Confidence builds for rain event Tuesday.

Ah.  Pretty awesome out there right now.  Isn't it.  Enjoy.  This really is the best winter we have had in a long time, if you like warm, sunny and good beach days.  Kind of the worse winter in quite a while if you love the snow.  I like both, so it is always a split for me.  Just like the jetstream seems to be doing this season.  Part of the reason we are enjoying such great weather, and pretty darn good surf, this winter is that most storms just don't make it.  Our big strong bubble of high pressure beats down nearly everything that comes into its path.  And it looks like it will beat this next storm down quite a bit as it approaches the coast.

Kirkwood has some good coverage and decent conditions.  All things considered.  Get out and play.

Weather to remain winning until late on Monday.  Tomorrow could be even a touch warmer.  Mid to high 60s on the coast in Santa Cruz.  If you prefer a bit more warmth, take a hike in the SC Mountains where they could see some spots topping 70F.  Yup, it is February.  Things will cool a bit on Monday, and it still looks like rain, wind and mid 50s for Tuesday.  More snow you think?  Not much.  This storm will spill most of its energy right along the coast. where we could see over an inch of rain.  Unfortunately, the energy will get split, with the big chunk of it headed south, along the coast.  I mean, we want snow, and we need a snowpack to store water, and all the major reservoirs are inland.  On the other hand, San Diego could see some of their dust get settled by a few showers.  Yay.

There is still a chance that some moisture will break through to the west.  But don't get your hopes up.  Just a day of bleak weather for the coast and valley.  Can't complain much, as sun returns to us on Wednesday and through the end of next week.  There are signs of a chance of a change starting to show up on the models.  And some of the teleconnection forecast are kind of looking like they are going in the right direction.  At this point, it does not look like a storm train set up that we really need.  But instead, our bubble starts to move around a bit, allowing brief glimpses of a storm door being open.  So, in short, it might rain again later this month.

Or stick around the coast.  There has been some very good surf over the past few months.
And despite some fog, great weather.

Short term we have a fabulous weekend.  Get out there and enjoy it.  If you don't, you are just being silly.  I hear there is a football game on this weekend.  Skip it.  Or at least skip the first half.  This kind of gorgeous is just too good to miss.  Cooler with increasing clouds Monday.  Rain starts sometime between 5PM Monday and noon on Tuesday.  Moderate rains should last 24 hours.  Say an inch plus.  Clearing and a little warming, perhaps the low 60s, for the rest of the work week.  Slight chance for precipitation after that.