A little warming to start the week.

Hey folks.  Just got back from a long weekend of wine and conversation up in Napa.  It was a bit crisper up there than I had expected.  It certainly feel like fall around these parts.  But that sun is still a toasty one.  Marine layer was showing in the mornings for sure.  It does look like we should be moving into a dryer situation, and we may be lucky enough to hold that marine layer at bay by mid week.  Best bet is for some fog in the morning on Monday, but with mid day temps rising up into the low to mid 70s.  As some one pointed out to me over fine glass of red, that really is just for the twenty minutes between 3:20 and 3:40 in the afternoon.  Yes, it is that time of year for sure, but with some luck we will see a few more days of true warmth before we settle into winter.  Let's take a look at what the next week has in store for us in beautiful Santa Cruz.

No rain in sight.  Well, none in the reasonable forecast range.  Fog will likely be sitting on the coast to start off the week, but by Tuesday things are looking up.  Sunny start to the day.  Of course, that allows for more radiational cooling overnight, so we are looking at a crisp 45F at day break.  With sun though, and very minimal breezes, we should be pushing up past 75F for a mid day high.  It might even get a touch warmer than that, and if you can find a sunny spot, near some rocks and out of the wind, it will feel quite nice.  Of course, you could always go hang out in the Costco parking lot and bake, but the views are just not that lovely.  The shade will remain crisp through most of the day.  Wednesday looks even nicer with a real chance to push up to 80F in the best locations in town.  After that we may see a decline in high temps.  NOAA is calling for a significant drop in temperatures,  but the GFS models suggest otherwise.  Anyway, we could see the high down in the low 70s.  And even cooler by the weekend.  I'm just not seeing where that cooler airmass is coming from, so I'm going to put my money on staying in the mid 70s.  Regardless, we should continue to see sunshine and light winds.

The mid term models are suggesting another chance of rain for late next week, or around the 24th.  This would be the result of a weak, cut off system drifting over us.  Couple that with the fact that it is 10 days out, confidence is very low.  Just putting it out there for now.  I'll report back here if anything develops from this.  Otherwise, the month looks dry.  We are also in a dry spell for surf right now, with nothing significant on the horizon.  Of course this is the case we the light winds are creating excellent conditions for surfing all over the coast.  With luck, you might be able to find a little small surf to at least get out and have some fun on.  Models are suggesting that we might see some more storms developing in the far north Pacific by later this week, and maybe some decent swell for next week.  But don't hold your breath as these storms are still four or five days from even developing.  More on that later.  For now, slight warming weather and lots of sunshine for the coming week.  With those cool mornings it seems that time is ripe for picking out a pumpkin.