Thursday, February 16, 2012

Weekend forecast turning toward dry.

Yes, but before we discuss that, holy cow was it cold and windy yesterday!  Stiff breezes kept everyone on their toes, and well bundled up, at the downtown Farmer's Market.  Many farms choose not to set up their canopies for fear they would blow down the street.  Out on West Cliff it was blowing strong.  Folks were double hand carrying their surfboards.  But by 8PM last night there was essentially no wind blowing in town.  That is good news for the surfers who decided to go look for waves this morning.  While a bit lumpy, things were glassy up and down the county.  And more good news for today is that we should see a bit of warming.  But that will be short lived.

Sunny and low 60s in Santa Cruz for today and Friday.  Light morning winds, with perhaps a touch of offshore.  Cooler afternoon breezes up to 10 knots or so along the water.  It now looks like Friday will be the warmer of the two days.  But not by much.  Basically T-shirt warm in the sun through the middle of the day; Hoody chilly in the shade, in the breeze, or along the waters edge.  Then we see the return of clouds and high 50s for the weekend.  This storm looks to be breaking up and current thinking has this thing passing just to our north.  Greatest chance of sprinkles the further north you go.  Rain for Oregon.  Just a brushing, with some drizzle on Saturday morning.  A second, slightly feistier wave could impact us Monday morning.  Keep an eye on this one, as it could lag through the day.  So basically, plan your BBQ for Sunday.

After a cool Tuesday, things look to warm up next week with a new high pressure bubble setting up camp just off the coast.  This thing should keep rain and clouds well to our north through Friday or so.  It actually could get quite nice around Wednesday and Thursday.  It really depends how this thing sets up and if it will pump some hot air up from the southwest.  I kind of hope not, as we will be up trying to enjoy the snow, and continued cold will keep things wintery.

Speaking of which, this storm may hit Tahoe a bit harder than the coast.  But not much.  Expect a dusting to three inches with the Saturday storm.  So, you can get out there and enjoy the skiing without dealing with blizzards and low visibility.  But then again, it won't be powder day.  But it is going to be one of the best weekends of the year so far.  Sunday should have a mostly cloudy sky and maybe some morning flurries.  But the sun could come out for a bit in the afternoon.  The Monday storm is a bit of a cut off system, so snow amounts will really depend on where is goes.  It could be a complete miss, so sun is possible Monday.  So is a little wind.  Or it could come at us right off the water and drop another few inches.  But hopes of accumulating a foot between now and Tuesday have all but disappeared.

For now, a great end to the week.  Clouds and cooler temps for the weekend. Slight chance of light rain. Sunday look like the best chance for sun.  Monday is up in the air.  Warming trend next week.  Chance of rain for the last weekend of the month.  Possible storm train to follow.  Will monitor.

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