Thursday, November 29, 2018

Well On Our Way.

Van Ness and King has seen 2.09 inches of rain since the start of this round of storms.  We should have no problem reaching the lower end of the forecast range of 2.5 inches in town by Sunday morning.  Sunlit Lane in Bonny Noon is at 4.27 inches so far.  They will surpass the high end of the forecast for town, but remember, I said more in the mountains.  The gauge at Henry cowell in Felton is registering 4.68 inches.  It is wet in those mountains.  Carmel Valley has a total of only 1.79 inches.   I think this location is tucked into the valley a bit and gets a little shadow protection from the rain.  Compare that to the 2.89 inches just south in Big Sur.  And while the main water plume was pushing ashore just south of Big Sur, we got more rain.  In part we received rain earlier and for a longer period of time.

Base of Vernal Falls.  Rivers are starting flow.


Wind out there this morning.  I can see a lot of clear sky.  Not yet blue because it is too early in the morning with the light just coming.  Should be a breezy day with some showers, especially in the morning.  Winds clock from the southwest in the morning, to the west-northwest in the afternoon at 20-30 mph with a few stronger gusts, especially early in the day.  Surf is big out there.  Still over ten feet in height with periods between 14 and 17 seconds.  That is the swell.  Copious wind waves on top of that.  I imagine it is Victory at Sea for most locations today.  Be careful if you decide to enter out.

We are seeing a break right now, but we have another band of strong showers ad thunderstorms headed this way.  We are not yet in the clear today. We could still see over a half inch of rain here in town today, depending how this next band sets up.  It looks pretty wet on the radar.  You can see it spinning off shore and rain heavily in Marin right now.  Give it an hour or two and it will be here.

No major changes in the forecast.  This have been sailing smoothly.  Friday still looks like it will have some sunshine, but many in the morning.  Final storm in this series arrives Friday afternoon and evening.  Strong NW winds this time and maybe a half inch by Saturday afternoon.

Sunday through Tuesday look cool (upper 50s for a high, low 40s for a low) and mostly sunny.  Another storm may be moving down our coast Tuesday and through the middle of the week.  GFS is suggesting high pressure builds in to keep us dry next weekend, ahead of a strengthening storms that will move ashore the following Monday, December 10th.


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