Monday, January 9, 2017

Backing Down.

The AR shifted south of us yesterday, sparing Santa Cruz of a deluge.  We are totaled only 3.68" so far from this storm.  While impressive, most of that dropped before Sunday morning, so it seemed that we would have hit over 5 inches based on forecasts from Sunday.  But then Mother Nature had different plans.  The rain will dissipate early today, as the bullseye for rain today is in the Southern Sierra and the coastal mountains north of L.A..  We are looking at maybe a tenth of an inch through today.  It will be in the mid 50s, cloudy and decently breezy.  Nothing like yesterday's storm wind though.  That was truly impressive and I am sure led to some downed trees.  We've made it through round one of this cycle folks.  Get out side today.  Clean a storm drain.  Or your yard.  Get some fresh air and exercise.  But keep an eye out, and be prepared for, showers to pop up during the day.  This is not an off day; just a light day.

Some colder air is moving into the region with this next system.  As stated before, we won't feel much of an effect of this, being here right on the coast.  The GFS guidance this morning suggest that the next system will see the AR move north to south starting tomorrow morning.  Rain should move back in for the morning commute.  Light at first, and since the roads will have had a day to kind of dry out (or at least un-flood) I imagine the dry Tuesday being better than the one going on right now.  That rain will fill in tough mid day, and may be heavy at times by afternoon, although the morning model runs suggest the heaviest rain will wait until the period from midnight through early Wednesday morning.  This could set up for another nasty AM drive.  About an inch and a half through the period.  While this is a small accumulation when compared to 3.68", it has no where to go.  And remember these numbers are for the city of Santa Cruz.  Much more has fallen and will fall in the local mountains.  The ground is super saturated, so all that water rushes to the sea.  Or a reservoir.  Regardless of its final destination, it will run along the top of the ground.

Things clear out nicely on Wednesday by mid day.  Light showers could continue, but will not be wide spread.  It still looks like we will see a third system for Thursday morning, but this morning it looks fast moving.  This will of course need to be updated, but it looks like another morning system with less than an inch of rain for us.

GFS also clears us out for the weekend now.  It is looking like we could be seeing some sunshine soon.  And possibly a little warming as we see high pressure set up on us for several days.  Currently it does not look like an extended dry period, with more storms forecast returning mid next week.  That is ten days out, so, really, no idea what will really happen.  Stay safe.

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