A better weekend, but more chilly, and maybe rain, to come.

Today will be the best day of the week, bookended by days of freezing fog last week, and winter chill next.  So bottom line, get out and enjoy the weather today.  The sun came up to a clear sky in Santa Cruz with just a touch of marine layer hanging on the water.  It should warm up into the low 70s today.  Just like we like it here on the Central Coast in October.  But that won't last.  At least the fog is on retreat, and should not fill back in like we saw last week.  Sunday looks like another clear one, but with cool air starting to push down the coast, we will see a high only in the mid 60s.  And that is when things start to get interesting.

This guy was hanging out on the beach with us the other day.  Near Santa Cruz.

NOAA is calling for a slight chance of showers here on Monday, with a greater chance for snow showers in Tahoe.  The GFS has the system well to our east, and the Euro has it hitting squarely in the Sierra.  I'm calling for a colder and cloudy day, but no rain.  I just don't think this thing will hit us.  Just to our west, a small cut off low will drift south and dissipate.   Folks in San Diego County could see a few showers Tuesday as this thing gets drawn inland by the short wave that misses us to the east.  But I think we will stay dry.  If it does rain on Monday, it will be very light and sporadic showers.  Nothing like the rain storms we saw last October, or even that weekend this past September.  But it is a sign of things to come as the pattern gets more progressive.  Regardless, it will be a cold one as the high of the day struggles to get out of the 50s.  And with cloud cover, it will be chilly.

The week slowly improves from there, moving back into the low 60s by Tuesday, and slowly warming up each day until by next Saturday we could be starting November back up in the 70s.  Clouds will likely stick around for Tuesday, but days will be mostly clear after that.  Good news is that Halloween is looking like a dry one this year.  Long term the models keep suggesting that a major rain system will hit the west coast sometime around the second week of November.  This could all be to our north, or pure fantasy, but something to monitor.  We could also be seeing another large swell event the beginning of next month.  Check back here.  And don't forget turn back your clocks on November 2nd.