Chance for Winter this next Weekend. This Week Looks Fair.

Fog rolled into the coastal zones this evening after what could only be described as a spectacular weekend. I found my self down on the beaches around Moss Landing, inside Monterey Bay, both mornings of the weekend, and it was just great.  Cool crisp mornings that began to warm as soon as the sunrise.  No fog and no wind made for some great surfing conditions, as well as bird watching and photography.  Unfortunately, the surf kept me occupied, so no current shots of an egret are posted today.  The days got warm, with over 75F posting yesterday afternoon here in town.  Today was slightly cooler, but for the last weekend of October (and for this New England boy who's family is getting hit by a foot of snow right now) it was just perfect.

Closing out the month of October.  A lazy Sunday afternoon on West Cliff.

This start to change this week.  Before I get into the details, I just want to say that Fall is not over.  It does look like we could have a brief visit of winter, but I don't think the change will come as early as it did last year.  Right now I expect great weather for November, except for short intervals of clod and rain.  Like what it looks like for the coming weekend.  First though, this coming week.  It will start off decently, after the fog burns of Monday morning, thing should be clear through Wednesday.  Tuesday will get windy, and the interior again has some fire concern.  North east winds will dry things out, and it will be gusty.  Those of you in the East Bay may want check the yard and get things tied down.  The beaches may see some off shore flow, but the building high pressure through mid week will also drive a strong coastal northwest wind.  It will be a fight for dominance.  Both either way, expect wind.  Things stay clear through Wednesday night, but then we should have a change.

We need more clouds for the sunsets to go off, but you can't really complain about this.

As has been mentioned here before, a strong winter like system looks like it will begin effecting our region around 4th of November.  Now it looks like it might show up on the third.  Or the fifth.  But let us pretend we know more, and look at Thursday.  Things will start to cool down on Thursday, as a cold storm begins to carve out of the Gulf of Alaska and down the coast.  Highs across the region will drop well into  the 60s.  By Friday it will get even colder, and stay that way for the weekend.  Rain and snow may begin to arrive on Thursday, but it looks even more likely through the day on Friday.  Too hard to tell just yet, a s lot will depend on the trajectory of the storm.  Regardless, it will feel like winter.  Over next weekend, the skies will begin to clear, but we will need to wait until the following week before the temperature rebounds.  Did I mention the cold?  Freezing levels and snow could drop below 3000 feet.  And it is barely November.  Just because I do like to mention it - drive safely and carry chains if going to elevation.

Low tides in the Fall often go negative.  Lots off reef exposed this past weekend.

Up at Ocean Beach, in San Francisco, the Rip Curl Search surf contest will begin on Tuesday.  The venue is tucked up near the Cliff House, in Kelly's Cove.  There should be good waves for the event, with our next swell arriving late Monday night or Tuesday morning.  Winds could be an issue, but the Cove is decently protected from the worst winds.  Waves continue through the week, with perhaps another round of NW for late in the week.  But by then, we may be seeing stormy conditions as our 2nd winter storm of the season will be rolling over us.

And don't forget the Pogonip near UC Santa Cruz for great forest views.

So in short.  Get out and enjoy the first half of this week.  Or finish up that yard or garden work.  This is our last week of sunny evening after work.  We Fall Back this next weekend to give those early risers a bit of sun.  By late in the work week, things gets chilly and wet.