, light wind and fun surf.  Not really too much to complain about.

Speaking of not complaining, things begin to become interesting by the middle of next week.  The PNW is expected to start getting hammered with heavy rains.  The first system moves ashore next Tuesday, returning us to more of an onshore flow.  Or foggy mornings.  Wednesday we could see light rain moving through just to our north, possibly bringing us a light shower or two.  High pressure fills in behind it, returning warmth and sun to finish the week.  But, that high is being pumped up by a second, wetter storm lining up to slam the PNW late Friday, and possibly driving heavier rain south into our area for next weekend.  While these scenarios are still a 6 to 10 days out, the consistency in the model runs is driving confidence that more water is headed toward the state.  Or, in other words, you should focus on cleaning up the yard this weekend and early next week.  We could be in for some October rains.  We can only hope.  And if your yard is looking good, get outside and enjoy the weather.  This Sunday looks pretty spectacular with solid surf to ride or watch.