Wednesday, October 26, 2016

Subtropical Absorption.

Coastal marine layer style drizzle this morning.  Another hundredth of an inch accumulated on King Street, but nothing showing inland.  At all.  This should break up fairly early and we are still hopeful for a nice autumnal sunny day.  That cooler air did not seem to get deposited, with the morning temps in the upper 50s.  I'd expect us to warm to the upper 60s, if not 70F, with the sun today.  Especially with the light south flow over the open water.  Although, warming to the 70s can take a few days in the fall, and we have more clouds, wind and rain arriving on Thursday with a boost from a dying Hurricane Seymour.  We would be stoked for the surf this thing is generating if it were typical mid summer hurricane season.  But it will be buried in what is being generated by all this rain systems.

Back to writing several hours later and that light drizzle has finally cleared.  And we accumulated another 1/100th".  As for the impeding rain, Thursday morning looks fair, with rain holding off until noonish.  This system is going to slam into Big Sur and Pt Conception, so most of the liquid will be south of us.  That said, as it runs ashore, it will spread out and give moderate rains to all of south central California.  Afternoon temps will be in the mid 60s.  Rainfall increases after dark and through the early morning hours of Friday.  Friday morning commute will be wild folks.  Be prepared.  Rain will slowly begin to taper by mid day, but expect wide spread showers to continue through sunset Friday.  Rain should dissipate by Friday morning, after dropping about an inch here in town.  Saturday morning will be a nice break from the rain.  A break, because there is more to come.

Still a lot of in the air, but the next system upstream begins bringing showers back in Saturday evening.  This system will be to our north, not south, and may sweep through quickly.  Or may drive right at us.  GFS 5 day precip totals in the Santa Cruz Mountains is over three inches, with about two here in town.  Will need to see how this plays out.  And there are more storms up stream, but it looks like those will impact the PNW directly.  More to come.

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