Friday, January 27, 2017


Nearly half of the state is out of surface water drought as of last Tuesday.  We did not see any appreciable rain across the state since then, so we can assume no additional change. No portion of the state is still in Exceptional Drought, with just a hair over 2% (around Santa Barbara) in extreme drought.  To round it out, just a hair under 25% is in Moderate Drought and a hair less than that in Severe Drought.  These are some really good numbers and some good news.  There is some more good news for the drought in the long term forecast models.  We will get to that in a moment.

It is crisp out there this morning.  37F currently in my neighborhood.  The sun is coming up and offering a glorious start of the day.  It will warm to near 60F today.  Over the coming weekend it will be even warmer as the high pressure bubbles up upon us bringing in warmth  It looks like we will hit the peak on Monday, in the mid 60s.  Does anyone miss the drought, even just a little bit?  I recall mid 70s for over a week in the winter.  Beach days.  Sure, we need this water, and this snow, and I like it (really), but I do crave tucking my toes in the sand as well.  Anyway, back to the forecast, we will begin to see day time highs drop starting on Tuesday as another large, wet storm system starts to take shape to our west.

This one looks like its leading edge could come ashore sometime on Wednesday.  This morning's model run suggest a late evening start time to the rain, lasting into Friday morning.  Previous runs had it arriving mid day Wednesday.  It has looked like a slow moving system for the last few runs regardless, and likely to last 36-48 hours.  Initially, it runs right atop us, then begins to pull north.  So we should see moderate to heavy rain, shifting to showers.  Of course, this is still 6 days out, so confidence is low.

It looks like a break next weekend, with more storms lined up in the long term.  Several more.  Looks like Ma Nature is giving us just a long enough break to see some of that surface water percolate down to the aquifers before bringing us more rain to handle.  Good on her.  While we work our way out of surface water drought, we still need to replenish the ground water we have been sucking on for years.
Have a good weekend folks.  Time to get out and enjoy the wonderful weather and the abundance of greenery here in Santa Cruz.  Go find a waterfall.  They are going off right now.  Or simply enjoy a Pogonip stroll.  Or watch the surf action today.  Yesterday the last in a series of large swell arrived.  This one to clean local conditions.  It will be a great weekend to get outside.  We have more rain on the way.  I'll keep an eye out on this next train of storms and report back here.

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