Wintery.

Very crisp this and the past few mornings.  Upper 30s to low 40s on the west side.  This morning I can see frost of on the roofs of unheated portions of homes.  Attics and sheds and such.  Up in the Sierra, it is cold enough to keep the snow making machines rolling.  Combine with some natural snow, Kirkwood opens up on Black Friday.  Red Dog is scheduled to be open at Squaw today.  Other resorts are opening up.  It looks like ski season has begun.

Thanksgiving will be pleasant in Santa Cruz.  Sunny, with a high in the low 60s.  That sun will feel great while it is out.  By Friday we will be moving back towards wet weather.  Clouds fill in mid day Friday, with rain likely by night fall.  Chances for rain increase overnight.  There could be copious and heavy rain overnight.  Could be.  Depends which model you prefer.  The GFS is forecasting that most rain holds off until mid day on Saturday.  Regardless of what the solution is, expect a good rain sometime on Saturday.  And a second burst on Sunday.

My current thinking is awesome Thanksgiving weather, with some moderate afternoon NW wind.  Clouds increasing on Friday with some showers overnight.  While the storm will bring colder air, overnight lows will increase to the upper 40s with the cloud cover.  Daytime highs will linger in the upper 50s over the weekend.  Rain will fall in the early morning hours Saturday and into mid day.  Another round will come through in the evening hours, and then a second storm system on Sunday.  Expect the entire weekend to be a rainy period.  Probably a good idea to head to the snow.

Storms clear out by Sunday evening and we return to a partly cloudy sky on Monday and some slight warming.  Kind of back to where we are with low 40s overnight and low 60s in the afternoon.

Oh, and there is some surf out there this morning.  Get sum, then eat a bird.