Monday, October 22, 2012

Drying to come, but no real warm up in sight.

I think the real big news this morning is the rain, but the mid and long term look interesting as well.  We may have seen the Turn, and I for one, now hope for an Indian Summer.  Funny, how folks in other parts of the country think of September and early October as that time of year.  For us, November and December can be super nice, but now things are looking more and more likely that we will indeed get an early winter.  I have been denying it for months, as I am not that interested in analogs, but now the models, and indeed reality, suggest that it may be true.  More on that.  But first, the rain.

We won't see a morning sunrise for a few more days here in town.  Looking across the westside.

Rain filled in for the morning commute.   We may get lucky here in Santa Cruz, as some blocking kept us from the heaviest rains this morning.  SF and points north east of there seemed to take the brunt.  Roads are slippery, as to be expected, and more is on the way.  Mid day we are seeing a break, but it is still expected to see the heaviest showers to come later today.  Hard to believe when I look out the window and see sun in the sky and northwesterly wind.  But when you look at the NorCal radar, there is an obvious band offshore of Humboldt.  And that should come across us this evening and overnight.

Basically, the rain will lighten up during the day on Tuesday, with showers and moderate rain moving through in bands.  Maybe a burst during the night.  More of the same on Wednesday.  A few models suggest we could see clearing here on the coast by early morning Wednesday, but others suggest continued rain.  We will need to keep a close eye on things.  Low 60s mid week, warming to maybe 65 by week's end.  What looks sure is that we should be pretty clear of clouds by Friday.  But a big warm up is not in the forecast.  Sunny and mid 60s through the weekend.

We see another chance of rain coming as early as next Monday evening.  Chances are not much to get too excited about, but it does suggest a much more southerly jet stream compared to a few weeks ago.  I for one, hope that is wrong and we have another round of warm, excellent weather.  Sure, an early winter would be nice when considering the snow, but I'm not done enjoying the beach.  And neither is my son.  But if snow is your thing, then you might like the two plus feet forecasted.  I know I'll try to get a piece of it once the storm winds up.

I'll have a short post tomorrow to get the details on Wednesday and Thursday.  Expect wetness.  Dry Friday and through the weekend.  Cool, but not cold.

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