Tuesday, November 15, 2011

Break continues through Thursday. Rain returns for our weekend, and beyond.

Great time of year to stroll fire roads through coastal hardwoods.  Pogonip.
So, if you are a Thanksgiving skier, you are probably starting to get an little antsy and fear you will be riding on the White Ribbon of Death, or otherwise known as a man made strip of snow.  Fear not, as we still have a chance to get some natural snow before we carve our turkeys.  As for you fair weather loving folk, you can begin to fear, as our rather wet and cool November will continue.



It is beautiful out there today, and except for last Friday's rain and wind, things have been decent.  Not quite like some of that October weather we had, but as we edge toward December and winter, the shorter days and Pacific storms make it that much harder to reach 80, or 70 even.  Still, mild weather with highs around 60 should continue through the middle of the week, with the change again coming on Friday.  A cold front will push down the coast, with the bulk of the storm moving inland well to the north of us.  Still, this system is broad enough for us to get some good showers on Friday and see some of them lingering through Saturday.  And it is going to get cold, with high temperatures in the low to mid 50s along the coast and in the valleys.  Cooler up high.  Santa Cruz could see a frost early on Saturday morning, with lows dipping into the low to mid 30s.  Freezing levels could dip as low as 2000 feet.  Say hello to snow capped peaks San Jose.  Of course, a lot still will depend on where the core of this system comes inland.

A series of storms are lined up behind this one, so we can expect turbulent weather through next week and Thanksgiving.  Or at least plan on it, including adding some driving time as you head to your holiday destinations.  I don't really want to do too much predicting on the long term, but models have a significant storm coming into the region next Wed/Thurs, so those big travel days could be difficult.  More look to line up behind them, through the end of the month, before high pressure, and fair weather returns for early December.  It could be just what the resorts need to get their season started.  For safe bets, Northstar, Heavenly and Mammoth all plan to be in operation just prior to Thanksgiving.  The rest of the resorts really rely on natural snow to get up and going.

Sunset on Main Beach in Santa Cruz.  In summer thousands pack this beach.  Now, just like 5 walk it.

So, the rest of this week.  Sun and cool mornings around 40-45F.  Day time highs around 60-65F.  A little warmer in the best spots, and a little cooler in the west facing coastal locations.  By Thursday evening, clouds dominate and showers may fill in.  Watch that evening commute.  Cooler, in the low to mid 50s, on Friday and through the weekend, with chance of rain (greatest on Friday).  Slight warming after that, but more rain currently in the forecast.

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