Change we can believe in.

More sunshine this coming week.  Scotts Creek Beach.

But, if you are placing bets at this point, you are still a gambling man.  Regardless, our weather pattern has started to change, and the results will become more apparent in about a week's time.  The high pressure that has sat on top of the central California coast since late November has finally shifted to our north.  For the time being, it is still hard to tell this by looking out the window.  Or even by looking at the short term forecast.  Beautiful sun and mid 60s are expected around the bay right through the holiday weekend.  Nights are starting to cool a bit, with lows dipping down below 40F in most locations.  Still, we are not looking at any real freezes for the time being.  Although, highs do begin to dip by Monday and into Tuesday.  Perhaps only 60F, or a bit cooler by then.

So, in short, great weather on tap for the upcoming week.  Get out there and make the best of this holiday.  It looks like we also have some moderate surf on and calm winds on tap for the weekend.  Nothing huge, but sure will be plenty of fun, especially with the opportunity for the crowds to spread out. New swell peaks Friday evening.  Best bet will be Saturday morning.  Light offshores expected.  Also, there are great groomer conditions up in the ski country.  Sure, terrain is limited, but the surface is prime for ripping.  Word is KW and Alpine have some of the best surface conditions.  And if you like steeps, chair 6 at KW has perhaps the steepest run open in Tahoe.  If you prefer variety, take a look at Northstar or Heavenly.  They have by far the most terrain open.

How about that long term?  Well, models are slowly trying to get a grasp on what will happen next.  Right now there seems to be a slight inclination toward rain.  And by rain, I mean torrents.  If we do move toward a wet solution, we are expecting a very wet solution.  And if it goes that way, expect a start of the storms to begin sometime between next Wednesday and next Saturday.  And plan for a week plus of mostly wet weather.  A downer?  I don't know.  In some ways a week of rain will mix things up a bit. I mean, all this sunshine and warmth can get a little boring.  And we need the water.  And we need the snow.  More on this in the coming days, as we get a better handle on specifics.  Finally, it should be mentioned, by a "week plus", I mean this thing could possibly stretch into February.  Do you remember last season after our six weeks of glorious sun?  It then rained for three months.  And we have a lot to make up for this year.  Of course, another solution gives us more dry weather.  Different, but the same.

Just a typical mid winter day on the Monterey Bay.  Steamer Lane, Santa Cruz.

In summary, more clear sky 60F+ degrees days through Sunday.  More of the same through at least Tuesday, although a bit cooler.  Pattern change take its local effect next Wednesday through Saturday.  Either quite wet, and a bit cooler, or more dry, and perhaps a tad warmer.  Best bet is on the wet solution now.  But that is slightly better than 50/50.

And water those gardens.  We are still at least a week off from rain.