Well On Our Way.

Van Ness and King has seen 2.09 inches of rain since the start of this round of storms.  We should have no problem reaching the lower end of the forecast range of 2.5 inches in town by Sunday morning.  Sunlit Lane in Bonny Noon is at 4.27 inches so far.  They will surpass the high end of the forecast for town, but remember, I said more in the mountains.  The gauge at Henry cowell in Felton is registering 4.68 inches.  It is wet in those mountains.  Carmel Valley has a total of only 1.79 inches.   I think this location is tucked into the valley a bit and gets a little shadow protection from the rain.  Compare that to the 2.89 inches just south in Big Sur.  And while the main water plume was pushing ashore just south of Big Sur, we got more rain.  In part we received rain earlier and for a longer period of time.

Base of Vernal Falls.  Rivers are starting flow.

Wind out there this morning.  I can see a lot of clear sky.  Not yet blue because it is too early in the morning with the light just coming.  Should be a breezy day with some showers, especially in the morning.  Winds clock from the southwest in the morning, to the west-northwest in the afternoon at 20-30 mph with a few stronger gusts, especially early in the day.  Surf is big out there.  Still over ten feet in height with periods between 14 and 17 seconds.  That is the swell.  Copious wind waves on top of that.  I imagine it is Victory at Sea for most locations today.  Be careful if you decide to enter out.

We are seeing a break right now, but we have another band of strong showers ad thunderstorms headed this way.  We are not yet in the clear today. We could still see over a half inch of rain here in town today, depending how this next band sets up.  It looks pretty wet on the radar.  You can see it spinning off shore and rain heavily in Marin right now.  Give it an hour or two and it will be here.

No major changes in the forecast.  This have been sailing smoothly.  Friday still looks like it will have some sunshine, but many in the morning.  Final storm in this series arrives Friday afternoon and evening.  Strong NW winds this time and maybe a half inch by Saturday afternoon.

Sunday through Tuesday look cool (upper 50s for a high, low 40s for a low) and mostly sunny.  Another storm may be moving down our coast Tuesday and through the middle of the week.  GFS is suggesting high pressure builds in to keep us dry next weekend, ahead of a strengthening storms that will move ashore the following Monday, December 10th.

Point Eight Four at Six Thirty.

The gauge at Van Ness and King received .84 inches of rain as of 6:30AM.  That is an impressive first round.  I'm thinking we are off to a good start to hit that total of 2.5-4 inches of rain by Sunday.  A very good start.  In fact, if things continue to perform as such, we might be pushing toward 5 inches.  But let us now get too far ahead of our selves.

Returning to write at noon.  Its a lunch break and the sun actually broke out for ten minutes.  On the westside we are just shy of a half inch since midnight.  The strongest showers are south of us, just as forecasted on Monday.  Big Sur is getting hammered, and Monterey is getting some as well. The winds are moderate out of the south off shore, but kind of light here in town.  More rain should fill in this afternoon or evening.

The heaviest rain looks to fall over night Thursday.

No major changes since yesterday.  Enjoy the rain.  Make outdoor plans for Friday and Sunday.

Working on the First Quarter.

Bonny Doon sure gets a heck of a lot of rain.  They already have over 4/10th of an inch and it just started raining in town a little after 6PM.  It was light and misty at first, but we had a decent 45 minutes of real rain fall around 7PM.  It backed off a bit, but now is turning back on outside of my house.  Should be a decent night of rain, with the heaviest rainfall over the next few hours.  Probably will end up around a third of an inch in town.  A low in the 50s.  Quite warm really.

Rain is coming, which means more flowers next year.  Below Lake May, Yosemite High Country.  June 2018.

Steady showers build back in tomorrow morning.  It looks more like steady showers as opposed to shifty gusty intermediate thunderstorms.  At least through the day and evening hours.  A half inch or more in town through the daylight hours, with more if that falling in the afternoon.  A high of about 60F.  Breezy out of the southwest.  Steady showers continue into the night time hours, with some stronger cells moving through around midnight.  We could see some strong gusts late night.  35mph or more.  A low in the 50s again.  Another half inch or more of rain.  Let's say, for now, sunrise Wednesday to Thursday we are looking at 1.25" of rain.  Not bad for a solid start, because that is not the end of it.

The strongest winds look like they will occur Thursday morning with gusts up to 40mph from the southwest.  Rainfall lightens up a bit from Wednesday night, but remains a fairly steady shower.  Thunderstorms could roll through and bring short bursts of very heavy rain.  Basically a storm day.  There are some indicators that suggest a very wet day Thursday.  Others suggest not so much.  Right now it could be as little as a half inch, or upwards of a full inch. High around 60F.  The storms clears out in the afternoon.  Raina and winds lighten. Some clouds clear overnight.  Light showers and maybe an additional tenth of an inch.  Cooler, with some stars.  Around 45F.  Winds remain brisk, and shift from the northwest.

Friday could be kind of sunny.  Lots of clouds to make for great sunrise and sunset.  It will be cool, with a high of just 60F, despite the sunshine.  That last system brings in cooler air.  But the real cold comes on Friday night, as clouds fill back in and rain returns.  Low around 45F.  Showers on Saturday, and cool, only in the upper 50s.  The weekend system does not look as wet, but all together we expect between two and a half and four inches of rain in Santa Cruz.  As of 9PM Tuesday, we have almost a quarter inch on Western Drive.  Only 3.75" more to go to hit the high mark, and 10% of the way to the low end.  Let's see how this all rides.

Cold air will be in place Sunday and early next week.  The weekend storm has forecasted freezing levels around 3500'.  We could see some snow in the Santa Lucia.  Low on Sunday and Monday nights could be below 40F.  Highs in the upper 50s.  About 60F on Tuesday.

And another system might slide down the coast next Wednesday, bringing much needed rain to SoCal. The best news is this week's storms is bringing a close to one of the worst fire seasons in history.  Good riddance.

More Rain.

It could be a wet December.  Still, et us finish up November first.  Month to date in Santa Cruz at De Laveaga is 2.32 inches.  That is about a half inch behind last season and a full inch behind 2015.  It looks like we might surpass both of those years.  What a come back for November which was completely dry up until last Wednesday.  We have two storms coming at us this work week.  Today, Monday will be mostly sunny.  It was cold out there this morning.  41F at King and Van Ness.  60F as of 9:40AM.  I expect a high of about 70F in the warmer locations of town.  Light winds.

Tuesday begins mostly sunny, but clouds fill in through the day.  It will be a bit cooler, maybe 65F.  Winds will shift to southerly mid day, and we could see light rain before sunset.  Rain continues overnight. with perhaps a half inch here in town.  Rain cuts off in the very early morning hours Wednesday.  Cloud cover keeps us warm, around 50F.  Looks like we could have a break during the morning commute.  Then a second storm is hot on the tails of the first.

The 12h GFS suggest rain starting and ending a little later.  More like from midnight through noon Wednesday.  It is also looking a little further north, so maybe lighter amounts of rain.  It comes in south of us.  Big Sur could get some heavy rain late Wednesday.  Overnight we see heavier rain in Santa Cruz, lasting into the day Thursday.  Over one inch of rain in town.  Maybe even two.  More in the mountains.  We will see rain and clouds break overnight, cooling to the mid 40s.  Colder air is in place Friday.  Clouds should stick around through much of the day, as we see another system arrive late Friday night.  Not so sure about storm #3, as only the GFS is showing it, but it will be a cold one if it comes through.  A little less wet.  Perhaps 3/4 of an inchSaturday and 1/4 inch on Sunday.

We are looking at a total of over 4 inches of rain locally over the next seven days.  Hope you are prepared for plenty of rain and some run off.  We could see some minor flooding Thursday into Friday morning.

It looks like high pressure returns the following week.  Long term, we could be back into storm systems for the weekend of the 8th.

One Inch Plus.

1.04 inches of rain fell at King and Van Ness yesterday, with .04 more inches early this morning.  Up by Westlake they received one and one third inch in the past 24 hours.  Sunlit Lane in Bonny Doon is the winner, with over three inches since yesterday morning.  And it is still raining in the mountains.  Clouds should slowly clear out today, and the sun will return.  Low 60s for a high.

The Wall @ Kirkwood.  We don't have this much snow yet, but it is coming.  March 2018.

In the Sierra, more snow fell at high elevations.  Kirkwood is reporting 30" total from this storm.  But don't rush up, as it has been lightly raining on the snowpack since 4PM yesterday.  It is a wet and dense snow pack out there at 7750'.  It is possible the snow is still in good shape above 9000'.  That fresh snow pack will be touchy, with heavier, wetter snow on top of lighter, dryer snow.  Sierra Avalanche Center is not yet forecasting, but I would guess today would be rated as High, due to wind slabs and wet loose avalanche danger.  Make good choices and it could be super fun out there up high.  Sun could come out this afternoon with a high of 40F at 8000 feet.

Back in Santa Cruz, the forecast holds for clear weather over the weekend.  A little bit warmer on Sunday.  It might even hit 70F on Monday.  Super fine.  Then we see a chance for more rain beginning on Tuesday.  And it will drop back into the low 60s.  As it looks right now, rain will brush by to our north during the day Tuesday, with rain filling in late in the day.  Perhaps after sunset.  Light rain overnight and into Wednesday.  The brunt of the storm arrives Wednesday evening and last through the day Thursday. Rain could be heavy at times.  High temps in the upper 50s to about 60F.  Rain continues into Friday morning, before clearing out mid day.  High pressure builds for the weekend.  Sun and warming are expected.

Looking out into the long range, that high pressure is brief.  It keeps a storm to our north over the weekend, but more rain storms break through the following week.  December could be a wet month folks.  I hope you prepared for winter.  It is coming.  Almost seems like we missed autumn this year, except for a week or two in early November.

Round Two.

Second round of rain recently started up in town.  After this, we will see a break for a few days.  Yesterday was rainy in the county.  The Bonny Doon Airport Lost Empire recorded 2.74 inches of rain yesterday and another quarter by 9PM today.  In town Santa Cruz readings were about a third of an inch.  Showers are moving into the county as I type.  Light at first, but they should pick up before sunrise Friday.  We could see some moderate to heavy rain Friday morning, The heaviest precipitation falls before noon Friday, but we should expect showers to linger past sunset.  High temp in the low 60s.  Cooler air follows this storm, and we drop into the upper 40s over night.  We could see an additional half to one inch of rainier in town, with more in the mountains.  Good news.

Sun arrives for the weekend.  High pressure and warming through Monday, with highs reaching into the upper 60s.  Overnight will get cooler, with a clear sky.  Lower 40s.  Tuesday the high pressure fights off an approaching storm and strong southern jet stream.  Yup, we are looking at more approaching storms.  It is likely we will be in another wet stretch starting some time around the middle of next week and lasting into the weekend.

Up in the Sierra, Kirkwood received a foot of new snow.  I went out for a skin nearby, and found nice deep snow, with many areas around 18" deep.  It was a good base building storm.  Tomorrow will be warmer, and maybe too warm even for Kirkwood's base.  Another foot plus is expected.  Unfortunately, a lot of ski resorts will receive rain with this next system at their bases.  Too early to be looking at next week's storms, but the season is off to a good start.  People were getting anxious with no snow on the ground as of yesterday, but this is how Tahoe delivers.  Often.  It looks like things will be good to go here at Kirkwood for their opening on Saturday.  Mt Rose should also be in really good shape with its high elevation.

Timing.

I've missed the last few morning, but I'll be up for sunrise tomorrow.  Expecting it to be chilly and beautiful. Tuesday is our transition day.  It will begin like today, with more haze.  Ugh.  Thankfully to coming weather should dampen the fire as well as clear out this smoke.  Winds shift out of the southwest during the morning and pick up in speed late.  Clouds fill in through the day.  Rain will arrive in the early morning hours of Wednesday.  It will be heavy at times through mid afternoon, with about a half inching town and 1.5" in the favorable spots in the local mountains.  Some decent winds with this one as well.  Nothing super wet or super windy, but decent amounts.  Like a real honest to goodness rain storm.  The cloud cover will keep it warm Wednesday night, near 50F.  Colder air moves in behind the storm early Thursday morning.  And a little break from the rain.

Thanksgiving morning will be cloudy, and cool, in the upper 40s, and perhaps with a drizzle.  By mid day, another storm is going to be moving in.  Mostly light through the day, and picking up near night fall.  High in the low 60s.  Low in the upper 40s.  Rain through the night, moderate at times.  The Euro has this storm much further south than the GFS, so it could turn out we see heavy rain.  But as of now, looking at the GFS, we are seeing only moderate amounts of rain, likely removing under an inch in the mountains and perhaps a third inching town.  Regardless, it will be wet.

The heaviest rain from the second storm looks to be before sunrise Friday, but rain persist through much of the day, off and on.  Tapering in the evening and ceasing after dark.  The weekend looks sunny and warmer.  Saturday morning will have the most clouds, but high pressure moves in and clears things out quickly.  West winds return with that building pressure.

Looking out at the fantasy charts, more storms for the middle of next week possible.  For now, drive carefully, and leave early.  Roads will be very wet Wednesday, for the first time in many months.  Oil will surface, and make slicks. If driving to elevation, expect snow, and be prepared, above 6800 feet.  Have a great holiday, eat some bird, and check back here for updates.

Rain is Coming.

Feeling confident that we will see rain next week.  How much and when are still in question, but otherwise it is looking sure that precipitation will fall.  And we need it.  This is very good news for the Camp Fire.  They are forecasting over 1.5" in that area.  Ventura will see less; it will get somewhere between a half and one inch of rain.  But let's first focus on Santa Cruz.  The next few days remain fair, with pretty high AQI numbers due to the smoke from Bonny Doon and Camp fires.  There was also a second blaze in the Pogonip yesterday.  The zone is dry folks. Be careful when using flames.  Anyway, mid 60s, haze and smoke.  Lows just about 40F. Westside has been cold in the mornings, with plenty of places reading below 40F.  Van Ness and King hit a low of 36.5F, with Swift and Delaware reporting 38.3F.  It was below freezing for almost five hours in Tie Gulch.  Over on Western, it was about 44F, so location matters.  AQI today was above 150 most of the day.  It was 162 at 3PM.  Unhealthy.  Stay inside if you can.

Weather remains the same, with maybe less haze and smoke moving forward.  Sun will feel warm if it is out.  That smoke cuts off a lot of radiation.  Tuesday we begin to see a change.  It will be the calm before the storms.  Winds will build out of the south late, and clouds will begin to filter in.  Could be an epic sunset Tuesday.  Cloud cover and SW flow keep things a little warmer Tuesday night.  Rain move in over night.  Caveat, this is all still several days away and models keep shifting.  We will see moderate rain on Wednesday, starting at the coast and moving east and south during the day.  It will settle overnight, and clear out briefly for Thursday morning.  A second round of rain fills in during the mid day of Thanksgiving. Could be a wet one folk.  Be prepared for some stormy conditions.  As it sits now it could last into Friday, with another system impacting us Saturday night.  All told, we are looking at 1.5 to two inches in town, with more in the hills.  Not huge by any standard, but a hell of a lot more than we have had in months.

Anyway, that is a quick overview.  And likely to change.  But rain is coming and you should be getting prepared.  Walk your property and look for those things that have been out for months, fading into the background, but should really not get wet.  Bring them inside.  That includes wood handled shovels.  Or cardboard anything.  Seed packets.  Whatever.  And look for things that will collect and allow for standing water. Mosquitos are no fun.  More to come.

Hazy.

While I do enjoy a hazy IPA, I'm not such a fan of the hazy sky.  Seems like the wide spread smoke has turned to patchy smoke to wide spread haze.  That kept things a little cool today, with a morning low below 40F on the west side.  It did warm to almost 75F at one point, but there was a pretty good dip in temperatures through the mid day.  Due to haziness.  Haziness stick around through the day tomorrow.  High around 70F.  Haze kicks out sometime Thursday, and sun returns late in the day.  The good news is haze makes for some killer light.  and awesome sunrise and set.  So, maybe, just maybe, get out a camera and take a few shots.  By the time the sun returns, we see a cold front move through dropping highs back into the mid to upper 60s late in the week.  It could be cool on Saturday with a high in the low 60s.  Anyway, I guess I should not complain too much about haze.  We still have our homes and our town.

Jardin du Luxembourg, Paris.  July 2018.  A great place for a sail and a snack.

Anyway, we could see a slight bit of warming into Monday.  Through the period, the winds remain light, with a bit of a north flow over the weekend.  Steep southerly swell, which is the best we have seen in over a week, will be around tomorrow.  That dies out as we see another round of northwest swell arrive Thursday.  Finally we see some fall swell and clean conditions.  Slight north flow on Friday should not make it much worse as that sell fills in more.  Smaller on Saturday, with maybe more northwest on Sunday or Monday.  And maybe more beyond that.  The North Pacific has finally decided it is autumn.  And that is where the fun begins.

So, me, I want more sun and warmth.  My final round of beans is about ready to flower, and that only happens when it is warm and sunny.  But we really need some rain, and we might see some relief next week.  Now remember, this is all more than a week out, so it is pretty speculative, but also investing.  The GFS, it should be noted, has been all over the place the last 36 hours, but the last several runs have zeroed in on a Thanksgiving storm.  We could see rain move ashore as early as next Wednesday, with the brunt Thursday afternoon.  A second storm hits Saturday and a third the middle of the following week.  Again, speculative.  But confidence is growing.  The current runs suggest a fairly powerful storm on Thanksgiving.  It might be the welcome to autumn storm.  We do need the rain.  And I'll be happy to see some snow in the Sierra, even if it does kill my beans.

Fires.

We have smoke in town.  Lots of it.  Air Quality Index is at 170 this morning and I suspect my son's soccer game will be cancelled.  Only good news about this is that we were on snack duty and now I have two dozen pumpkin chocolate chip muffins to consume.  The smoke, tis time around, is coming from the massive 90,000 acre Camp Fire in Butte County.  This blaze has costumed the town of Paradise, burning it to the ground.  54,000 area residents are evacuated.  It has already claimed 9 lives and it is only 5% contained.  The blaze ws so intense yesterday that fire fighters stopped fighting the fire and focussed all their energy on getting people out to safety.  Intense.  If you've been looking for cause to donate to, there are going to be plenty of pool win need of your charity.

Vernal Falls, Yosemite Valley, July 2018.

In Ventura County there are two large fires.  The Woolsey Fire has burned 35,000 acres and displaced over 200,000 residents, including Malibu.  It jumped the 101 corridor Friday morning and is headed toward the sea.  It is zero percent contained.  The Hill Fire is also in the county, and is 15% contained after having burned 4,500 acres.  Part of the excited zone includes Thousand Oaks, which experienced a mass shooting just this past week at a country western bar.  This is all very devastating, and saddening.  Please consider what you might be able to do for others this week. If you can not directly helps those effected by these tragedies, consider doing something positive for your neighbor.

A little cooler today.  And plenty of smoke in the air. As the day goes on, we should see it dissipate a bit.  And while it will be a little cooler, it might feel just as warm with a smoke blanket.  High in the low 70s.  Smoke likely to clear out overnight.  But really, the blaze and winds will determine that.  Lows in the low 40s.  That trend continues through the end of next work week.  Monday looks the warmest.  Speaking of which, it is Veterans Day.  Be sure to thank those who have served, and also consider the cost of war; to those who have fought, as well as to those who have not.

A mention in the long term.  The GFS has depicted a storm coming from the north around the weekend prior to Thanksgiving (17th/18th) for several days in a row now.  Confidence building on a pattern change around mid month.  There is also a second storm arriving just before or on Thanksgiving according to the same forecast charts.  Timing and intensity are till too far away to predict.  Hell, even actually forecasting precipitation at all is not viable at this time. Still, it is something to monitor and consider.  We will get our first storm sooner or later.  Still worth getting projects wrapped up.  As it sits now, rain is 9 days out, arriving next Sunday.  Once we get that down to 7 days, there will be more confidence.  Don't get caught by surprise.

Dry.

Several local fires this past week.  First we saw the Rincon Fire near Paradise Park at the base of Route 9.  That fire began Saturday night, and smoke was heavy on the lower westside Sunday and Monday mornings, as the air flow was out of the San Lorenzo valley.  I was less noticeable later in the day.  The fire has burned 17 acres and is currently 76% contained.  Then this morning, a fire began across Route 9 in the Pogonip, just downhill from the clubhouse.  That fire was a little over 3.5 acres and completely contained at this time.  It is expected to continue to smolder for a few days, as the roots underground continue to burn.  It is dry out there.  Please be careful and please don't set fires on purpose.  Reports are coming out that the second fire may have been arson.

It is also cold at night.  Tie Gulch had temps less than 40F for over 8 hours last nights.  The gauge at King and Van Ness dropped below 37F in the early morning hours.  Closer to the water, there were a few warm spots, cooling only into the mid 40s.  But is was crisp out there this morning.  Expect that again tomorrow morning, and while we warm up a little later in the week, overnight temps remain quite cool and in the 40s.  This may effect those who still have summer vegetables going (such as tomatoes and beans) as buds may drop, or not even form, in cold overnight temps.

On the other hand, the days are quite nice.  Mid to upper 70s in the better spots today.  78.7F on the upper westside today.  77F on King Street.  72.5F on the wharf (which was down to 46.2 early this morning).  We could see a little warming over the next two days.  Maybe even hit 80F up on the UC campus.  Then we see them drop in to the low to mid 70s for Sunday and beyond.  By Monday, we are looking at a 44F/71F spread for the week ahead.

Winds have been summer like out on the ocean recently.  They were strong at 11AM today.  Those are likely to back off the next few days, shift more north and even northeasterly.  By late in the weekend, we should see pretty light winds.  It looks lie autumn weather Monday and Tuesday.  After that, we could see some warming again, and perhaps another wind gradient forming late in the week. All this wind and little to no surf.  The NPAC wave making machine is still not in full swing.

All in all, things look dry 10 days out.  GFS toys with some chances of rain beyond that, but these models have not been on point recently.  If any thing, they toy with rain, and then pull back.  Slow start to the rainy season. At least the storms begin forming in the Gulf again this weekend.  I'll be watching and waiting.  Still have about 6 hours of work I need to complete before the rain comes. Well, more than that, but 6 puts me in a good spot.  And we could use that rain.  Too dry right now.

Turn That Clock Back.

You get an extra hour this weekend.  Many will tell you to turn that clock back at 2AM on Sunday.  Do what ever you want with your extra hour.  Don't conform.  Turn your clock back anytime, and enjoy (unless you have an appointment that is, then you should stick to the rules).  Always one of my favorite weekend of the year.  Typically wonderful weather.  Even when I lived in Maine, I found it wonderful.  Crisp mornings and fine afternoons with hours of insane light on either end.  We hit 85F on the Westside yesterday.  We were over 80F for over two hours.  Insane.  And the morning we dipped down to about 45F.  Nice and crisp.  This weather is great for a lot of those autumn harvest, as well as what is growing out there right now.  I still have French Pole Beans growing and about to be ready to flower.  If this weather holds. it will be like summer harvest (albeit slower) in November.  And the broccoli is loving it and growing its flower.  Once we lop off its head, it likes to sprout.  Treats for months as long as the soil does not get too soggy.  Yum.

Nevada Falls, above Yosemite Valley.  July 2018.

Light or moderate rain for a day or two at a time will only help.  If you are one of the lucky ones still harvesting tomatoes, a little rain will hurt.  Pick your fruit (even the not yet ripe stuff) before any sure signs of rain in excess of a 1/10".  Those plant have become experts at finding water.  They will burst open anything full on that plant.

As for the weather forecast, well, not much changing in the near term.  Today is going to be awesome.  Warm already.  50F.  About the same as yesterday at 9:15AM.  But you can feel that sun on your back if you are out there.  Wind is already up to 18 mph on the outer Monterey Bay buoy, but things are still pretty calm nearshore, with a 3 mph west breeze at Long Marine Lab.  That will increase around mid day.  The wind really whipped up quickly yesterday around noon.  Expect that today. We will still get warm today due, in part, to the relatively calm morning.  I'd expect mid 70s on West Cliff with a wind chill in the afternoon, and low to mid 80s in the warm spots in town.  Cool again tonight, in the mid to upper 40s.

Tomorrow will see some early nearshore winds.  Not sure how strong or when they will come up.  But they will be significant and not long after sunrise.  That wind regime gets strong in the afternoon and sticks around through at least Monday afternoon.  Expect breezier conditions west and north of town.  Expect high temps to drop 5-10 degrees.  Highs of about 70F to maybe 75F in preferred locations.

Those winds will kick some wind swell, but it will be raw and choppy.  Not much will wrap into town.  Great weekend to go for a ride.  Or a hike.  Or chase tiny surf.  But that is a shame in November.  Maybe just clean up the yard.  The sunny weather will persist through all of next week.  That storm I mentioned last post was walked back over 8 model runs and is now expected to hit near the Alaskan/ Canadian border.  Fine weather continues on the Central Coast.  And now back to looking like the high pressure will migrate west and set up that warm offshore flow I was talking about several posts ago.  Maybe.  Been a strange weather pattern this autumn.  Climate change.

November Too.

First day of November was pretty stellar.  Light winds, and a high of 83F on King Street.  Much of town was in the upper 70s and low 80s today.  It was only in the 80s at King and Van Ness for a little over an hour today, but it was above 70F from 10:45 until 6:15 this evening.  Yeah, as the sun was setting, it was still in the 70s.  In November.  Awesome.  Expect more of the same tomorrow, although that NW wind should kick up more in the afternoon.

Paddling under the Chateau de Chenonceau.

Basically the next two days will be quite warm.  As we move toward Sunday, we begin a cooler trend.  Lows could move back down into the upper 40s, with highs just about 70F.  Sun abounds.  Not really a marine layer, but we could see some clouds overnight Friday through early next week.  We see an almost summertime pattern setting up Sunday through Tuesday next week, with very strong NW winds in the afternoons.  Wind swell will be on the way up.  Which is good news, as there is not really much other surf to speak of.  All that mix of south and North Pacific energy is finally coming to an end.  We could see a bump of NW middle of next week, but nothing to write home about.

The big news right now is that we see rain on the 10 day forecast.  Yup.  Not that I will give much credence to any forecast 10 days out, especially during shoulder season.  But it is in there.  After several days of not much storm activity in the NPAC, a tight strong low pressure is forecast to develop in the eastern Gulf of Alaska next Friday/Saturday.  So, that is already 8/9 days out.  That storm then will move south very quickly and stall offshore of San Francisco.  This would result in light to moderate rains for the region on Sunday and Monday.  The storm finally moves ashore Monday and inland on Tuesday.  This is November 12th we are talking about.  As it stands now, we could see over an inch of rain, so start your planning if you have any open projects.  I'll monitor this in the coming week.  Who knows, the entire thing could miss us.

The GFS is not calling for a pattern change.  More of a one and done kind of system.  High pressure sets up behind the system, and we might see ourselves back into a pattern like the past two weeks.  Warm and gorgeous.  Speaking of gorgeous, I hoe you've been enjoying the sunsets.  They have been wonderful.  As with the sunrise.  Get some.