This weekend should provide perfect weather for getting your yards, gardens and home in shape for the coming rain. And it is not a time to take the rain lightly. While it will not be the opening of the full on winter storm door, we will be getting several days of significant rain. Not just a measurable amount, but upwards of an inch in the Bay Area, and even more in the foot hills and mountains. The weekend first. Santa Cruz should see fog clear out early today. If yesterday is any indicator, it will warm up quickly once the sun shows. Not hot, but about 70F. Another decent day on tap for Sunday, but clouds will begin to gather along the coast in the evening.
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| Lighthouse Field showing off its fall colors of gold, green and blue. |
We can expect the first wave of rain to arrive in the evening hours on Monday. Perhaps earlier, especially the further north you travel. The first band will keep the heavy stuff mostly north of SF, but rain should extend well down into Monterey Bay. Light rain will fall overnight and mostly subside by the morning commute hours for Tuesday. Roads will be slick and there will be accidents. Remember, this is California where 1) dry summers seems to allow most residents to forget how to drive on wet roads and 2) oil rises to the surface with the first rains making for very slick conditions. Enough with the PSA and back to the weather. Tuesday will remain cloudy with chances for light and sporadic rain. The next round arrives late Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning. This is the heavier stuff, and the round that will most directly effect our zone. Expect heavy rain during the day Wednesday and into the evening hours. It will feel like winter. High temperatures across the region will be in the low 60s. Slow clearing through the day Thursday. By Friday, we see sun and perhaps 70F.
Okay, now for our friends in the Sierra. Timing is just about 18 hours behind us. These systems are moving not too fast, or slow, through the region, so there is a bit of lag time. The heaviest precipitation will be falling Wednesday night along the Sierra Crest. This also coincides with the coldest weather and the timing of the passing of the second cold front through the area. In short, Monday night may see a dusting of snow on the peaks above 9000 feet. Wednesday night may see up to a foot of snow at 7000 feet and a dusting down below 6000 feet. That means several things. Winter driving condition on all of the trans Sierra passes. Use caution, carry chains, water, food and extra clothes. Be prepared. It also means that that the 11/12 ski season begins this Thursday. For all of the turns all year crowd, new snow means a new season. You can expect to see a decent amount of folks touring around the Tahoe passes later this coming week. As for you lift served junkies, there are still several more months to go, as this new snow, except on the highest north facing aspects, will mostly melt away in a weeks time.
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| West Cliff warmed up quickly Thursday when the fog pulled off the ocean. |
After these next weeks storm, it looks like the storm door is to close again. We should see a return to fall like weather, which in short means cool, crisp, clear mornings and warm afternoons. A cold air mass will be in place so most areas will feel a significant drop in daily highs from earlier this week. Coastal areas will see just a slight drop and perhaps even a rebound. This is the time of year where the central valley and Santa Cruz begin to see similar day time highs, as they no longer have heat pooling and we no longer have fog cooling.
Just a note here for you dry farm tomato growers. This will be enough rain to mess with your crop. Remember, they have not had a drink since you put them in the ground. Even if you water until they fruit, it has been a while. You will need to do one of two things. First, you can protect them from the rain. A simple plastic sheeting green house supported by 1"x1" stakes is efficient and easy enough to build in an hour. That is really your best choice, as we have several weeks to months left in the grow season. The second option it to pick all of your fruit with any color. You can continue to ripen them in a sunny window. And then hope the rest of the fruit does not burst when your roots start drinking. Or, I guess a third option is to pick your green fruit and make a chutney. Oh - and another note - expect a brief spike in strawberry and lettuce prices. And a drop in availability.
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| North Coast farmstead. These folks will be busy the next few days. |
I will try to fine tune this by Monday, as timing and trajectory keep flipping in the models. But confidence is high for rain next week between Monday and Thursday morning. Be prepared. And if you are running around the yard this weekend, trying to get things ready, it is because you have not been reading this blog. Here it was suggested that a rain even could occur sometime around Oct 1-6 almost three weeks ago. Hear it here first folks.
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