Calm before the storm. Timing Update.

You may want to catch a movie one night this weekend and stay dry.

Not much change from yesterday, although the GFS models from today keep us quite a bit drier.  Not counting on that, as those things seem to flip flop daily.  First storm is still looking to impact our region tomorrow some time.  Rain will fill in from the north, but the bulk of this storm is to stay north of San Francisco.  With luck, Santa Cruz could stay dry tomorrow (fat chance, though).  Expect morning rains north of the city, with showers spreading south through sunset.  Friday night, we should see rain across the region, ending late.  Say around midnight.



Saturday should start off dry.  The second storm is tracking down the coast.  GFS from this morning suggest the storm stay just off the coast until well south of here.  Not going to buy into that one either, but it would be great if it were true.  These coastal sliders are difficult to pin down.  Still,  late in the day, around sunset, rain should move into the coast near San Francisco.  Showers spread south, and clear out quickly behind it.  Sunday should start with some showers, but things look to dry out quickly.  So the weekend has a pretty good chance of being decent, especially early Saturday and late Sunday.  Plan accordingly.  And if you believe this morning's models, we could see just a sprinkle of rain.

Mid range still looks the same, with clearing weather for Monday and Tuesday.  Things begin to warm up in front of the third storm, which will be bearing down on us by late Wednesday.  This one is looking to pack quite a punch, with a lot of moisture associated with it.  While not as cold as the weekend, we may see the snow begin to pile up in the mountains with this one.  You may want to thing about your contingency plans if the power goes out on you for Thanksgiving.  These first wild storms of the season have a way of knocking down power lines.

We even have a little fall color down here on the coast.

I will have more on fall plantings up in the Market & Garden Report soon, but just a note for you here.  If you have any really young seedlings, cold and heavy rains can be a challenge.  An ideal time to plant some new lettuce or kale, would be just after the end of this series of storms.  Wait for the weather to pass, and get them in the ground just as high pressure moves in, the sun returns and the days warm up.  We may have another storm after Thanksgiving, but the models are not in agreement.  And even if they were, we are just too far out to say with any certainty.  Kind of like predicting the rain tomorrow.  Likely for Marin, good chance for San Francisco, and about a coin toss for Santa Cruz.