Saturday, January 21, 2012

That broke up nicely. The next one looking like it is getting stronger.

This guy has been wintering along West Cliff Drive.  
Today is quite nice out there.  It even started out pretty good.  Sure, we had a few showers during the morning hours, but there was more sun than rain here in Santa Cruz.  The afternoon is staying fairly cloudy, but it does look like the showers have come to an end.  For now.  This will be a great evening for a sunset stroll with an ocean view.  Tumultuous seas and a cloudy horizon should offer up some nice sunset watching.  If you are planning for an outing tomorrow, get on it early.  This next system seems to have split in two, allowing for the first wave to come a bit earlier and the second wave to last a bit longer.  More on that below.

As for the Sierra, this system did not quite pack the cold that was anticipated.  Snow levels stayed pretty high through the evening hours last night allowing all rain below 8000 feet.  Above that is was really a snow/rain mix until the temperature began to drop around 10pm.  The result is both good and bad.  Sure, snow totals were a lot less than hoped for (ranging from 6" @ 7500' to 18" @ 10,000') but the snow that did fall is certified Sierra Cement.  Exactly what we need to get our base going.  It would have been much worse to have 40" of blower that would just not stick to the earth and stone.  So, lees snow than expected, but the perfect base building material.  And today, snow continues with colder temp, so the surface is improving.  We could see another foot plus from this next system, so when all is said and down, we could be seeing totals of 4 feet at the higher elevations and 18" at lake level.  Not a huge snowfall, but enough to kick start the season into gear.

Anyway, the storm coming in tomorrow now looks a bit a head of schedule, with rain beginning in the city by noon.  Of course, this is just an estimate, or best bet.  But if you do have outdoor activities planned, it would be best to be out early and enjoying the morning.  Rain spreads south and east through the day, with the first wave of the storm filling in through the afternoon and evening.  It now looks like this system could pack quite a punch with another few inches of rain.  The bulk of the precipitation will be along the Mendocino coast where over 2 inches may fall.  San francisco is looking one and half inches and here in Santa Cruz we could see just about an inch.  All in all, fairly wet.  Like I said, this thing is coming in two waves and the second should hit us in the early morning hours of Monday.  The biggest change to the forecast is that it now looks like clearing will need to wait until overnight on Monday or early Tuesday.  The good news in all this is (1) the much needed water and snow and (2) the warming trend that will follow mid week.  And current long term is looking dry and clear.

Storm clouds riding up over the mountains and the Monterey Peninsula.  

So, after a nice morning, rain fills in quickly along the coast on Sunday.  This persist through Monday, with showery weather for the evening commute.  Tuesday should have breaking clouds and by Wednesday we should be planning for sun and mid 60s.

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