52/31 through the weekend. Yup, that cold.

You could say today is beautiful out.  Crisp, with a few puffy clouds around the perimeter.  Over all, visibility id good, and though a slight chance of a passing shower does linger, it, more likely than not, will be dry through the reminder of the day an into the start of the weekend.  The (very) cold front that passed through with the storm system last night has ushered in a nip.  Today, only the most wind protected and sunniest parts of Santa Cruz will break into the 50s.  In fact, with the breeze that developed, things seems to have dropped in temperature since around 10AM.  Yeah, this is the coldest airmass yet this winter.  Our neighbor has a throw rug over her rose buds.  Smart lady.  Often, with these systems, the cold last a day and a half or so, before the warm pump turns on.  Not the case this time.  While the strong winds of today will ease up, it will be Monday or more before we see anything in the mid 50s.  And the nights will be dropping just below the freezing mark over the next few nights.  Even at the coast.

California Chute in Emigrant Basin, near Kirkwood, California.

The thing that is keeping the cold in place is the cyclonic system just off the coast.  If this thing were to shift just a bit east, it would give us a cold shower.  Looks like that is most likely to happen next, as the system begin to get picked up and moved out on Sunday.  Might be a cold, drizzly morning.  So, if you are planning a morning jaunt this weekend, aim for Saturday.  But keep an eye out regardless.  While moisture starved, this thing could give us a light burst any moment.  And with such cold temps, we could be seeing snow in spots.  I'd look at the hill tops Sunday morning if anything comes of the rain in town.  After the weekend, we start to see the high pressure build on us in earnest, and a slight warm up begins.  Mid term, MLK weekend is looking likely to be mild.  As in warm and not stormy.  But that is way too far out to tell at this point.  But as it looks now, we are in the January Thaw.  Perhaps we could get the big wave machine thingy turned on.

Actually, the long term models do not look good for that.  They are not horrible, but the storms coming across the dateline look well wound up, but small.  Perhaps some smaller, long period swell will develop.  But it does not look like monster swell.  And while the skiing is in great shape right now, things will deteriorate with no new snow and cold temperatures.  For a while, that cold will help, and in the back country, it will keep things in great shape.  As for the resorts, I'd go this weekend and not wait for the holiday.  There will be less crowded slopes, and they will still be soft.  Another week out, it will start to get pretty firm.  If you want to see what it like was near Kirkwood over the past week, check that out here.  I'm thinking the surf could be pretty fun here this weekend as well, with lighter winds expected and small swell.  Bike trails are starting to dry up nicely.  And if you want to garden, you can start get soil prepared.  You will want to wait a bit before planting.  It is chilly out there.