Doood. Silly fun long range.

Still on track this week with the same ole same ole.  Today will get pretty damn warm.  We might get a 90F reading in a parking lot in the sun.  Afternoon sea breeze will combat that chance fairly well.  Expect mid to upper 80s in town, and about 80F on the cliffs.  Damn nice if you ask me.  A touch less warm tomorrow.  A touch less breeze as well.  We move through our cooling trend over the weekend, with afternoon highs dropping into the mid to low 70s.  Again, less of a breeze.  At least on Saturday.  Next week is the typical summer time morning fog and afternoon sun, with temps expected in the low 70s.  Overnight lows drop back down into the upper 50s.  Hope you set a few tomatoes, and continue to do so, while it was warm at night.  Anyway, none of this is very interesting.  What is interesting is the long term fantasy charts.

Siena in the morning.

Basically we in the short term we are still expecting a low to develop in the north eastern Gulf of Alaska.  In fact, a weak, broad one is already there.  But a deeper one if developing north of there, and is expected to hang out through the middle of next week.  In fact, that is what is to suppress our warming temps under this high pressure.  By day ten, we are looking at a more normalized August condition, with a strong high pressure occupying much of the Gulf of Alaska and ridging strong into California.

What might not be so normal are the three tropical systems forecast to be surround Hawaii at that time.  One to the west, one the north and one the east.  As we move through day 16, as in the fantasy forecast, the two eastern most systems begin to drift NNE.  One begins to interact with energy from the north and goes extra tropical.  The other tracks toward California for a few days before getting absorbed into the strengthening system fueled by the first storm.  And then suddenly, it looks like a strong fall pattern.  Could the NPAC get energized in the next two weeks?  Something to watch.

A crank of the engine?

Well, still on track for a warming trend.  Perhaps it will peak Thursday, and not Friday.  Still aiming at low 80s.  Might hit a mid 80s.  Might.  Yesterday's lack of fog was nice.  Felt warmer.  But this stuff will pull out soon.  More on shore breeze today.  Lightening through the later half of the work week.  The reason the warmth will peak and begin to subside is a broad, but very weak low pressure system pushing south in the Gulf.  That will eventually fall apart and rain on shore to our north. Maybe some for NorCal.  What is interesting is that energy is to hop over the bubble of a high and into the extreme north eastern corner of the Gulf of Alaska.  And deepen.  By mid next week, it is forecast to drop to below 976mb.  That's deep yo.  Again this pushes south and begins to weaken before moving ashore to our north.  So, no, our weather will not change much.  More versions of the same.  Overnight lows have moved into the 60s.  Which is good news for tomatoes. If you fertilize, you may want to hit them with some organic flowering agent, and boost that bloom.  Good fruit setting weather, and with autumn around the corner, this could be a good time to set more fruit.  Speaking of tomatoes, seems like a good year for them.  I abused the hell out of mine and they are going off and not sick.  Anyway.  Got to go.  More of the same, but perhaps the autumn storm engine is beginning to crank.  If that happens, the weather will change.

July 4th happens to be a feast day for Bruco.  Siena, Italy.

Continuing trends.

With the lack of marine layer covering the Westside, this morning has a crisp feel to it.  Not quite autumn like in its crispness, but nearly.  A taste.  Warming trend continues with today in the upper 70s.  Low 80s by Friday are a reasonable expectation.  It will be nice in that sun before the wind picks up today.  Moderate on shores are expected through tomorrow, and then they become lighter.  Thursday should have slackest winds and Friday the warmest temperatures.  The weekend looks nice with light to moderate winds and mid 70s.  Perhaps some fog in the morning.  Very much like one would expect in August.

Valdimontone flags tossed before the Duomo.  Siena, Italy.  

Swell makers produced less than anticipated.  Still, a small SW swell is in the water, and a very small W is developing.  They should both be here later this week and into the weekend.  Perhaps the best surf we've seen for a while, but not really that impressive looking of a swell.  Summer continues.  It is not surprising that Atsani is not holding together so well as it recurves to the NW.  It is August after all.  It is surprising that the storm recurved at all.  Just another sign that we are setting up for a solid El Nino.  Fingers crossed for an epic fall and a wet winter.  More later.

Slowly warming, and massive hurricane swell.

It is true.  By the middle of next week the daily highs will be in the mid to upper 70s.  My car read 81F today.  I think I was on Graham Hill in the early afternoon.  Still, it was cool down along West Cliff, especially with the afternoon breeze.  The trend continues. Plenty of grey in the morning.  Onshore flow strengthening by 9AM or so.  Each day a bit warmer than the nice.  And it is real nice out, especially if you are in the sun and out of the breeze.

Torre del Mangia in the late day Sienese sun.

Japan is getting hammered by huge surf today, courtesy of Super Typhoon Atsani.  The storm is curving north and then north east, sparing the nation a direct blow.  The storm will continue to rage, though it will be weakening.  Remnants make it as far as the dateline by the middle of next week, before encountering a firm ridge of high pressure.  Still, swell will radiate out across the North Pacific by the latter half of the week, and we should see some of that arrive for next weekend.  Could actually be a nice early season showing.  A long period south arrives around the same time.  At least a little something to get us past the weak wind swell and dribbling souths we have now.

Nothing too exciting weather wise just yet, but signs of an active northern Pacific are always good.  More to come.

Slack wind.

It seemed obvious by mid afternoon yesterday.  The marine layer never really pulled far from West Cliff, if at all.  It certainly was creeping up the western slope as early as 5PM yesterday evening.  Usually that is the result of an eddy flow.  This morning the flags clearly show a SSW flow on the water.  The bad news is this is what keeps us cool through most of the day.  There is a huge upside though.  It is not like it is hot and uncomfortable like it is inland.  And this flow brings us more warm water.  Sunday the ocean felt chilly again, due to the days of upwelling.  With that put to an end for a bit, and surface water pushing north, it should warm right back up.  And it was not like it was cold, as it typically is.  Anyway, we have a few more days of light winds, with the flow slowly moving through the west and toward the WNW by Friday.  Right now it looks like the gradient remains weak with winds less than 10 knots.

Palazzo  Pubblico, Siena, Italy.  It was hot there on July 4th.

After this week, we could see some developing high pressure.  And a bit of warming.  Likely only into the upper 70s.  And there is some mathematical chatter about a weak low pressure developing in the Gulf of Alaska next week, and then pushing south before moving inland Thursday, centered around Seattle.  Nothing really to effect us here, but an interesting August event if it does come to pass.

101 with a bit of smoke.

I read today that Santa Cruz recorded a record high temp of a 101F for August 10th, on Saturday.  I can tell you it was plenty damn hot at the beach all day.  Sweltering.  Ocean still felt refreshing.  When we came back into town, it looked foggy out toward the east.  My wife returned from a stroll to report it was smoke.  Smoke from the Jerusalem fire.  Towards Napa.  The winds shifted just perfectly yesterday to blow that smoke right into the Bay Area yesterday.  And also kept most of town in a wind shadow allowing for a gorgeous, and hot, day.  Things are moderating.  And normalizing.

Ladder, in the Ladder Canyon, near Mecca California.  Trip Report at WaveStoke.

Today the wind shifted a bit more westerly, which helped cool things off, and push that smoke elsewhere.  It will continue to do more so tomorrow.  High temps for Monday are back down into the 70s.  Give or take, that is how it will be all week.  Marine layer comes back into play on Tuesday.  We could see the pressure gradient pull north and an eddy flow develop through mid week.  If that were to happen, the onshore flow would shift from the southwesterly direction, and the marine layer would stick around longer into the day.  It looks certain that NW flow will develop by late in the work week.

Lining up for perhaps a sunny and warm weekend.

Notice the word perhaps.  This week continues with some typical feeling summer weather.  Feeling.  A weak low is actually developing just off shore and to our north.  Before that thing gets fully realized, summer kicks it out to the north east, toward Canada.  They might get some rain late in the week.  This is not a sign of things to come.  Not really.  Solid high pressure moves in Friday.  Good chance for a desert pump to set up late Friday and move some warmth and dryness to the area.  So, variations of foggy and cool mornings all week, with clearing and various strength of on shore breeze in the afternoon.  That whole upper 50s, mid 70s thing.  Saturday could be different.  A little different.  Dryness could keep that grey at bay, and warmth could develop here in Santa Cruz.  Maybe a 80F day.  But yeah, not really much going on right now.  Stay tuned.

California grasslands, looking dry in June.  Near Plaskett Creek

Back at home.

It is always wonderful to return home to Santa Cruz.  Don't get me wrong, I miss walking out into the Campo as well as building sand castles to be taken by the tide near the Wells jetty.  Still, home is pretty stunning.  We arrived in town just a few days before the lightening storm last week.  That was special.  Real special.  And the rain even felt nice.  We did not get much on our travels.  And at least for the east coast leg, we expect a few good thunderstorms a few days.  We ended up with mostly beach weather.  Can't complain much.  As for the weather at home, it is oddly typical summer ish.  I mean, not much is normal, with tropical waves and humidity and such, but things have shifted into a more regular coastal high developing and onshore flow with foggy mornings and breezy afternoons.  Not strong wind, but a solid moderate blow.  Summer like.

Facciatone e Luna, Siena, Italy.

Upper 50s to mid 70s is the daily range.  Not much changing this week.  Light to moderate on shore flow, strongest in the afternoons.  North Pacific is not doing much.  South Pacific is not doing much. There are warm pools of water and things are looking more and more like an El Nino pattern into the autumn. Look for a seasonal change with tropical systems starting to recurve toward the Gulf of Alaska.  If that starts to happen, we will get swell, weather and soon enough, rain.  We will need to watch the oceans and see what develops.  It is good to be back.