Clouds this morning give over to rain. A chance at a break on Sunday.

It has felt like an endless summer around here.  Waddel Creek.  

11:50AM Edit:  It looks like rain has moved ashore just north of Pt. Reyes.  Expect that to fill in and move southeast.

Low lying clouds are the name of the game this morning, making for a pretty darn nice sunrise.  A rather crisp one at that.  Cold morning temps hung around again this morning, as a clear sky until just before sunrise aloud for another night of cooling.  But it was just a wee bit warmer today.  There was not quite the same thick layer of frost we had the past few mornings.  But what about the future?  Northern California is already in the grips of heavy rain.  That entire system is edging south today, and will be filling in through the afternoon and evening.  Areas north of SF can expect rain as early as the lunch hour.  As we move south toward Santa Cruz, the evening commute seems likely to be wet.  Big Sur will need to wait until after night fall.

Round One is not super crazy heavy.  But it ain't just light showers either.  Plan for moderate rain over night and through the Friday morning commute.  And it will be a bit cooler than previously stated.  Doubtful we will get out of the mid to high 50s on Friday.  Overnight looks high 30s Thursday, maybe 40 on Friday and dropping to the mid 30s for Saturday night.  As for that rain, things will begin to settle down in the late morning Friday.  But not for long, as Round Two is following close behind.  This could give us some heavy rain for the evening commute on Friday.  Be careful out there, as it is Friday, there will be lots of folks on the road.  I imagine some will even try to get up to Tahoe Friday night.  Silly folks.  Rain continues through the night and into the day Saturday.  Saturday looks like a great day to cozy up inside.  If you have a fire place, you may want to get it stoked.  We are making Turkey Pot Pie for dinner on Friday to warm those bones.

Waiting for a blanket of snow.  Red Lakes Peak, Carson Pass in the background.  Whiskey Slide, Kirkood.

By late in the day Saturday, things again begin to die off.  Breezes and rain will lighten.  Overnight we could see just a few showers, and Sunday could break with just a wee bit of sun.  It is looking like this is your day to get outside.  If you know where the waterfalls are, you may want to take a hike.  Wear good waterproof boots though, as the ground is gonna get soggy.  If you want to day trip to ski, I'd suggest Sunday, as the winds will be lighter and there will be a break in the storms.  Saturday should be fun as well, but full on storm riding and driving.  And the winds may keeps some lifts on hold.  But more on Tahoe later.  Enjoy Sunday, because it looks like Round Three will be moving in on Sunday night and into Monday.  Round Four may stay north of us, or it could provide more rain through the first half on next week.  After that, it looks like the second half of next week, and the weekend, could be clear with some warming.  Like mid 60s by next Friday.  With sun.

So, if you are a snow enthusiast, you should be stoked.  Sure, the forecast for snow amounts has dropped over the past few days, but we are going to get like an huge increase in our natural snow pack.  Reasonably, we could be looking at a foot around the lake, 2-3 feet at the resort bases and 4-5 feet at the summits.  Is that enough to open all the raddest terrain?  Probably not, but if you are extreme, you like low tide anyway.  Right?  Regardless, by Sunday morning, we should see way more terrain starting to open in Tahoe.  Enough snow to cover most of the sticks and stones.  And it is starting off pretty wet, so we will get that stuff nice and plastered.  And it will be a good start on the steeps and exposed terrain.  Regardless of what we get, have fun, and play safe.  It will still be early season conditions once this system moves through.  And if you are planning to drive up, be safe.  And remember that Friday night will be a shit show, with crowded roads, inexperienced drivers, strong winds and heavy snow.  If you must ski Saturday, at least the roads will be way less crowded in the pre-dawn hours.

Calm weather and a clear sky will not be the name of the game over the next five days.  Ano Nuevo.

So.  Rain fills in today.  Moderate, and falls over night.  More rain fills in tomorrow.  Heavy, and falls overnight.  Tapering some time on Saturday, probably late.  Sunday will see breaks of sun, but there could be some showers.  Plan to head outdoors, but be prepared with a shell.  More rain Sunday night.  Clearing probable on Monday evening, but another round may keeps us wet through Wednesday.  Clear and warm for a few days, at least, after that.