Thursday, October 4, 2012

Dude, it is freaking cold out. And a chance of showers lingers.

Come on man.  Where did my autumn go?  These past few days were spectacular.  Hot at our house, clocking a cool 96F at 3PM on Tuesday.  Word is it hit 104F on Monday.  A bit cooler down at the waters edge, but well above 80F during the middle of the day.  And even yesterday broke clear.  We watched the sunrise and were out the door as soon as possible.  Good thing too.  As we strolled across Lighthouse Field at 8:30AM, it was toasty.  Felt like another scorcher was in the works.  Around 9AM a light, cool breeze began to come from the south.  It felt nice.  And then we saw it.  Way out on the horizon.  The fog.  It moved closer, the breeze increased and temperatures dropped 15 degrees by noon.  And now, it is chilly.  Cold even.  And more is to come.

This fog is from a south wind that was drawn by an upper level low approaching the California coast.  Over the next few days, cold air will be ushering in.  This should be the coolest day for us along the coast, but the Sierra is seeing a significant shift in season.  80 degree high temps from this past weekend will be replaced by days struggling to get into the 50s.  Overnight lows will be skirting with freezing at 8000 feet.  And with a chance of showers early next week, we could see the first dusting on the higher peaks.  Some outlets are calling for a cold fall and early winter.  I reject that option and prefer to see sunny, balmy wonderfulness.  But that is not is store for us this week.

So this is dated and all, but we were lucky to have clear skies when the Space Shuttle flew by.  Lighthouse Field.

Highs in Santa Cruz should reach into the low 60s today.  Fog remains around through the day.  Slight chance of clearing later, but don't expect much sun within a mile of the Pacific.  Warmer tomorrow and for the weekend, but lack of sun will keep things from getting much past 70F.  Next week, the temperature remains about the same, but that upper level low will start to draw moisture over the Central Coast.  Greatest chance for precipitation will be in the Sierra and along south west facing slopes.  We are not expecting much, and it may just seem like foggy drizzle, but get your self prepared, just in case.  Right now, I am putting my money on us staying clear of it here in Santa Cruz, with onshore flow south of us pulling moisture up into the Sierra and leaving a nice little dusting on the peaks.  I'm also thinking it will help sweep the zone clean and set us up from another bought of great weather about a week from now.

For you surfer types, winds remain lighter and south for the rest of this week.  A little swell is in the water today and the south gets a bump up.  Things will get small through Saturday, but another round of small long period NW is on tap Sunday.  The big news is the storm forming near the date line today and dropping south, setting us up for a possible solid west swell late next week.  Like I said, fall is here.  It is swell season.  And as these storms begin to make waves, they start to reach further and further down the west coast.  A good sized storm will roll in sooner or later.  There is still rain on the models for the 14/15/16 of October, but as of now, it is staying north of here.  Still, while the track tends to move north or south with each run of the models, it always is there.  Rain, real rain, cannot be too far away.  

Cool and foggy this week.  Warmer by the weekend, but still not a whole lot of sun.  Maybe some light rain early to mid next week.  Hopefully hot and sunny after that.

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