Saturday, October 6, 2012

NWS calls 30% chance, I say slim.

Holy cow, what another example of an awesome day it is outside.  Looking across the water this morning, I took a moment to thank God for such beauty.  How could you not?  Don't worry, I'm not going to get all spiritual on ya, but it is damn gorgeous around here.  Sunny and light winds dominate the coast.  Air mass is a bit cool, so the early morning hours are a bit crisp, and may even dip below 50F in the chilly pockets.  Afternoon highs are hovering just about 70F.  The real big news this post is that the butterflies have begun to arrive.  We say a few random Monarchs in an alley way near Natural Bridges, so we decided to walk down into the grove.  It ain't crazy epic yet.  Just a few here and there.  OTOH, we had them all to ourselves for the good part of an hour.

Another grey day at Natural bridges State Park.  Good news, is that when the sun shines, the butterflies come out.

Fog threatens to return tonight, but my money is on an early burn off if it does show.  Light west sea breezes should keep things pretty clear, but if they dip southerly, we will get socked in.  As we move into next week that upper level low starts to crawl right over us.  Now, there is a lot of chatter out there about rain coming in next week.  And sure, there is a chance.  Pretty slim one, but it exists.  This so called storm system is pretty dry for something coming from over the ocean.  What is sure to happen is that we will have out temperature drop a bit.  Things cool off by Tuesday.  Low 60s.  And we could see a good deal of cloud cover.  Of course, this is Santa Cruz, and I am betting we will see more weather like today, a little bit cooler, with a few more high clouds running, but essentially like today.  South of us has a greater chance of seeing rain, especially through mid week, as does the Sierra, who may get a few inches Thursday night.   But don't listen to me, prepare for rain.  NWS says it is most likely to come Tuesday, but I think Wednesday morning looks the wettest.  As is a quick, light, drizzle.

Things clear up by Friday, and currently it looks like we could get into a warm, offshore event by next weekend.  Seems about right for mid October.  Don't put away your bathing suit just yet.  in fact, while some outlets are calling for a cold fall and early onset of winter, we still don't see any significant storms hitting us in 16 day models runs.  As always, after 3-5 days out, these models are not very accurate, but that storm around mid month continues to stay north.  Sorry Portland folks who we recently bragging about sunshine and stuff.  Anyway, it looks like we should stay pretty nice in the month of October, but that could always change.  Good time of year to be on guard.

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