Cranking Up.

Forecast models come to agreement that we are going to get walloped.  GFS is calling for five to seven inches of rain over the next week.  That is a lot, and everyone should prepare for some more flooding, downed trees and power lines, along with issues on the commute.  Wednesday morning looks like the roughest drive of the week, but things will be rough Tuesday through Thursday.  Here is the nitty gritty as I see it now.  Monday will be cloudy and cool in the morning, with some light rain likely by afternoon.  We are only looking at about a tenth of an inch by night fall, so not too much.  The temperature is likely to stay steady in the mid 50s in the evening, as rain becomes more likely. Southerly winds increase through the day, with gusts to about 30mph by dark, and to 45mph overnight.  There is an AR stream just to our north during this period, so it is hard to tell when it will begin to hit us directly.  Until it does, we will remain warmish, and less wet.  It looks like it will begin to take aim at us Tuesday.

Mike used up some frequent flyer miles to get this hang time.  Dog Leg, Kirkwood.

Temps remain in the 50s, rising to near 60F mid day.  Rainfall rates increase through the day. Possibly as light as showers at sunrise, but likely a moderate to heavy rainfall by afternoon.  Winds lighten during the day, but pick up overnight again.  Strong and southerly through the period.  We likely will see an inch from Monday sunset through Tuesday sunset.  An additional 1.5 inches by Wednesday sunset.  The heaviest rains are expected overnight on Tuesday.  Wednesday morning will be in the low 50s, as the rain subsided through the morning.  With luck, the Farmer's Market will not be too wet.  Temps rise into the low 60s.  Showers continue into the evening.

Thursday might give us some sun and some warmth.  Showers could persist though.  All in all, we are looking at two to four inches of rain in town during this period, with perhaps more than that in the local mountains.  We are moving into the record breaking territory for the month of February.  The CA Drought Monitor now has 67% of the state completely out of drought, with 29% Abnormally Dry.  These are areas in the north, and San Diego to Arizona, south of the Salton Sea, along with a credence around the southern rim of the Sierra.  That leaves 2.4% and 1.4%, along the northern border, in Moderate and Severe Drought.  We are moving in the right direction.

More wet weather for the weekend, and possibly next week.  It seems we are in the opposite pattern as the drought.  It keeps on looking like we will have a dry period ten days out, but as we get closer, things get wetter.