Thursday, January 19, 2017

Swift and Early.

I was wondering yesterday around 5PM if this system was just early, or much stronger than anticipated.  1.25" fell in my neighborhood all before 9:30PM yesterday.  We have received only a few hundredths since then.  For a storm that was forecast to rage overnight, this one clearly came in early.  The good news is we have a fairly nice day on tap today because of it.  Chance for showers through the morning, but little rain through the bulk of today.  But this evening is when the fun starts.  The second storm in the series fills in tonight.  Another inch expected through the day on Friday, with showers lingering into Friday night.  The big news will be the surf.  And coastal flooding.

The good news is that the high high is not all that high.  They will occur prior to sunrise.  With the rivers swollen, and a major swell expected to hit, low lying areas will still be prone to ocean flooding.   I'm talking to you Lake Moran.  Anyway, rain tapers on Saturday morning.  On Friday a large, long period well begins to arrive and expected to peak on Saturday at 20 feet at 17 seconds.  That would send Mavs into the 40 foot range.  On West Cliff surf will range from 15' upwards to 30 foot at Middle Peak.  The zone near Mitchell's Cove and Woodrow will likely see surf coming onto the road.  Please use extreme caution when approaching the water this coming weekend.  With that super saturated earth, you can expect for some portions of the cliff to fall into the sea.  Big time stuff here.

About a foot of sow fell in the Sierra since yesterday morning.  Another foot expected on Friday.  Setting up for a good weekend for schussing, but not bluebird.  Another storm is fast approaching behind number two and should be here by late in the day Saturday.  This one is look the wettest of the bunch.  Kind of a flip from the last rainy period that started strong and ended mild.  We will need to watch the Sunday system, but likely it will make the Monday commute hellish.  And cause some local flooding, downed trees and the such.

I've heard a lot of people starting to talk about how we don't need any more rain; that the reservoirs are full and all of this just runs to the sea.  But we do need more rain.  This will help to slowly refresh our ground water and aquifers that have been dried out over the last half decade and more.  Further, more rain helps to flush out the rivers, create sand bars and refresh habitats.  We are not done yet.

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