On Schedule. Rain this Evening. And getting Colder. Ice Wine anyone?

More birds near Natural Bridges,

This continue on track.  Rain fall totals look a little less on this morning's models, for the first round of storms.  Light and scattered rain moves in from the north late this evening, and filling in overnight.  Some spots around the Bay will get a 1/4 inch or more.  Especially the westerly facing slopes.  Shadowed areas, like Santa Cruz may only get a drizzle to tenth inch.  There is potential for more, but it currently looks as if this thing will not be drawing up to much water.  But it will be cold.  Temperatures drop all day, and we will be in the low to mid 40s overnight.  Showers for Friday morning, and clearing in the afternoon.


Clearing will be an issue for farmers.  Clear skies, with a cold air mass, and we start to see the signs for a frost or freeze.  Good chances that Napa Valley and other well protected coastal valleys will see a solid frost on Friday night, and even a chance for a freeze.  This will have an effect on the wine grape harvest for sure.  As well as effecting other warm loving plants, like tomatoes, eggplants, peppers and more.  We may see these dwindling in supply.  Check the Market Report in the next few days.

Saturday will remain cold and brisk, but otherwise nice, with mostly sunny skies.  Clouds return in the evening, as the second wave of cold rain hits in the early morning hours of Sunday.  More clearing for Monday, and the first half of next week could be quite pleasant; expect similar to Saturday.  Not really beach weather, but it is November after all.  Sure, yesterday was a beach day and in November, but come on.  Let's be realistic.  By late Wednesday or Thursday, another storm is expected to move down the coast.  The models are having a hard time getting a good read on this one (and it is still a week away), but it does look like it is carrying a lot of water.  Currently it looks like this thing will come ashore by Santa Barbara and drench the coast.  We look moderately wet.  Still other models have this thing staying off shore and dissipating.  It will be a cut off low, so models will remain variable.  Regardless, good chance of more cold, wet weather a week out.  After that things slowly rebound and warm.

Okay powder hounds.  Biting at the bit to get some early season turns.  Don't count on this one.  Yes, the cold will helps those resorts inclined to, to turn on the snow guns.  But the mother nature aspect will be mostly light blower and thin cover.  Not what we need to lay down the base and open up some terrain.  At least these first two storms.  At most we are expecting a foot at the Sierra Crest by Monday.  And this stuff won't stick.  Next week's storm is still too far out, but I'm not expecting anything epic.  Still, Boreal, Northstar and Heavenly should be blowing snow and be ready to go for the middle of the month.  And with the extended period of cold weather, and very cold nights, they may be able to lay down some significant WROD for you to get out and turn on.

Wednesday was a beautiful day along West Cliff Drive.  75 degrees and sunny.  In November.  Want some?

In short.  Rain tonight and Friday morning.  Cold, getting colder.  Friday and beyond will be in the 50s.  Friday night will see a frost in many areas.  Protect you plants.  Santa Cruz down to 40.  Same in the city.  Napa will be 30-35.  Cold.  Some clouds Saturday.  Rain Sunday morning.  Clear Monday through mid week.