Saturday, October 20, 2012

Drive Safely People. Rain Possible by Sunday Evening.

This thing is on.  The GFS has this thing upon up late Sunday and could make that Monday morning commute a bit interesting.  Folks, leave for your destinations early on Monday, as the first real rain of the season is going to lift all that accumulated oil and muck out of the road and create slicks.  This is what causes accidents - people in their usual hurry and slippery roads.  So, enough of the PSA, and for now, get ready for the storms.  The important thing to note today is that the arrival of rain has moved forward and it looks like we could see some by late Sunday.

Sunny days and clean surf are gone for the week.  May they return by month's end.  Steamer Lane, Santa Cruz.

Rain will arrive on the northern California coastline late in the day on Sunday and will push south.  By midnight we should have some rain here in the Bay, especially Marin and points north.  Once it fills in, it will fill in quickly with the heaviest precipitation falling in the afternoon on Monday.  This is a real rain event, with upwards of an inch in San Francisco.  South, here in Santa Cruz, we could be spared he worst.  But it is worth noting that the local mountains should get enough to push open all the creek mouth, which means poop in the ocean.  Check water quality reports before going for a surf next week.

The short of it is that things look pretty likely that rain will be around for us on Monday, through the night and into the morning hours on Tuesday.  And it will be chilly.  This weekend is cool, and foggy, but it ain't raining, so get outside and enjoy the day, tidy up that yard, or finish one last project.  Today's high 60s will drop by Monday and Tuesday where we be working hard to get out of the upper 50s.  Looks like things will clear up during the day on Tuesday, but not too much.  And this is where the models keep flipping back and forth, so it is hard to say what will happen next.  Some runs, the low pressure that is going to be pumping in the rain retrogrades and keep all precipitation to our north.  Other runs, this system stays upon us through the end of the week.  In the first scenario, we see sun returning by Wednesday and a nice warm up through the week's end.

In the more likely solution (say 51% to 49%) we will still see a bit of clearing for late Tuesday and into Wednesday morning, but the sun isn't really going to come out.  By mid day Wednesday the rain clouds will be moving back in.  It won't be quite as cold as the first wave, but it won't be warm.  These are pretty cold storms for October.  Thursday will be cool and wet, with clearing by late in the day.  Friday will be a day of transition to sunshine and warmth.  Last weekend of October looks nice.

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