Afternoon Deluge.

Pretty much on track so far.  No measurable rain just yet.  We did have a few moments of mistiness yesterday morning, and dark clouds, that made me think things moved in early.  Then, nothing.  Well, except some light rain last night in the Santa Cruz Mountains.  If you look on the radar you can see there is a ton of rain just to our north.  It will be just a few hours now before rain begins to fall locally.  Light at first, then heavy.  We should see about an inch and a half of rain fall from this mid afternoon through 3AM, then some lighter rain into the morning hours.  But not too light.  We could see up to another half inch by noon Wednesday, but I'm betting on juts a quarter.  After that, the rain subsides a bit, before another wave, weaker than the first, pushes through in the evening.  Temperatures remain fairly steady through the period.  Currently it is 53F, and we will likely stay in the 50s today, tonight and maybe Wednesday (we could hit 60F, whoop whoop).

Snow in the Santa Lucia.  This will all wash away tonight, with freezing levels between 5000 and 6000 feet.

Tahoe is already getting hit.  That cold smoke of the last three weeks is now under several inches to a foot of cement.  They are expecting 3-6 feet more snow this week.  Snow will back off on Thursday, and they will be digging out again, trying to prep for the weekend, and more snow.  Insane winter up there.  The resorts are all sitting at 400-500 inches of snow so far this season, with really no end in sight.  It is going to be such a great spring.  Too bad Vail thinks ski season should stop in early April, as Squaw will be running lifts into June this year and are aiming for July 4th.  So is Mammoth. Instead of chasing the snow through these storms, consider spending your money in April and May, when we are more likely to have fine weather and great tail gating in helot at the end of the day.

That second wave coming through Wednesday evening is nothing like the first.  More like sustained showers than a deluge.  We are looking at an additional few tenths of an inch by Thursday morning.  Then some clearing in the day time, with sunshine in the afternoon.  Look for a killer sunset. Winds shifts from the strong south westerlies we see all week, to a moderate north wind.  Might even get a chance for the surf to clean up a bit.  Friday looks fair, with clouds filling back in through the day. Daytime temps remain in the upper 50s, but with some cooler air and a clearer sky, night time lows drop back down to the low 40s.  Next system up stream arrives late Friday night.

This storm can be seen on the satellite spinning offshore.  It has a good amount of moisture with it, but its main plug is expected to be just to our north. Again.  Not far enough north to hit the drought areas hard, but far just a hair north to spare us.  As it sits now.  Looks like the rain will begin in the early morning hours Saturday and rain pretty heavy through the afternoon, before shifting east.  This one looks swift, so we may not see big accumulations from it.  About a half inch by Sunday mid day.

We could see another storm as early as next Tuesday night and lasting through the middle of next week.  And another next weekend, and another the following week.  Word on the street is we are now officially in weak El Nino, so there is that.