Thursday, October 27, 2016

Wet Weekend.

Rain fills in for this afternoon, strongest through the early morning hours on Friday; tapering in the afternoon.  Threat of showers persist through mid day Saturday.  We have a little break Saturday evening into Sunday morning.  Rain fills back in Sunday afternoon.  That about sums it up.  There are a bunch of warnings going on out there, including mud slide warnings for areas recently burned.  We are expecting some heavy rain fall from around midnight through 8AM on Friday.  The commute will be impacted for sure.

Totals from the two weekend storms look impressive.

So, how is all this water treating California? The last system brought another 1.2% of the state out of Abnormally Dry and into Normal conditions.  It did not change any of the areas impacted more significantly.  We still have over 42% of the state listed at Extreme or Exceptional.  The good news is the storm arriving today is going to get quite a bit further south than most storms in the last several seasons.  Coming ashore near Point Conception, pushing rain into all parts of the state except the extreme desert southwest.  In fact, it will rain in all those 42% of land mentioned above, with several inches forecast in the San Bernardino and southern Sierra.  Still, the vast majority of rain will fall in NorCal with bullseyes forecast at 4" in Big Sur, 6" in the Trinity Range, and 9" near Lassen.  So, this weekend will treat us pretty well and is starting us off for a good water year.

And, now for the snow.  I have a few friends who are talking about snow and schussing.  They get super exceited this time of year when ever it rains.  So, what about the snow?  The Thurs/Fri storm is pretty damn warm.  While it is expected to get a decent amount of moisture of to the Sierra Crest (despite staying off shore until it gets south), freezing levels will be above 9000 feet.  Much of Tahoe peaks out between 8-10K.  The southern Sierra, OTOH, has some of the highest peaks, including Mt. Witney.  Areas above 10,000 feet could receive several feet of snow, setting up the base base the lower eastside has seen in years.  Fingers crossed.  The Sun/Mon storm is colder, and snow levels will drop to about 7500' or lower.  This one is impacting the north, but should be good enough to bring about a foot of snow to Tahoe.  Still several says out, so stay tuned.

Wet.  Get out this morning or look for the break Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning.  To early to tell, but rain could subside by Trick or Treat time Monday night.  Still, best plan on at least a wet ground.

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