No Big Changes. Rain Moves in Today.

Your commute home may be wet, especially if you live in the North Bay.  A cold front will move through our region today, driving north to south.  Cold and rain should arrive mid day in Mendocino and by this evening in Monterey.  This first round is still expected to be mild, but rain should fall across the region.  Things dry out by Tuesday morning.  Well, sort of.  Precipitation will halt, but clouds should linger.  A second, much stronger (and wetter) front will be impacting us late Tuesday into Wednesday morning.  Everyone should plan for a rainy commute on Wednesday morning.  Give your self a little extra tim, and the folks in front of you a little extra room.  And remember, being five minutes late is always better than someone getting hurt.

Aging in the farm fields of Santa Cruz.

And this is no little rain storm.  This is the first significant system of the 11/12 winter.  Winter Storm Watches have been raised by NOAA in the Sierra.  If you are headed that way over the next few days, check them out and stay tuned.  This seems to be the time of year when folks forget to pack the chains.  Don't be that guy.  Lake level should only see slushy stuff, but along the crest a foot or more may fall.  Down here, along the coast, precipitation totals will be impressive.  Over an inch, and up to three for the areas north of SF.  Expect urban flooding.  South of the city we could see up to an inch, and possibly more in the coastal mountains.  Plan for swift moving creeks and ocean outflow.

So, for you surfers.  Some early season sandbars may form along the Monterey Bay beaches.  Also, for the next week or so all that crap, that has accumulated in river and stream beds all summer, will come rushing into the ocean.  You may want to watch for bacteria levels and pay attention to where you surf. Not that the next few days will be all that good.  Sloppy local conditions combine with raw local swell to create a victory at sea type experience.  Things should shift by Thursday as one more New Zealand south swell hits the central coast.  This may be followed by a decent north west.  But this week, at least the first half, it better for focusing on work than surf.  Hopefully you got out this weekend to enjoy some clean conditions and dwindling north west.

Relaxing on the bluff after a fun weekend session.

Thursday morning will see things clear from north to south.  The sun will come out.  The fog is expected to be held at bay.  Things will start to warm up, and we can return to our typical fall weather.  Plan for low 70s by the weekend in Santa Cruz.  And if you are hoping to get up and enjoy the new snow, do it quick.  Later this week, another update and the fall market report.