Swift and Solid.

Rain begins later today.  GFS is still suggesting holding off until sunset until any serious rain.  The radar has a lot of rain well north; as in out of state.  Still, there is a band just pff shore south of SF, so we could begin seeing rain earlier.  The heaviest of rain will be from late afternoon to late evening, with rain becoming lighter by midnight.  We cold see up to a half inch of rain by Monday morning. We could even see totals approaching an inch, especially in the mountains.  Tahoe is still looking at a possible foot of dense snow above 8K.   Be prepared for the commute after several days to a week off.  Rain and returning workers will clog up that road.  On Monday, showers will likely happen during the morning daytime hours, with sun likely by afternoon.  It will be cool, in the low 60s.

The rest of the week will be epic autumn weather.  Overnight will be chilly, in the mid 40s.  Clear.  Sunny days, with warming through the week into the mid and upper 60s.  We will need to look at the mid term over the next few days.  Models keep changing.  Some have a cut off low hitting LA; some have us dry under a big fat high pressure; some have cold air pushing south.  So a bunch of different outcomes are possible, from warmth and sun, to cold and rain.  Time will tell.

Sunday Evening Punch.

Oh my goodness.  I spent today with the family at the car lot.  It needed to get done, but man, what a day to miss being out doors.  Absolutely stunning.  What a great week this has been.  It was 75F when I got home just before 4PM today.  Ah.  Love it here.  Anyway, all good things must come to pass.  The storm last week put down enough snow for a few resorts to open up for skiing this past week.  Snow was described as excellent spring sugar, or corn.  Dense base of a few feet.  Well, more is to come for above 7000 feet.  And that means rain for us.  Tomorrow, Saturday looks a bit like today, but cooler. Still hitting the low 70s though.  It will be a nice one.  Get outside.  With, perhaps, more clouds by evening.  But those do help the sunset.

NWS is calling for a chance of rain overnight, but GFS suggest it holds off until after noon on Sunday.  Regardless, rain should fill in during the day Sunday.  Right now it looks like we will get hit, and hit hard, late afternoon and evening.  Exact timing, as always, is hard to nail down.  With this rain comes a cold front.  It will only warm into the mid 60s on Sunday.  If that.  Windy too.  Rain is expected heaviest Sunday evening through the early morning hours of Monday.  Light rain may persist through the day Monday.  All told maybe 3/4" of rain here in town.  Monday will be in the low 60s.  And the cool air persists after that with temps rebounding only to maybe to the mid 60s.  With a little luck, Thursday could be warmer.  But more weather is on the horizon.

For now, expect less than a foot of snow on the ski resorts.  Some higher resorts on near the crest could get a foot.  Not a big storm, but more snow, and water for California.  It is nice to see a normal seasonal shift, even if this year I'd prefer it to stay dry for a few more weeks.

High, Dry and Getting Warm.

Hey folks.  Looks like the storm scheduled for today will miss us.  I mean, we could actually get a shower, but it is not likely.  There is another AR shaping up to our north, but maybe SF and Tahoe might get some rain.  Unfortunately it looks like it is currently raining on some of the ski resorts, shifting the snow surface from decent to wet.  Does not seem like enough to wash out any of the limited base, in part thanks to it having been a dense heavy snow fall to begin with.  For us here in Santa Cruz we are in for one hell of a nice week, with sun and temps warming into the 70s.

Today, Monday, will remain in the 60s, but could get real close.  We have a lot of warming to do still, with a 10AM reading of 58F.  Likely, how warm it actually feels will depend on how much the sun shines.  With that AR event pummeling the PNW, we still see plenty of breeze and cloud cover.  It has been real pretty this morning.  Sunrise was a speckled pink.  The sun is in and out.  Clouds are varied, but visibility to Monterey.  Surf is looking small, but should pick up a bit out of the west mid week.  Still, not big long period swell on schedule for the holiday.  There seems to have been a mix up.  Oh well, at least some one ordered the fine weather.

Almost 70F today.  Almost clear tonight, but warm.  Lows will be in the low to mid 50s.  Tuesday looks splendid.  Mid 70s and plenty of sunshine.  Perhaps just a few clouds to keep the sunrise and sunset rocking.  Man, does it look pretty out.  Wednesday and Thursday should stick around in the low 70s, but a little cooler than tomorrow.  And by week's end, day time highs will drop into the upper 60s.  Mid 60s by Sunday.  Overnight lows stick in the low 50s, continuing this warm trend.  If you have any autumn veggies still going (beans, peas, lettuce, etc) the next few days could be a good period of growth.  I'm hoping for a late bean harvest in two weeks.  That would be sweet.

It is not like there won't be plenty of rain just to our north.  First this AR thing, then another, then a gale, then a storm, but all just to our north until next Monday evening, November 27th.  So that is what we will be mainly watching for; or a shift south of any of the coming week's rain events.  For now, the Thanksgiving Week looks pretty darn fine.  Go out and get some.

Southern Side of AR.

This morning the southern side of the AR has shifted over our town.  Not that much rain recorded yet on the west side.  A few tenths of an inch.  Less than a quarter inch as of 9:30 this morning.  Almost two inches in parts of the Santa Cruz Mountains.  Areas north of us have also seen a fair amount of rain so far, with Daly City and San Francisco reporting over an inch or rain since midnight.  And they had nearly a third of an inch yesterday, compared to our several hundredths of an inch.  Misty out there, as I type.  There is still a good push of rain to come, as the main stream of the AR pushes over us later this afternoon.  Thing is, as it pushes over us, the feed also dies off.  But we will still get a good rainfall from the combination with the storm pushing it south.  So yeah.  More rain, and wind today.  In fact, through Friday noon, the GFS puts a bullseye of over three inches in the mountains out our backdoor.  That is a lot more rain to come.

Expect rain to get heavy as the day wears on.  Late in the afternoon and early evening still looks like the heaviest period.  New to the forecast is rain sticking around a bit more after midnight, so it looks like your Friday morning commute could still be a wet one.  With several inches of water haven fallen in the past day.

I'll update this page later today with now cast for the storm.  Love watching this thing from my window.  I can see the clouds streaming across the sky.  I love getting a slight glimpse of Monterey before clouds shroud it again.

9PM UPDATE:  Gonna be quick.  AR is now gone, and essentially would be south of us.  It will pump in some rain to Big Sur, but this system is winding down quick.  We could still see some showers overnight, but those look rare.  Temps are still in the upper 50s, so it is warm.  We got almost an inch here on the Westside, 1.45" in SF, and in the Santa Cruz Mountains, at Love Creek, the gauge busted at 2.38" at 10AM.  So we can assume more rain fell there later in the day.

Expect sun tomorrow.  Maybe even by morning.  Warming trend.  Could be fine weather for the holiday week, with even 70F possible.

Upping The Game!

Well, GFS this morning has really pumped up the rain totals forecast for this 36 hour storm coming our way.  It also keeps the vast amount of rain to our north.  But not that far.  The coastal bullseye in in SF with five inches of rain by midnight Friday.  Seven inches in the northern Sierra.  Let's lay out the current time line as per the current run of the GFS.  Rain arrives after midnight tonight.  Less than a quarter inch by 6AM; so light rain.  But not for long.  The beast arrives mid to late morning and with a fury.  And it lasts all day.  We could see several inches here in town.  It will be a windy, rainy day.  Oh, and the wind.  That should start whipping up out of the south this evening.  It will be breezy overnight and tomorrow.  The rain may be hardest around sunset tomorrow, as the AR center moves from north of us, to south of us.  This will shift that wind to northerly and bring cooler air.  This will be the onset for snow at pass levels and below.  Rain should shift south of us by midnight.  Friday looks sunny.

So, again, a rainy and very windy day Thursday.  Yesterday I warned about the morning commute.  Now it seems it will be the afternoon commute that is worrisome.  If we get those several inches in town, or anywhere near that amount, in town, it will be even wetter over the hill.  All that water hitting pavement needs to run some where.  At least we've had a few rain storms to lift some of that oil.  Still, expect accidents and delays coming home Thursday.  Plan for it, and you won't be a part of it.

This is a quick moving, very wet system.  I was going to say fierce, but it is not that fierce.  Just a solid amount of water.  Be prepared.  It will be fun to watch from here.

Low 60s climbing to mid 60s through the weekend.  Even warmer next week.  Chance for rain still around Monday and Tuesday.  More on that storm on Friday.  For now, we are watching the weather.

Edit to add:  Oh, yeah, we will get a few burst of showers this afternoon and evening.  In fact I've noticed three, but nothing measured yet.

It is Gonna Rain - For Reals

Another very nice day on the record books.  Tomorrow will be different.  Rain is likely by evening, and definite after midnight.  The main AR stream will be to our north when this thing hits, and it will then shift south.  The heaviest rain may be for a brief Several hours in our region, but the entire rain event likely will last over 30 hours.  Rain pushes hard ashore from the south west Wednesday afternoon.  It will be a hose for norcal.  Overnight and into mid day Thursday, there will be a ton of rain to our north.  Here in Santa Cruz, we could see over an inch of rain by late morning Thursday.  Maybe even two.  This will make the Thursday morning commute a real headache.  Be prepared if you are headed over the hills.  And we will get a first glimpse of how our new hydrology management systems will perform over the winter.  But don't worry too much.  This is not January 2017.  That was for reals for reals.

The heaviest rain will have shifted south by mid day Thursday, and the AR seems to turn down.  We could still see upwards of a half inch of rain Thursday afternoon, so don't put away those rain coats.  Showers abate Thursday overnight, but we could still see some light showery weather on Friday morning as the storm center shifts well east.  But it will be essentially a sunny day.  The back end of the storm has slightly cooler weather in store, but it rebounds nicely to the mid 60s by Saturday.  Ahead of the next system.  As it stands now, it looks like it will be a fine sunny start to Sunday, with just enough evening clouds to make that sunset pop.  Rain fills in overnight and looks quite heavy on Monday.  NorCal getting a lot of of wide spread rain, with moderate amounts to the south.  Early forecast for an inch or so of rain.  Still a fair amount, but nothing compared to the five plus inches to our north.  Stay tuned for this one.

As for snow, still a question how and when the moisture falls and what to temps will be.  No big change in that forecast.  1-2 feet at 7000 feet, with three or more above 9K.  It is looking a little warmer mid storm this morning, so we will need to see how it all falls.  The real snow concern will be this next storm. It looks real warm, without much of a cold component.  With some luck, another, third, but small system, will lay a fresh few inches for the holiday week skiers.  I don't care.  I've still a month plus before I can wear a ski boot.

Nothing New, Ultimately.

Ultimately.  Pretty nice out there today.  The morning's clouds and light precipitation has burned off to sunshine.  Mild.  NOAA still calling for showers likely today.  Dwindling overnight.  I still think it is mostly likely to shower after sunset.  Just a bit.  A tenth of an inch or so.  And more sunshine again tomorrow.  There is still a lot of variables to the storm coming later this week, but everyone one is inline for a solid rain storm starting Wednesday.  This could be the first big storm of the winter.

The GFS has things coming in fast and furious.  The Euro holds the worst of the storm off until later in the evening into Thursday morning.  Regardless, rain starts on Wednesday as early as late morning, continuing through the day on Thursday.  It will be warm at the start, in the mid to upper 60s.  A high elevation cold front moves through early Thursday, but it will stay quite warm on the coast.  Low to mid 50s.  Thursday will be cooler, with a high of about 60F.  This should be just cold enough for some high elevation snow.  But first, our rain.  I'm seeing it hold off a bit.  Wednesday could be quite pleasant.  Rain impacting us from the north to south after sunset.  Light until midnight or so, then it gets heavy.  We will likely see an inch or more here in town by noon on Thursday, with significant amounts forecast in the Santa Cruz Mountains.  The bulk of the storm will move south by mid day, leaving us will light showers for the afternoon.  And cooler weather.  Rain and mid to high elevation snow continues in the Sierra into Friday morning.  

Sunny and low 60s for Friday and Saturday.  We could see a return to rain on Sunday.  Regardless, it will be warm, with temps in the mid 60s.  We will need to watch this system for next week.  Either warm southerly storm or a protective high pressure.  We will need to see.

So, snowfall.  There are better outlets for detailed snow forecasts, but here is the jist of it.  Snow starts above 9000 feet on Wednesday, lowering to 8000 feet through the day.  Overnight it cools further, dropping snow levels to about 7000 feet Thursday morning, and further to 6000 feet as the cold front moves through.  All in all, we could see several inches at lake level by Friday morning, with up to four feet above 9000 feet.  What falls in between will be determined by when the most rain falls, and at what temperature.  All in all, we could see over 5 inches of precipitation on the crest.

Welcome to fall and get ready for winter folks. 

Wet and Wild??

Wow the mid to long term this morning looks wet.  Let us start with today and the next few days first though.  Mild out there today.  Feels warm in the sun right about now.  Not hot, though.  My pole beans are starting to rebel.  Anyway, beautiful sun with some high level haze on the southern horizon.  Cool night time temps expected, dipping into the upper 40s.  Monday should start fairly clear, but more clouds moving in, with a storm moving though to our north on Monday.  By late Monday night or early Tuesday morning, enough will sag south to give us some light precipitation.  NOAA is calling for this system to arrive earlier.  Both forecasts call for a few tenths of an inch at most.  This storm is really hanging out to the north.  Expect showers.  Maybe during the middle of the day Monday, but maybe during the night.

We have another system arriving on Wednesday.  Fairly warm this one.  We should see some sun on Tuesday, into Wednesday morning, but clouds move in quickly mid week.  There is a forecasted AR moving into the coast to our north late Wednesday, then shifting just south of us by mid day Thursday.  This system could bring significant rain and high elevation snow to the Sierra.  Snow levels are in question.  From today's models, it seems like a lot of rain falling up to above 10K, but lowering snow levels during the second half of the storm.  It is feasible this could be a base builder.  Or a washout.  Or, like some many storm events over the last few weeks, back off considerably in the next few days.  It is worthwhile to expect out first period of heavy rain to begin Wednesday, peak overnight, and continue through the day Thursday.  Highs in the low 60s, low around 50 Wednesday night, and cooler there after.  Sunshine for Friday and next weekend it would seem.

Fantasy charts has another AR fed storm early in the week prior to Thanksgiving.  Another chance of too much rain, plenty of snow, or just fantasy model hype.  Watch the weather, as the next week plus could be more heavy rain events.  The wet season is trying to bust down that door.  Lucky for me, I got a little more work done in the yard.  What I could get to on crutches.  But at least erosion won't destroy me; I hope.

Grey Sky.

Last night was underwhelming and very welcome by myself.  Still have a number of projects under way that are not yet ready for winter.  Having had a broken ankle for nearly two months sure did slow me down on my seasonal wrap up.  Anyway, just a hair over a tenth of an inch on the Western Drive this morning.  Falling over two hours but mostly from 1 to 2AM, and again from 3:50 to 4:20 this morning.  Very light rain folks.  OTOH, it rained up on, and over the other side of the mountains.  A rain gauge at Love Creek, near Ben Lomond has recorded almost two inches since 4 o'clock yesterday afternoon.  Almost half an inch at Saratoga Hills, and still raining lightly this morning.

A small, but solid cell is running across the Santa Cruz mountains just north of town and Highway 17.  Expect some of those streams and creeks be moving through today.  No real flooding, but perhaps some moving water.  The cell is moving north west, parallel to the highway.  If another comes ashore ten miles south, we could see some burst of showers or even a heavy squall.  Another, larger, but weaker, more dispersed cell is moving into the Tahoe area.  Maybe some light, upper mountain snow.  

It was cool last night, warming past 50F just before 9AM this morning.  Slate grey out there now with that rain just to our north.  Cool, in the low 50s.  It should warm up to the low 60s today.  Clouds hang around.  I don't see much evidence of much of a chance of rain by late afternoon.  Of course, a small piece of the larger system well to our north could always break away and send a bit of showers our way.  Cool night time temps in the upper 40s.  Low 60s by day.  Clearing on Friday, but still clouds and some chance for a wrap around shower.  Partly to mostly sunny for the weekend, with another chance for showers Monday night.

It will be a brief period for a chance of rain.  Some warming on the sunnier days.  Will look at the long term over this weekend.  Worth getting out today and playing around.

Update: Humpday

Even less rain!  Forecast as posted this morning, which was written Tuesday.  Clouds out there.  Gorgeous sunrise this morning.  Rain after midnight.  Dropping forecast to two thirds of an inch in town.  Or less.  Mostly overnight, but sticking around during the day tomorrow.

Still looks like some rain Monday night.  This morning, the GFS flipped in the long term again.  So instead of a a big fat high pressure, we will have a weak one, with storms just to our north for a few weeks.  We will need to see how this one plays out.  If this new forecast is accurate, a slight shift on path and we could be in for more rain.

For now, plan for a windy evening, and some rain.

On Track.

Okay.  Sorry about the lack of actual posting last night.  I did not realize the page was frozen off line.  Anyway, forecast for this week looks like it was pretty on  A few changes below.  A decent day out there today with a moderate north east breeze on the bay.  Cool right now.  Just about 50F out at 10AM.  No real swell out there.  Kind of more of the same tomorrow.  NOAA is still calling for a chance of rain on Wednesday, but the GFS noon run today has it holding off until after midnight, or the early morning hours of Thursday.  Regardless, clouds for Wednesday and temps topping in the mid 60s.  I'd be ready for some periods of rain during the day or early evening, but the bulk comes late.  Winds increase from the south all day and could be quite gusty in the evening out of the south west.  Top gust could hit 25 or more miles per hour.  Make sure things are buckled down.

Total rainfall forecasts for our region have increased, even though the storm path has shifted north.  It looks like a southern flank will swing right into us, getting some orographic assist.  Best guess for heaviest rain is from 3AM through 10AM.  Rain event could last through the day and evening on Thursday.  I guess another change from yesterday'd forecast is the burst of heavy early morning rain, but ultimately a shorter period of rain.  Plan for about a quarter inch plus in the morning, with totals of up to three quarters of an inch in town.  An inch plus in the mountains, with some localities getting a good bit more.  It seems like NOAA and the GFS have come in tune with each other this morning.

Best bet is for clearing Thursday overnight.  Some clouds on Friday.  Low 60s.  Cool weather for the weekend.  Lows in the 40s and highs in the low 60s.  But it should be mostly sunny.

The forecast for next week has us getting hit pretty hard with a storm Monday evening.  A swift moving gale.  We could see an inch or more overnight.  Still a ways off, but this could be a solid storm.  Long term the next storm stays well north as high pressure increases.  We could be back into fair, and warming weather, through the latter half of the month.  More to come.

Storms Backing Off.

(Monday evening's post)

First things first.  Cool weather we are having.  Mostly clear out.  Gonna be another chilly night dropping into the low 40s.  Sun in the morning, with a slightly earlier sunrise.  Warming to the low 60s by afternoon.  But be ready for quick afternoon cooling with a sunset around 5PM.  It looks like we have more rain coming our way.  The GFS has been backing off this storm, and the 6PM run has this storm almost missing us completely.  It will need an update tomorrow, but going with the latest run, here it is.

Clouds fill in overnight Tuesday, keeping temps a little warmer, in the upper 40s.  Wednesday will be cloudy, but it could be spotty early.  Mid 60s.  Rain fills in late. It could hold off until after midnight. Mid 50s.   Rain looks to fall heaviest in the early morning hours, with light showers possible through the day Thursday.  We are looking at about a third inch in town and a half or so in the mountains.  Pretty high snow levels, above 8K, in the Tahoe zone.  Mid 60s on Thursday.  Clouds remain, and chance for wrap around showers.  There will be moisture in the region.

Chances for showers decrease over night, with lows again in the mid 50s.  Friday will see much more sun, but we could see sporadic showers in the morning.  Still, totals likely to be less than a 1/2 inch here in town.  The weekend looks nice, with sunshine and some daytime warming, but overnight lows dropping back into the upper 40s.  Looks like my pole beans will have a hard time setting flowers.  I sure could use a three or four day warm spell with daytime highs in the 70s.  Wouldn't that be nice.

So, I sad a nice weekend.  Up until earlier today, we had a pretty cold storm hitting us Sunday.  Then it was Monday.  Now it is Tuesday.  But barely scraping us here in Santa Cruz.  Check in tomorrow for updates on this mid week system and news about what will come early next week.

The Euro.

I awoke last night around 3AM to the pat pat pat of rain on a sun roof.  This morning, on the deck, I was sure the Euro model was the big winner, bringing in the storm earlier and wetter.  Or so it seemed.  Nearly a third of an inch fell between 2:30 and 3:45, and again from 7:45 to 8:45 this morning. Two separate hour or so long bursts.  Then nothing.  All day and evening.  There is a bunch of rain falling well north of Sacramento right now.  And some just came off the bay.  I was seeing it approach on radar, but out the window, seemed to clear up, and then it was raining.  Didn't last long, but it was a heavy two minutes of rain.  Looks clear out the window all the way across the bay and on the radar as well.  Still, expect more rain tonight.  GFS still has us getting another few tenths of an inch before midnight Saturday.

This storm looked like it had a big sub tropical moisture stream up until a few days ago. Now it is looking like a decent few days.  Today would have been wonderful for a walk under the redwoods.  Fall Creek will have a bit more flow tomorrow.  Rain is still possible.  Looks like it is most likely over night and into the morning hours.  But showers could come at any time.  Like that two minute downpour a few minutes ago.

Sunday is looking better and better each model run, and while moisture is still around into Monday, we should be rain free through mid day Wednesday.  Then we have another system to take a look at. And then another after that still.  We are in an active pattern.  

Teeing Off.

Clouds have moved in today.  The sun peaked out for a bit, but it is mostly obscured.  Gorgeous light out on the bay right now.  Clear straight across and you can distinctly see the Monterey Peninsula sticking out into the Pacific.  Stunning.  Mild out there, in the mid 60s.  This will be the warmest it will be for a bit now.  I'm vacuuming out my floor heater today.  Gotta burn it out before the need comes to turn on the heat.  It is good to keep the windows open that first run of the season, otherwise the modern high tech alarms begin to sound.  Anyway, clouds and mild overnight, with temps dropping to the mid low 50s.  Not cold yet.



Friday is cloudy, with temps only reaching about 60F.  Wind should increase out of the south.  The GFS keeps us dry in the morning.  The Euro brings in rain before morning.  Going with the combo, expect light showers to start late morning.  Mostly very light until nightfall, when light rain becomes more likely.  Two tenths of an inch by midnight or so.  Low 50s.  Rain tapers overnight, and we could see it take a break just around sunrise.  Wouldn't that be nice.  The GFS is actually suggesting we fall into a little bit of a rain shadow through mid day, but not all day.  A second round of rain looks like it could swing through Saturday afternoon.  This currently looks like a short, but heavier burst.  Perhaps a quarter inch over a few later afternoon hours, tapering around dark.

As of now, it looks like this storm system will be east and south of us by Sunday day break.  As of now, it stays dry into Tuesday, but there is moisture swirling all around.  As of now Wednesday into Thursday looks very wet.  But hey, that is still a week out.  And, as we have seen, a lot can change in a week, so nothing is set in stone.  Not even tomorrow.  But plan for rain.

Slight Peddle Back.

Well, the GFS has continued to trend drier, with this weekend's storm possibly splitting at SF, with much of the moisture by passing Santa Cruz.  Still, we are going to get plenty of rain.  Looks like a quarter to half inch in town, with more in the likely in the hills. Still, this is a decent drop in forecast.  The lions share of this storm will hit the Sierra north of Tahoe on Saturday, as well as the shoreline south of Monterey to the Channel Islands.  Let's look at the day to day for this coming week.  Nothing is pinned down, but we have a general idea of what will come to pass.

Today is cool, and wonderful.  Sun.  Some light wind coming out of the northwest.  Tomorrow we see more cloud cover fill in, as the storm begins to sag south.  We could see some showers moving ashore later in the day Thursday, but likely that will hold off even to mid morning on Friday.  It will be in the mid to upper 60s today, but that will drop to the low 60s for the next few days after that.  Expect rain to fill through the evening Friday, but still light to showery weather.  Snow will begin to fall above 7500 feet in the Sierra.

Desolation Wilderness, with Spur Ridge.  February, 2017.  These peaks will see snow.

The heaviest rain should fall overnight Friday night.  I know, these forecasts keep on flipping.  Just goes to show, we don't really know.  By mid day Saturday we could be lucky to see the heaviest rain move south of us, as the storm centers split.  Showers could continue through the afternoon, but should dry out overnight.  A cold front also moves through, so expect those overnight lows to drop into the mid 40s.

We could still showery weather on Sunday, as rain is forecasted to our south, east and north.  As well as Monday.  Temps stay in the mid 40s through mid 60s, with slight warming Monday into Tuesday.  At least that is what it looks like today.  Updates again tomorrow.  Hell, by then I will be able to look out the window and tell you if it started raining.

Past seven days, we remain in a trough set up, so that storm door will remain open.  Looking at the fantasy models, we dodge the worst of the storms and get brushed again with light rain mid next week.  This time, along the southern edge of the storm.  More to come.