Getting aggressive.

Well, kind of.  At least aggressive for the pattern and for the winter.  What I am talking about is the chance for a brief rain event here on the coast early next week.  Don't worry too much.  We are still in line for an excellent weekend, starting this afternoon.  If yesterday was any indication, things are going to warm up nicely.  The mercury was only reading about 64F yesterday, but that sun must be getting higher in the sky, because it felt more like t-shirt weather than sweater weather through the middle of the day Thursday.  More of that today and through the weekend.  If anything it will get a touch warmer and a bit less breezy.  Not that there was much wind yesterday.

Cowell's has been breaking since Thanksgiving.  Great way to close out the day.

The off shore wind event never really materialized this week, but it was overall fairly calm.  The exposed surf zones had some weirdness to it yesterday afternoon, but it was not hard to find some clean conditions up the coast.  Surf was fun.  Overhead, clean and warm.  More of that over the next few days as the current swell drops to chest high by Sunday.  It should also be a great weekend for snow sports.  Best bet is to follow the sun for the softening snow, or gamble with sticking to where the sun don't shine for some thin buff on top of ice.  Either way, moderate temperatures and light winds will make for some good times on the hill.  Looks like great touring weather to boot.

Natural Bridges has some great lagoons to spot birds.  Or spot people spotting birds.

Early next week, we see a large scale trough forming off the coast and dipping as far south as Mexico.   This thing looks to get large, but overall, not very powerful.  Still, looking like this storm will sneak underneath our blocking high.  And what does hit us will move through fairly quickly.  Accuracy of this forecast and timing of the event are still up for debate.  But the models have been trending toward this solution and we are now 3 1/2 days out, so we have decent confidence.  Showers could come from the west as early as Monday evening, but more likely arriving in the early morning hours Tuesday.  Rain persists thorough the day Tuesday.  Plan for the commute to last a bit longer.  Clearing over night.  During the rain event we should see daytime highs along the coast around 55F.  Things warm up to about 60F after the storm passes.  As it looks right now, this would be the only system for next week, but more storms will be forming off the coast.  These are expected to be deflected to the north by the high pressure.

Great weekend.  Go out and get some.  Rainy Tuesday, otherwise fair, mild weather.