Thursday, October 18, 2012

More rain likely. Significant rainfall possible.

Man, Autumn is awesome.  The past few days is what it is all about here on the Central Coast.  Can you give me an 85 degree day on the beach with no wind?  Can you give me a whole bunch in a row?  Surf has been small, but oh, so much fun out there, with glassy conditions all day.  And with that air temp, you don't even feel chilly.  Well, that is about to go down the tubes.  Today is awesome, so go grab a piece of it.  By tomorrow, on shore winds return, and with them, so does the marine layer.  It will almost feel like the dog days of summer around here, with foggy mornings, and breezy, cool afternoons.  Actually, it won't even feel like August, with that sun so low in the sky, the few hours of solar heating we get won't really warm things up much.  Todays high 80s are tomorrows mid 60s.  And Saturday looks like more of the same.  But don't worry, that fog won't stick around long.

Damn Seagulls!  They take all the best seats.  West Cliff Drive, Santa Cruz.

Confidence is building that by early next week we will see our first storm of the wet season.  Yeah, I know we got rain a week back, but that was not the real stuff, and you know it.  A few minutes of rain one evening and then a few days of low fog and drizzle.  Blah, really.  We did not get much water from that, and event the dry farmed tomatoes stuck it through.  If this thing comes in as forecast, then tomatoes are done.  Different models and different runs of the same model continue to show slight differences in the details, but is safe to assume that by the weekend a low pressure will develop in the eastern Gulf, right along the BC seaboard.  This system will pull in cold air and pick up moisture as it moves south, just off the coast of the CA/OR boarder.  By Monday evening it will be sending in bands of rain into Northern California, quickly spreading south.  A strong precipitation band will come across our air late Tuesday and/or early Wednesday.  Some models suggest another band, slightly weaker, coming through on Thursday.  Some models show high pressure building in by then deflecting the storm north.  Current and previous runs of all models suggest high pressure, and clear weather for the following weekend.  All done we should see wide spread rain of one or more inches across the region, snow in Lake Tahoe and several feet along the Sierra Crest.  Seriously.  In mid October.  We are still 5 days out on the Tuesday storm, so keep in mind, it is a period of seasonal change, and would not be odd that tomorrow's run has a completely different solution.  But prepare for rain.

This would also mean more cold air filtering in.  Highs of mid 60s over the weekend could drop to mid 50s by early in the week.  By Wednesday the air should moderate a bit, but if the storm stays upon, more cold air will filter south.  Regardless, by Friday things should be warming back up toward 70 and the sun should return.  Long term models show a pretty strong high pressure setting up us, as well as strong lows coming across the Pacific on the 40th Parallel, before getting deflected hard north just before our coastline.  That would result in super fine weather and solid west swell for the last week of the month.    Stay tuned.  Things are getting exciting.

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