Could it be Drought Year, Again?

The zoo is all in a chatter about how this could be the third one in a row.  A slow start, after what looked like it might be a promising fall, an experimental model, and age old fear mongering has got every one concerned that this could be another poor year for snow.  While the hopefuls are just claiming it has not turned on yet, but once it does, it will dump.  What ever your perspective, it seems like the start of winter has been off since the big year that started in October of 2003.  That is a decade.  Anyway, models are doing what they seem to have been doing the past two winters.  It always looks like we are going to get slammed by a big wet set up in ten days time.  At least now, we are seeing some precipitation in the mountains and actually have more forecast for Friday night.  Let's focus in this week for now.

Cell phone pic, 'cause these guys are around.  Mostly at NBs, but a swath of them at Lighthouse Field.

Still a very slight chance for showers out there locally, but it is much more concentrated in the Sierra with the very cold temperatures.  Maybe a foot will fall atop Kirkwood, but this snow is very light and will settle down to 2-4 inches, if it does not first get blown away.  It is cool out there today, with a gusty wind.  Kind of feel like Fall that I remember as a kid in New England.  But more like an early November day there.  Tonight will be cold, but high clouds and wind keep us just above freezing.  About 35F tonight and 50F on Wednesday.  And clearing.  Thursday night will get cold, and you will want to consider you plants and pets.  And anyone you know living outside.  Make sure they stay warm.  If you have tender plants, cover them up, especially in low, shaded areas.  I like to make sure the soil is well watered before a cold snap.  Unless you have succulents.  Then you pray.  But I don't think it is going to get that cold in most places to really hurt mature plants.  SLV, and such locales, OTOH, could get a freeze.  Certain north sloping valleys at elevation in the Santa Cruz Mountains could dip below 25F.  Back up to 50F or so across the region.  Tahoe is be in the 20s.  More of the same through Friday morning.  Then we need to watch this next system that is on the charts.

Right now, it looks like we could get a similar storm as today's moving through, only its track will be a bit further south and west, driving the bulk of the system through just to our north and east.  This will give us a much greater chance for rain, but the real heavy stuff seems like it will hit Sacramento and the West Slope.  At least the rain will warm things up a little bit.  The day Friday should warm to 55F, with clouds and late day rain.  Overnight, we should be above freezing here in town, but snow could fall on certain peaks around Monterey Bay.  With a little luck, we could have some snow caps in the morning.  Clouds, though, may obstruct them.  If the day does not melt it, sunset could pull together for a nice view.  Saturday will be crisp, with the cold air filling in behind the storm.  Right now, high pressure fills in, bringing cool air, sunshine, and slow warming.  Rain again Thursday, or 10 days out.

Come back tomorrow.  If there is any shift in the forecast for Friday, I'll post it up.  For now, dry and cold until Friday, when it warms a bit, and rains, then cool and dry starting Sunday.