Friday, March 29, 2013

Pesky Spring Forecasting

Once spring shows up, things get a little challenging when it comes to forecasting the weather.  Low pressures tend to break off from the jet stream, close up and wander around with little guidance.  So, how they actually will effect our particular locale becomes some what of a mystery until we are a day or two out.  Even then, things can also change drastically at the last possible moment.  We did pretty well this past week.  The showers showed up a little early on Wednesday night, and cleared out by mid day Thursday.  We are still on track for a stellar day today even though we had some thick coastal fog this morning.  That is now clearing, and a warm up is in process.  High 60s along the direct coast, with much warmer temps just a mile inland.  Expect low to mid 70s up on campus, and a toasty day in the usual toasty spots.  No wonder real estate is so pricey in LG and Saratoga.  And that awesome school district that actually values its teachers helps as well.  But get on it today or early tomorrow as we have a slow moving storm ready to drop some rain on us starting late Saturday.  And Easter looks absolutely wet.

A hawk rest atop a cypress pole in Lighthouse Field, Santa Cruz.

Temps won't drop too drastically though with this storm.  It is looking pretty warm as of this morning with the cool center of the low moving just off shore, pulling in warm air and moisture from the southwest, and then falling apart as it moves on shore.  Snow levels around 6500 to 7000 feet.  Rain at the lake, but snow at most of the resorts.  For us hear in lovely Santa Cruz, expect clouds to fill in around mid day on Saturday, with a few light showers by late evening.  Easter breaks wet.  Not a deluge, but expect a steady shower in the morning.  With a little luck, this thing will mostly move east by mid day, but one should plan on a grey sky and some light showers through Monday morning.  Good chance things will linger through Monday in the Sierra.  By Tuesday we will return to sunshine for a few days.  The low 70s of today fall into the low/mid 60s by Sunday, but rebound to the upper 60s by Tuesday, with perhaps 70F for Wednesday.  Still looking at another, larger, wetter storm to begin impacting us as early as next Thursday.  Looks like a few wet spring weekends are on tap.

Not much to report for surf.  Small, wind beat surf is expected for the weekend.  Nothing exciting on the charts.  Rains will muddy up the bike tracks.  Sure, some of you love that stuff, but please try to avoid creating giant ruts.  Once that stuff dries they harden into death cookies.  And the snow.  Well, we will need to see what this storm brings.  Nothing too soft out there on Saturday, except for those southerly exposures.  Some of the upper elevations resorts, like Kirwood, have gotten a few inches this week, so you might find a little wintery stuff out there with luck.  Sunday may fair better, but don't expect bottomless blower.  We may be done with that for the winter.  Of course, next weekend looks like it my get deep, but I wouldn't expect blower.  Have fun, get out today and Saturday morning and prepare for a little more rain.  Can't complain too much as this winter was damn dry and we need the rain anyway to beef up that snow pack.  More later.

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