Tuesday, December 17, 2013

Looking mostly dry. Mostly.

I wanted to wait till this morning to get a better feel for the trend this week.  On Sunday, the GFS shifted to a much wetter, and a touch cooler, solution.  Since then it has been slowly backing off from that toward a drier, if not dry, solution.  Now we are two days out, so lets take a closer look at it.  Pleasant day today.  Not quite as warm as yesterday, but still quite nice.  Speaking of yesterday, if you were watching TV at sunset, you were doing it wrong.  One of those magical evenings out there.  I was lucky enough to be in the water along West Cliff when dark slowly settled in.  Such an absolutely beautiful late autumn evening.  Upper 60s today in the best corners of town, with a thin high haze, and maybe some low fog along the water.  That fog could fill in tonight, as the winds are basically calm out there.  Wednesday will start off quite mild in the low to mid 40s.  But it won't warm up much, as a cold north west breeze develops through the day.  Highs stay in the 50s.

Stealing one of my wife's pics.  Persimmons, UCSC Campus Farm.  

So, there is a pretty solid swell running right now.  At least solid for this anemic season.  And with these calm conditions, the surf is breaking really nicely.  Should be another solid day today.  As the swell backs off, and the wind kicks up, the conditions will deteriorate.  But not to worry.  We will get some big windswell mid week.  As the weather calms late in the week, more small mid period swell arrives.  By next week, it could be big again.  And it looks to stay rideable through next week.  Finally, maybe the season has started up.

So the weather calms.  Thursday could be a stormy day, with some wind and clouds.  We could even see a bit of rain, but it does not look likely at this point.  The Sierra Crest still might squeeze out a few inches of snow. But it is mostly only going to bring that colder air, with lows back in the 30s and the highs back in the 50s.  Luckily, it will not quite last like the last bought of cold, as high pressure quickly builds and pumps back in the warm air.  Not like yesterday warm, but warm.  Low to mid 60s starting Saturday.  And no signs of cooling or storms in the mid term.  Bubble of high could keep us dry through the year.  If you collect your own rain water, you should be conserving right now.  Until winter starts, we really can count on anything.

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