Red Flag Today, and maybe Rain returns on the Models.

Cypress in the fog along West Cliff. 

Red Flag warnings are up around the Bay, especially in the East Bay Hills.  Remember, these are warm, dry winds we are experiencing today through Thursday, and fire danger is real.  These north east winds really dry out our grassy hills and even the forest, and if fire does start, it spreads really quickly.  I can still remember Marin burning the year I moved out to the west coast.  From SF, it looks spectacular.  From any closer, it just looked devastating.  Be careful out there.


On the other hand, Ocean Beach could be experiencing some off shore winds today and tomorrow.  With the amount of NW mid period swell and short period wind swell, combined with a building long period south swell, things are looking to be fun.  Down here in Santa Cruz, the O'neil Cold Water Classic begins today Steamer Lane.  They are just waiting for the tide to drop a bit before starting the trials.  Come on down and watch the pros have at it.  As long as one keeps winning, they keep getting empty Steamers all to them selves (an three other aggressive surfers).  Should be a decent show, and we may even get a bump in the NW swell for the finals over the weekend.

Short term it looks like the fog is out.  I know I have been saying that, and the fog keeps coming back.  Must be a demon.  But today broke clear, and the rest of the week should be the same.  It is a bit cooler, as cold air has moved in from the north.  We will see a little rebound through the week, but Santa Cruz looks to spend most of its time in the 60s with perhaps low 70s for Friday and the weekend.  Some fog could return for Saturday and Sunday morning.  By the middle of next week, we could be seeing more off shore winds. All in all, a nice end to the month of October and start to November. So get out there and enjoy some great autumn weather, a nice weekend and a dry Halloween.

October has had a nice run of surf.  Steamers Lane, Santa Cruz.

Mid term, the models are still suggesting a pattern change to start around next weekend, or November 5th.  Low pressures that are currently pushing through the North Pacific (and potentially sending us some fun waves) will progressively grow in size and shift further south.  by the end of next week, our high pressure will be fairly suppressed and low pressure will dominate the Gulf of Alaska.  Depending on how this sets up, we could see some decent weather (meaning rain and the such) moving down the coast and affecting our region for five days to a week.  I will keep an eye on this and report back here as we approach.

Cormorants.  Slim, elegant on painted rocks along West Cliff Drive in Santa Cruz.

In the meantime, it is nice out there, so go get some.  Remember, that the time shifts back on November 6th, so those sunny afternoons will be harder to come by for the 9-5ers.  Don't dally this week or next.  Get on the bike, rake the lawn, till the garden, grab some waves.  Because soon you will only be able to enjoy the beautiful sunsets.