Wait and see.

A clear sky sunset will be rare in the coming week.  

Do you feel like it is winter finally?  That would be the frosty mornings we have been having.  And that crisp north wind that filled in over the past few days.  Signs of things to come.  So, today we have a few last minute reminders.  First, turn off that sprinkler and irrigation system for the time being.  You can wait another few days if you'd like, but once that rain really begins to fall from the sky, this would be a good year to conserve some water.  With luck, we could end up within 20% of average, but there is just a good of chance that this year will return us to drought.  Have you seen Lexington Reservoir?  It is nearly empty. Like actually empty.  When we return to another dry cycle, if you really need it, you can turn them back on.  But it looks like this cycle will really moisten the ground.  With the low sun of winter, it could be all that we need for a while.  On the other hand, we could get another series of wet and turbulent systems after this one.  With this much going on right now, there is really no point at looking at the long term models.  Solutions will have little reliability until we move through all the weather we are expecting this week.

The other thing to think about, when the rain comes, is anything that would collect standing water and allow mosquitos to breed.  Flower pot trays for instance.  Watering buckets.  Top Soil bags.  In short, clean up the yard and put things away.  That also goes for things you do not want to get wet, such as the patio seat cushions you have been enjoying the warm afternoons in.  Put it away.  And get ready for some more wind. It could get strong.  Which reminds me.  All that wind we have had since the last real rain has probably blown down some more leaves.  And could have filled your gutters.  You may want to find time this evening for a quick cleaning of any of the pathways water will take to flow off your home and property.  You don't want any local flooding.  If your a good citizen, you could make sure the street drain near your home is clean, clear and ready to take water.

Think about making some comfort food.  Turkey Pot Pie is on our menu for later this week.  You will want to stay cozy, as the rain continues to look likely.  The real heavy stuff will stay well north of us.  Up around the Oregon border.  They could be looking at 10 inches of precipitation by Monday morning.  Down in our neck of the woods, the numbers range from just about an inch at Hearst Castle and over three inches in Santa Rosa.  Generally, the further south you go, the less rain you get.  Dramatically.  San Diego looks to stay dry through this period.  Tahoe might get 3 1/2 inches.  Higher along the Sierra Crest.  Quite a bit less as you head south toward Mammoth Lakes.  Regardless, for those of us around the Bay we are expecting about 1.5-2.5 inches.

Late day waves near Ano Nuevo Island.  Calm evenings were the name of the game for the past six weeks.

Exact timing will remain a mystery until we are within 24-36 hours.  The further north and west you are, the earlier the onset.  Still looking like showers will begin late tomorrow for the northern reaches of our area, and spread south through the morning Thursday.  Santa Cruz could be lucky enough to avoid rain until Thursday afternoon.  Once it starts, it looks fairly constant through sometime on Saturday.  That second wave will be soon on the heels of the first, with little to no break in between.  So rain essentially through the weekend, and to start next week.