Wet Start to February.

Pretty spot on with the rain starting at 4PM, with a chance of showers earlier.  We saw some light rain from 1:20 this afternoon until just before 2PM, but then a break until just about 4PM.  Only a few hundredths of an inch so far.  Winds are gusty from the south.  25mph on the Monterey Buoy and 34mph on the outer buoy.  That is strong.  13mph at the yacht harbor.  Rain is light right now, but the storm is just offshore and will pour onshore in the next few hours.  In fact, rain is falling on the Humboldt, Marin, San Mateo and Santa Barbara coastlines.  It looks like we will see some light rain and showers, develop into moderate to heavy rain around midnight.  The heaviest rain falls between just before sunrise into the early afternoon on Saturday.  By sunset Saturday it looks like we will see about an inch and a half of rain.  We should be expecting some minor creek and urban flooding tomorrow.

The ground is still very wet from the past week's rain.  The coastal bluffs are bogged out after all that water has finally run off the hills.  Adding more to the drainages is going to have a big impact.  There is not a lot of room in the soil for more water.  King street, around Van Ness and Laurel will likely have some deep water spots by afternoon.  The trails will have water running in them in the Pogonip. Luckily the next few waves of storms do not look quite as severe.  By evening this first storm will be mainly east of us, effect Sierra.  Big Sur could continue to see heavy rains.  About an additional half inch over night by Sunday morning.

Rain and south winds continue into Sunday.  The storm will be backing off Sunday morning, but ramping back up Sunday night.  We will likely see a decent break in the storm during the daytime hours, as it looks now.  Still, we could see a quarter inch or more of rain during the daylight hours.  From Sunday night through Monday afternoon, more rain.  Wind looks like it will be setting uo north westerly, but the storm won't be behind us.  Perhaps another inch plus of rain during this period.  The rain backs off again in the evening Monday, but showers sick around into Tuesday.  Wednesday even.  Another quarter inch or more.  Kind of feeling tough to count. GFS says four plus inches intern and five to seven in the Santa Cruz Mountains.  That is a lot.

With winds blowing tonight into Monday, and saturated grounds, it might be a good idea to check on the batteries in the flash lights.  And cozy down snacks are stocked in the pantry.  Could be a wet and wild weekend for sure, and you want to save up your energy for what is sure to be a crazy Monday morning commute.

Speaking of flooding, we are going to get another moderate long period swell filling tonight, along with strong southerly winds, heavy rain fall , and a very high tide for Saturday morning, expect to see some coastal flooding tomorrow morning.

If you are planning on driving up to Tahoe this weekend, be prepared for long car rides. Carry chains,  extra food, water and warm clothing to blankets.  You may find yourself stuck on Sunday. If you plan to get home to the Bay Area on Sunday, watch the storm and roads closely.  They will start hutting at some point and it will take a while for them to reopen.  I fully expect 80 to shut down due to accidents on Sunday, and we could see the Spur on 88 close down before then, shuttling everyone in Tahoe over 50.  It will be a cluster for sure.