We have several more days of exquisite weather. Cool mornings, but not too cold. Low 50s here on the west side. Warm to almost hot afternoons. We topped 80F 5 out of the last seven days. It will begin to be a touch cooler, as a large storm system approaches the coast beginning tonight. It will continue to push up against the high pressure until is beat down late Saturday and dissipates and drifts north east. So, mid 70s today, upper 60s through the weekend. Then things start to take a turn for the wet. The high pressure will inflate on Monday, and just enough to slow an incoming system on Tuesday. But not enough to stop it.
We should a bit more clouds on Tuesday. Not that it has been absolutely clear. In fact, on Monday afternoon we had some clouds move in around 3PM, and it really cooled things down. Anyway, we see a chance for some light rain in Santa Cruz on Tuesday night. Current models suggest about a tenth to a quarter inch in town with less than a half inch in the mountains. Perhaps just enough to water the garden.
Things break by lunch on Wednesday and the rest of the week looks more clear. Although, there is plenty of systems that want to run across us, so it will be a battle between the high pressure and the low pressures. Today's model run suggest a very wet Sunday the 20th through Tuesday the 22nd. But that is out in fantasy model range, so time will tell.
And now, for you turkey day skiers. There is not really any base up on the resorts yet. Especially at the big snowmaking resorts. The good news is that Tuesday's system will usher in some colder air. It may drop a foot of snow at the crest and a few inches at the lake. But the snow guns will be able to turn on. With some luck, we could see another sizable snowfall the 20th-22nd to help set up some fun turkey day conditions. Expect nothing epic. Some WRODS, and maybe a few natural trails at places like Kirkwood. Watch the weather.