Thanksgiving swell, Rainy week for NorCal and Splitting storms.

Nearly every year it happens.  It is almost like it signifies the start of the winter season.  This year we have already had a few decent sized swells.  And that is all this will be.  But compared to the last month of mostly dribble, we will be getting our Thanksgiving swell.  Thursday is also looking like conditions may be pretty good to get in the water.  And with everyone eating, drinking, and watching football games, the lineups tend to be thin.  Oh, and that rain may be keeping some folks inside.

A bit more swell than this is on the way.  Small days at Steamer Lane are still fun.

Around the Bay, the next few days look nice indeed.  A few clouds are out there, just to keep the sky interesting.  Mornings are crisp here at the coast, running just a touch under 40 degrees this morning, and the peak will just be about 20 degrees warmer, trying to reach 60F.  Ah, Thanksgiving weather to be sure.  And just as is likely this time of year, we are threatened with a rainy system for later this week.  On the very bright side, we are better off than NorCal and the PNW, who hare getting heavy rain all this week.  Down here, Wednesday we begin to see a transition, as more clouds begin to move in through the middle of the day.  Rain will creep south from Humboldt all morning, running over San Francisco later in the day. The last few days of model runs clearly show this storm splitting apart.  Most of the moisture is going into the PNW and south along the coast.  This is very much like the last few storms that have come through the region.  And like those, the exact dynamics and vectors are unknown.  What is different, is this storm is packing a lot of moisture, and where that moisture goes, that place will get wet.

Another empty beach.  Capitola Wharf.  Sure is peaceful around here once the summer crowds leave.

We actually got quite a bit of rain in Santa Cruz yesterday.  So we might get hit hard by this one regardless.  Point being, if this storm somehow stays together, and does not split up, it could be driven into Central California and the Sierra very hard.  That could mean dumps of rain and dumps of snow.  For now, let's assume it does split.  Tahoe could get starved.  If the southern piece of the split stays west, along the coast, very little moisture will move of the Sierra Crest.  If it is east, say about as far east or further, than yesterday's storm, Tahoe could see around a foot in the better spots.  It looks like snow over night on Wednesday and through the day onThanksgiving.  Just enough to make it pretty.  For you skiers, probably best not to wander off the WROD this coming weekend.  Colorado has already seen two fatalities.  One at Vail and one at Breckenridge.  Stay on those groomers, or know the risks.

Similar timing down on the coast.  At this early time, expect rain up to 6500 feet or so.  Depending on how everything pans out, timing could change significantly, but expect to see clearing later in the day on Thursday.  Starting from the north.  Friday high pressure starts to nose back in, and the holiday weekend is looking clear and nice.  There does exist the chance of additional waves on Friday and Sunday, but it will be a battle with the sunshine.

Safety Tip:  Today, as is typical this time of year, the Central Valley has thick night time and morning fog.  If you need to travel through the area, give yourself time to slow down and drive safely.  Most of us coastal folks don't think of the valley as foggy, but tis time of year, they get a whole bunch more than us.  And it tends to be pea soup.