Wednesday, January 18, 2017

And so it begins.

The second series of storms for the month of January are knocking on our door.  There was a quick bout of light rain this morning, but that has subsided.  It did not show on the gauge so I assume it was less than 1/100 of an inch.  Forecast still calls for the rain moving in after sunset.  Heavy tonight.  Heavy enough that the Thursday morning commute could be a bear.  In town the forecast totals were bumped up to an inch and a half for town with over two inches in the mountains.  We could see some serious water drop, as that is the precipitation by noon on Thursday.  Most of that falls during the dark hours of the night.  In fact, 1.69" is the forecast bullseye, in the Santa Cruz Mountains, from midnight through 6AM.  Watch out for flash floods in low lying areas, and keep an eye out for that mud sliding.  It should not be as bad as last week, but the earth is still draining, and this new water will try to run along the surfaces.

This system moves south along the coast by mid day Thursday.  Showers continue through the day.  We hang in the mid 50s.  We could see breaks in the rainy weather, so time it well, and you can play outside.  Just be ready for a shower.  A good afternoon to stomp some fresh puddles, and wear a slicker.  It looks like we will have a dry period during the light night hours Thursday.  By Friday morning, the next system will move ashore.  This one currently looks a bit wetter for the state, but NOAA is forecasting it dryer for Santa Cruz.  We will need to see how that plays out over the next 36 hours.  Expect the heaviest rain mid day through evening on Friday, with showers lasting into Saturday morning.  We might see the sun briefly Saturday afternoon, ahead of the next storm on Sunday.

Rainfall totals for the week could exceed four inches here in town, and up to ten inches in the coastal mountains.  Widespread amounts exceeding seven inches in the north coast mountains and along the Sierra west slope.  A good amount for the south as well.  In fact the Whitney Portal zone is the bullseye for total precip with 12.3" forecast through next Tuesday.  Let's watch these begin their play.

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