Ra in, Wind, Snow and Surf. All rolled into one fine day.

The winds have already started to pick up.  After a nice calm morning that even offered up a few glimpses of sunshine, the next wave in the series is beginning to bare down onto the coast.  And while by last winter's standards this storm does not even merit much more than a mention, this thing is going to pack a bit of a punch.  Tomorrow morning is going to be a challenge pretty much were ever you find yourself.  Rain is already moving onshore in Marin County.  The rest of us around the bay will see it soon enough.  Tonight we should see plenty of moderate, to heavy at times, rain.  Snow for the Sierra.  Freezing levels will start out around 5500 feet and could drop as low as 4000 feet through the day Monday.  Brrr.  A Chilly one.

The calm before the storm.  The last few days before the rain were quite nice in Santa Cruz.

And there will be wind.  Lots of it.  Especially just off the coast, where the core of the strong winds should remain.  We are talking like 40 knots plus kind of wind.  And what this will do is whip up some high seas just a few miles off the coast.  If you want a visual for what "Victory at Sea" conditions look like, just venture out to the coast tomorrow.  Large, raw swell will be accompanied by strong onshore winds Monday.  Could be good for a viewing, but if you are thinking of surfing, you best find a well protected location.  I think we will try to get some shopping done.  Or a visit to the museum.

The wind will not all stay offshore.  So, when combined with moderate rains, what that means is the morning commute will be a bit hellish.  Plan for it.  But the good news is that rain should turn to light showers by the evening commute.  And the wind will subside a bit as well.  The evening could, with a bit of luck, turn out to be quite nice for a stroll.  Tuesday and Wednesday remain up in the air.  It looks like another few waves will make their way through the region.  But neither looks, at the moment, as strong as Monday's.  There is a chance that the Wednesday system will wind up and pull a little moisture on shore.  This one is a cut off, so its exact path is hard to predict.  And that will really determine the weather we get.

Natural Bridges State Park weathering a high tide, decent sized surf and a little drizzle.

Pretty much the same for up in Tahoe.  A few inches to maybe 6 at lake level by the end of day Monday.   Up to a foot above 7k, and a bit more than that is possible along the crest.  Every bit of it is welcome.  Most likely we will see flurries on Tuesday.  Enough for a dusting.  And with an ideal trajectory, Wednesday's wave looks like it could be good for a few more inches.  If we get a fresh foot at the resorts this week, it could set things up nicely for President's weekend.  We will just need to keep an eye on the storms for Saturday and beyond.

As it stands now, things should be partly to mostly sunny by Thursday and Friday.  Another storm could be upon us for Saturday and linger through the weekend.  Something to watch.  In the meantime, you should plan for some outdoor activities during the brief period of sun that we could get.  I told you it would feel a bit more like winter this week.