Happy Thanksgiving.

Hey, at least it is not raining.  That is a big positive.  Mild weather continues through the holiday weekend, with highs in the low to mid 60s.  Sunday looks like the warmest.  More coolness arrives early next week.  Lows in the low 40s.  Decent sized surf.  Trails are in good shape.  Water falls might even be running a bit with last week's rain fall.  Anyway, it looks like pleasant weather for the holiday weekend.  So enjoy.  Next week is up in the air.

Ferris Wheel.

Basically, we are seeing a large scale trough develop near the west coast.  Again, a cut off system that is hard to forecast much more than a day or two in advance.  Iy could be very cold.  It could be very wet.  It could be cool and dry.  Just don't expect hot weather.  More as we move into the weekend.  But be prepared just in case this thing sets up over us with lots of over water pull.  There is also a chance of the system tapping into tropical moisture stream late in the week, so it could get very very wet.  For now, roast up a bird, kick back, and enjoy the holiday.  More on next week soon.

Big jumbled surf coming for Turkey Day, and confidence building for a wet solution mid next week.

Another quick one as I take a break in packing the car for the holiday trip to the man made snow.  If you are wondering, a few resorts in Tahoe have opened on primarily man made snow with limited runs.  Mammoth is in a bet better condition, but we need a big snow to really get going up there.  On the other hand, weather looks great for the long weekend, and it is time to make some snowmen and hit the slopes.  Meanwhile, down here in Santa Cruz, the models shift west again with the storm, keeping it well off shore, and us quite dry.  Still, maybe some showers.  These cut off lows are very finicky.

Sparrow nest, nestled into the sand stone cliffs.  4 Mile Beach, Santa Cruz

Bigger news would be the increasing wind swell and mid period swell tomorrow, with a sizable swell showing up on Thanksgiving.  All that water moving about is going to make for some jumbled conditions, but with the storm off shore and too our south, we could see some off shore breezes cleaning things up.  And considering how poor the surf has been lately, this looks to be a fun event.  Due to the speed of the storm, the waves should be short lived and much smaller by Saturday.  Don't worry, another long period WNW could be here by Sunday.

A significant seasonal type change continues to be forecast for mid next week.  Being significant seasonal change type stuff, which the models always have difficulty in forecasting accuracy, and the shift still being a week out, we are not ready to forecast with much confidence as to the timing.  But, that said, models continue to suggest a cold trough settling down, with a good portion over water, into our region.  That would me a good dose of rain, a chill and abundant snow.  This could be the one to start off the season folks.  Hope you have the gutters cleaned, and the yard ready for winter.

Moderate chance for light rain late Wednesday.

Think travel folks.  This Wednesday evening is one of the busiest days on the road in the entire year.  It is not looking like we will have down pours, but there is a chance of rain out there.  Current run of the GFS has that storm a little closer back to shore, which actually seems as a more likely scenario than to have this thing miss us entirely.  Funny thing is, if it does, it will end up pounding SoCal.  In fact, it looks like they will get the brunt of this system.  Some wrap around looks like it could happen on the holiday brining upper elevation snow showers to the high Sierra.  But we are not looking at much accumulation.  But keep a wary eye.  This system has plenty of moisture, and a slight easterly shift in its tract we could be looking at copious rain and snow.  Next event chance is around December 5th, but wet weather could draw in a few days before that.  For now, we will just take a quick look at the upcoming week.

The have been plenty of birds around this November.  

Tuesday looks very similar to today.  Warm and pleasant.  Actually, quite pleasant.  A bit more clouds on Wednesday, with a slight chance for showers by evening.  Greatest likelihood for rain will be early Thanksgiving morning.  Of course, with the clouds, it will feel a touch cooler.  Any rain we do get will subside by Friday morning.  For now, lets call it a slight chance for light rain, or maybe a moderate shower.  Totals less than a few tenths of an inch.  So really, not much.  A bit warmer, and a bit sunnier through the weekend.  More of the same continues to start December.  A broad low pressure system looks to develop in the southern Gulf later on Monday and will hit Seattle with plenty of rain early in the week.  By Wednesday we could develop clouds and light rain as the system spreads south, with possibly a slug of moisture hitting us late in the week and into the first weekend of December.  More on this later.

For now, things look pretty nice.  If a little rain bothers you, travel a bit east.  But we probably won't see more than a few sprinkles.  Drive safe, and enjoy the coming holiday.  If I see any major change in this holiday forecast, I will be sure to post up here tomorrow or the next day.

Things are looking up for the holiday.

Just a real short one today folks.  I need to get outside an play a little bit, as well as get a pumpkin roasting for my holiday pie and some chestnuts roasting (and peeled) for my holiday dressing.  Anyway, I just wanted to give you a heads up on where the weather is trending.  More of the same.  Low to mid 60s as a daytime high and low 40s as an early morning low.  At least for the next few days.  Kind of typical late November weather.  The storm that has been on the charts for the past few days is trending further and further west.  I'll take a look at the model runs the next few days and post up an changes, but if the trend continues with a western trajectory we might just see a continuation of the cool and dry weather that we are currently having.  Chances for any snow in the Sierra look pretty slim, and chances for rain on the coast are diminishing.  That is good news, right?

Main Beach, Santa Cruz.

No surf to speak of right now in the water.  Hell, it looks more like July out there.  I still have not done anything to replace my bike tube that burst in May (hey, I've been busy working in the yard whenever the surf goes flat), but with last week's rain I can only imagine the trails are lovely and tacky.  If that is not your thing, try a walk around UCSC farm. It has lovely views.  Whatever you find yourself doing, I hope you are getting outdoors.  The weather is quite fine.  And it looks like we may yet hold off on more rain.  Long term, things start to look wetter toward the end of the first week of December.  But we need to get a lot closer to that before we start forecasting.  Get out and enjoy Santa Cruz.

First rain clears for a crisp few days, and a fair weekend ahead.

Well, that was fun.  Nothing too serious, but enough to make some of us stop worrying about an uber drought or water jinx or something.  We collected almost half an inch of rain in our yard on the west side, and areas in the Santa Cruz Mountains exceeded and inch over the past few days.  Cool air is moving into the region, an although the sun is back out, we won't be climbing much above 60F today.  A strong wind event is setting up over the land mass today with very blustery conditions in the Sierra, where the Tahoe resorts got about a half foot to a foot of fresh snow, with Kirkwood reporting in with 18 inches.  More on the whole snow sliding thing below.  Strong winds are expected down near the coast and in the local hills with a NNE direction.  Over the water, things will be quite a bit mellower, and in fact, right now we have some fresh solid wind swell and calm local conditions.

Big Dipper, Santa Cruz Boardwalk.

Winds remain strong through Saturday morning, keeping us cool with arctic air.  As the breezes subside into the weekend, we will warm back up through the mid 60s, but don't going expecting more than that.  We should remain on a fair and sunny track through at least next Tuesday.  Models being models have been flaky recently.  Here is the gist of things.  A storm is to form in the Gulf of Alaska around Monday, and will pick up plenty of water and begin moving south and east.  This thing could go over and east of us, or west and under us, or right on top of us.  This morning's GFS has the storm hanging right on the coast and dumping a good rain on Santa Cruz next Wednesday, and into Thanksgiving.  Could make for some serious driving headaches.  Anyway, I'll be watching this for sure, as we plan to be on the road next week.  So check back here for the holiday forecast to form up.

As for the mountains and snow sport folks.  So, yes, some fresh snow fell on the resorts, but not nearly enough to get things opened.  Heavenly and Rose should open this Friday on a few man made runs.  Northstar and Kirkwood are putting their opening on hold, but may still be open this weekend.  Good money has them, and others, spinning lifts before Thanksgiving.  That arctic air I mention is really going to drop temperatures overnight the next few nights and allow for copious snow to be blown from guns.  So, sure, you should be able to make some turns within the next few days.  But don't go expecting much in the form of off piste to be opening up.  Unless we get lucky next week and get another storm like the past few days.  But even then, off piste will be limited to resorts directly along the crest like Kirkwood, Sugarbowl, Squaw and Alpine.  Still, it is a good chance to stretch the legs and knock the cobwebs off your sticks.

Rain Likely.

Another cool, and partially clear, autumn day today.  Not gonna warm up too much out there.  Just a quick update today, to say the forecast pretty much stands.  Here in Santa Cruz, Tuesday will begin partly cloudy, with showers passing through by evening.  Rain picks up overnight, with our heaviest precipitation falling during the early morning hours on Wednesday.  It will likely be a fairly rough commute.  Weather will not be particularly nasty, but you damn California drivers always seem how to forget to drive in the rain and screw the pooch on the first real rain storm.  Just saying.  Drive carefully, be considerate, and slow it down a touch.  You will all arrive safely that way.  Rain lightens through the day, with a final wave moving through in the evening and overnight.  This one looks to bullseye in Big Sur, so, with a bit of luck, it will be lighter up here.  Clearing on Thursday and a warm up for Friday and the weekend.  More on the weekend and coming coming holiday later this week.  Winds are not looking too strong with this system, but with the heavier rain, we could see some moderate southerly gust.  If anything changes significantly. you can be sure that I will be posting up here.

The lovely coast just north of town.

Getting Progressive, Eh?

GFS comes around to wetter solution, while the Canadian holds.  Euro backs off a touch.  But all three have us wet next week, with what is looking like the first multi day weather system of the season.  This is no super storm coming, but the roads are going to be wet, and water may begin to run in the streets.  Hard to tell, as out ground is super dry right now and might just suck it all in like a brand new sponge.  Rain looks to be fairly light through the period, but with several days of rain in the forecast, we could see a bit of accumulation.  Bullseye is looking to be in Humboldt with over three inches.  Tahoe north could hit an inch plus, with the south side getting less.  Down here in Santa Cruz we are looking at about an half inch, with more likely in select spots in the coastal mountains.  Let's look at the day to day.

Even the clouds around here are pretty sweet.  Some where above Santa Cruz.

Get out there today, as the sun is out and the weather is just fine.  It is about perfect out there for that yard work.  I for one need to get up and look at the gutters today.  I have not been lazy folks.  I've been squeezing every last bit out of the dry season and staying on top of my projects.  I've just have not taken the time to clean those gutters.  Getting to that today.  High in the low 60s.  Chilly over night, but a nice day again on Monday.  Similar to today.   By evening things start to turn as clouds begin to move in with slightly cooler air.  Rain is likely in the north bay overnight, with showers moving south east through the morning hours.  The Route 17 commute could be dry Tuesday morning, but it looks like we should have wet roads by the evening commute.  The light winds from Monday will shift southerly and moderate.  This is not a very windy system.  Showers and south breezes continue into Wednesday.
Current model runs have us drying out by Thursday, but showers continue to our north and in the Sierra.  Another slight shift in the forecast could keep us wet.  OTOH, a slight shift in the other direction could dry us out earlier.  By Friday, high pressure noses in and we will be back up into the upper 60s with sunshine.  Right now it looks like a real nice weekend coming up next.  And the mid term has the holiday period relatively dry, and perhaps a bit crisp.  More on that as we approach.

EDIT:  Current GFS model has some moisture kicking back around the low and hitting us on Thursday.  I'll take a look at the runs later today and tomorrow morning and post back up here.  Could be that we see a three day wet event.  Winter is knocking at the door.

Rain by Tuesday?

Okay folks, I know it may seem like I am beginning to just cry wolf, but we actually have three models somewhat in agreement for rain just 3 days out.  I think we can feel pretty sure that we will see at least a little something this coming week, so use your time wisely.  If you have gutters, and you still have not been up to take a look at them, please do, and clean them if they have leaves.  Here is the gist of things.  Cool, crisp weather continues through Monday, with highs in the low 60s.  A storm system will develop and move south along the coast reaching the northern Bay Area by mid day Tuesday.  Rain looks to spread south and west through the region over night into Wednesday morning.  Here is where the models don't align.  The GFS has us drying out through the day on Wednesday, with the others keeping us wet a bit longer.  The GFS has been progressing slightly wetter the past few runs.  No super storm, but we could see enough to get a foot of snow.  I'll watch how the models play out over the next 36 hours and give ya'll a better idea of what  to expect next week.  Who knows?  The way things have been going this fall, I would not be shocked if it all blew out to our north instead.  By Friday, high pressure bubbles back in and we could have a warm up for next weekend.

4 Mile Beach and the marine layer just off shore.

Hanging out on the dry side of the storms.

That is what we can expect to be happening in Santa Cruz for the next five or six days.  Anything beyond that is mostly a guess.  It is cooler today.  In fact, the cold fog bank from yesterday really kept the high temps a bit cooler yesterday, but it was fine weather just a bit up the hill.  We walked around Henry Cowell Redwood SP, and the weather was brilliant.  More sun today than yesterday, but cool breezes have already begun to impact the coast.  Breezy today out on the water.  We should top out just about 63F today.  Cooler than that over the weekend, but at least the rain looks to stay to our north.  So, in short, a wonderful, if crisp, autumn weekend is on tap.  Winds might even turn off shore on Sunday warming up the beaches a bit.

Santa Cruz Boardwalk Big Dipper.  Still open on weekends!

Highs in the low 60s, and over night lows dropping through Monday night where some low lying valleys in the local hills could see temps drop into the upper 30s.  Those clear nights do have their disadvantages.  Chilly.  Cozy up.  You may be wanting to check out that heating system in your home.  Or clean the smoke stack if you have a stove.  Still looking like a great weekend to clean those gutters.  The rain is never too far away this time of year.  Still, we keep on getting an extension on the dry weather, and the back yard work continue on our property.  Next chance for passing showers looks to be next Wednesday, but don't hold your breath.  Just check back here, and I will keep you posted.

I do want to apologize about not giving you guys a fair heads up about the great sunrise and sunset conditions we had this past week with the passing high clouds.  It is sunset season, with the sun low in the sky and clouds moving through.  Keep an eye out for those brilliant displays.  And don't forget that the Monarchs are in town.  If you don't absolutely love Santa Cruz this time of year, I just don;t understand you.  It is awesome out there right now.

Um, yeah, so, okay....

Short one today, but it is mostly an illustration on on difficult it it is for the models to get a handle on the mid and long term as we go through seasonal changes.  For us here on the west coast, that is more of a summer moving to winter thing.  Generally, you can bet on excellent weather in the autumn, and in fact, more days than not during the winter are excellent as well.  But, and a big but here, when talking about the weather for beyond 80 hours from the current time, it is very hard to feel sure about things.  But, if you are like me, you like to know what the next weekend will look like by the previous Sunday evening.  I mean, most of the year, we have that kind of certainty.  So here is the rub.

Small waves are fun, too.  More at WaveStoke

Awesome weather this week.  A little breeze today.  Less so through the middle of the week.  Upper 60s to lower 70s here in town, warmest Wednesday.  But it stays pretty damn warm through the work week.  Increasing wind on Friday and into the start of the weekend as cooler air moves in.  Yesterday I said that the storm bringing said cooler air would remain north and east.  Today the GFS and Euro brings that storm through our area.  Not a bullseye, but wet for sure.  Wetter for Tahoe.  Keep posted.  I'll be doing my best to keep you informed here.  Looks like a quick one right now.

Dry Solution through the Holiday.

Holy back peddling, Batman!  Or, maybe not.  Way back in September, fall forecasts were being thrown out, many of them calling for no significant rain before mid December.  So far, so good.  While the mid term models have been quite bullish just a short time ago, the short term solutions are all dry.  And the mid and long term have dried up, with no significant rain through the coming holiday.  Now, we have seen how this whole thing can flip around in the short term, but we have agreement with the seasonal forecast so far.  Don't see why we should start doubting it now.  Continue with your outside projects.  Hopefully, you have gotten a bit more organized due to my wet scare last week, and will really be ready to wrap it for when the rain does come.  I've extended by deadline to November 23rd.  After that I need to spend a few days preparing our turkey feast.  But, for now, lets take a look at the coming week.

Standard Shortboard.

Small dateline swell will continue to ease on Tuesday morning, and condition remain pretty nice in the morning.  Clouds to start the day will clear and we could be warming up into the mid to upper 60s.  Another beautiful day along the central California coast.  Wednesday could be a scourcher, and if you find the right spot, at the right time, and have a little bit of luck, you could be sitting in some 70F sunshine for humpday.  And it will likely be the peak of the warmth, as we see a very slow decline over the weekend, with next Monday in the mid 60s.  Plenty of sunshine, and mostly light winds with some afternoon breezes.  Tuesday and Friday look like they have the most wind, but nothing stormy.

If you are a snow slider, and are looking toward the Thanksgiving holiday as a time where you might give it a go, things are looking less than stellar.  There is some snow on the ground at the higher elevations, but not a solid snow pack at resort levels.  Right now over night lows have just barely been reaching down into the snow making realms, so there is limited potential to blow snow.  Limited is not none.  Expect the big groomer resorts (Northstar and Heavenly) to have some terrain open.  A few other places should as well.  Kirkwood is making a go of it and had a chance to blow some snow about a week ago.  Just don't expect a whole bunch, if any, off piste.

For now, it looks like great fall weather on tap here in Santa Cruz.  Low to mid 40s in the very early morning hours, mid to upper 60s in the afternoons.  Sunshine.  Light winds.  In fact, this is a great time to put in a winter garden.  If this mild weather actually holds out through mid December, those seedlings could really get a nice foot hold and produce this winter.  I'm picking up my Brussles Sprouts in a few days.  Wish me luck.

Nice autumn weekend, while the models continue to run dry.

Unless you are a skier hoping for an early dump, this is a great post for you to read.  If you are one of the many who still have outside work to wrap up, this is a great post for you to read.  I fall into both groups, but the latter trumps.  Anyway, today is nice.  Mid 60s, sunshine, with just a bit of a sea breeze kicking up in the afternoon.  That breeze will be around tomorrow as well, and we will see a bit cooler daily highs over the weekend.  Expect mid 60s on Saturday.  Still pleasant.  By Sunday, the winds will shift out of the south, as a storm develops north west of us.  South winds could result in morning fog on Sunday.  These winds could increase on Monday, and will usher in a warm front.  Oddly enough, the warm front just keeps us from cooling off to much.  Low 60s for Sunday and Veteran's Day.  Monday will feel cool with the cloud cover.

As it stands right now, we will remain dry next week.  If you read my last post, there is clearly still a lot of wetness nearby, and a slight easterly shift in the dominant high pressure and we could see rain.  And plenty of it.  But, as we get closer, the models get drier.  Expect a decent week with temps building back up through at least Thursday.  Hell, next Friday could be quite warm if the current thinking holds.  Still some clouds on Tuesday, but looking partly to mostly sunny for the rest of the work week.  I'll keep an eye out on the following weekend and beyond.  The rain is always just around the corner.

Dragging its feet along.

It is very nice out there right now.  If you are a surfer, a morning like this, is pretty damn perfect.  The ocean is silky glass.  The seals are active, and there was an a pod of porpoise frolicking its way south just off shore.  Good stuff.  The rest of today should remain mellow and nice.  Light cloud cover filled in through the morning, keeping the sun effect at a low.  NOAA is still calling for a sea breeze today, although down graded over night. But man it feels like on of those autumn days where the wind will just never really start to blow.  The next few days look similar, with a slight cooling trend through the weekend, bottoming out on Monday with a afternoon high of just about 60F.  And a slight chance of rain.  But, if one were to believe the GFS, we could be skipped over until about the 16th.

The Rick.  And a bit of the yard.

The Euro is still a bit more aggressive, but even that has backed off in the last 24 hour of model runs.  Basically, this is the scenario.  High clouds today are from a storm running ashore near Seattle.  The next one starts to develop off the BC coast on Saturday and begins moving south, staying off shore.  It will be nicely developed by Monday and just hanging off the northern California coast.  A third system develops southwest of there on Tuesday, pulling the energy and moisture of storm #2 as it shifts ashore.   High pressure builds to a big block, keeping storm #3 out at sea where it dies.  This is on scenario, where we end up with no rain this coming week.   But there is a lot of energy and moisture swirling about just around the corner.  A slight shift, the flutter of a butterfly wing, and we could still get hit.  I am not ready yet to bet on no rain this coming week, but I'm now thinking we won't likely get a lot.  Best chance is on Monday or early Wednesday.  I'll come back here and update for sure.

I would still use this weekend to clean the gutters, pick up the yard toys, and wrap up any dry weather outdoors projects.  It is not quite winter around the corner, but it could come at any time.  The system for around the 16th still looks solid and wet, so there is that.  In case you are counting, that is the weekend following the coming weekend.  So, see what I mean about using your time wisely.  And don't forget, it is dark at 5:30.  

Today's models have us dry until about the 18th...

Gorgeous out there today.  Head high plus swell in the water, warm air and a slight offshore breeze.  It wasn't perfect out there, but better than a whole lot of other places.  Warm air continues through tomorrow, if a bit cooler.  You probably won't notice it.  Maybe on Friday, as we drop back into highs in the mid 60s.  Saturday may register cool, in the low 60s, but we look to warm up over the next few days.  I will need to fine tune this later, but it looks like we will be without rain until maybe late Tuesday, as the Sunday/Monday event looks to fizzle out just offshore.  The models keep shifting, so there is not a whole lot of consensus right now on the exact tracts.  We should expect at least a little rain by mid week, but the current run of the models has only about a tenth of an inch on Wednesday.  Regardless of rain, we should expect a dip in temperatures.  Lots still up in the air, but the next two days look like splendid November weather.

Big fin, big board.  '63 Rick, turned 50 years old this summer.

Today's run of the models suggest a shift to a more northerly storm track, keeping us mostly rain free for 10 or more days.  I'll be watching things closely over the next few days to see where the pattern shift is going.  A northerly storm track can keeps us dry, and in fairly nice weather.  A track centered over us brings rain, cool air, and strong south winds.  Check back here over for more.  Now go out and surf on Wednesday, it is looking pretty fun out there.

Fair Weather for a few more days, then the Rain is Coming!

I'll start off this post by saying you better get your crap in order, cause the rain is coming.  Clean the gutters, wrap up the yard word, pick up the random stuff that has been outside all summer, and bust out the Wellies, 'cause it is gonna get wet around here.  But more on that later.  First we need to talk about the next five days or so, because they are looking pretty fine.  Tuesday will start crisp with a clear sky and daytime temps warming up to the mid to upper 60s.  Winds will be off shore in the morning, but an afternoon sea breeze should build.  Wednesday is looking like the winner this week, with a high of just about 70F, and little to light winds.  There will also be some decent swell in the water this week, so it looks like a great day to get some waves.  Thursday will be a bit cooler, but still in the mid 60s.  All in all the work week looks quite excellent.  If you are waiting for the weekend, it will at least be nice enough to clean those gutters.

There have been a lot of planes circling above.  This guy was doing loops by the lighthouse.

Another Pacific storm runs ashore to our north.  Similar to this past week.  Not the wind storm I was forecasting, but what actually happened.  The storm will stay to our north, and we will see moderate northwest breezes developing and a drop in day time highs.  Friday should be about 60F, and it will stick around there through the weekend and into next week.  But here is the news.  And take it with a grain of salt, as we are still about 5 or 6 days out.  That storm on Friday is to be followed by one on Monday, Wednesday and the following Saturday (16th).  Or so.  Remember, these long term models only can suggest trends as opposed to details.  Anyway, it looks like we start to see rain sometime between mid Monday and Tuesday, with it off and on through the 17th (and there is more suggested beyond that!)  All in all through the period we could be measuring the precipitation in inches.  So, yeah, baton down the hatches.  Get ready for winter.  And wax up those skis.  If this actually comes to pass, we could be looking at a good opening for the ski resorts this year.

Confidence is some sort of wet solution is fairly high right now.  A lot can happen over the next few days concerning timing and moisture content, but it would not hurt to get your house in order when you have time this week.  Check back here for more info.  Post will become more frequent as we approach the storms and live through them.  In the meantime, go for a surf this week.  It is looking pretty good out there.

Cooler and Windy this weekend, but no Rain likely.

Today should be another winner, warming up more than even yesterday.  And while it started off pretty crisp Thursday morning, it was starting to feel like it was actually hot our by mid afternoon.  Okay, maybe not hot, but I had to take my hoody off to work in the yard, and actually found myself wishing I had put on a pair of shorts.  Great weather for wrapping up projects.  And that is exactly what you will want to be doing over the next week, as the long term is turning into the mid term and it is still suggesting a short wet period for mid month.  But first, the short term.  Today we will likely warm up to 70F in average locations in town.  My deck will be a little warmer than that, and the Costco parking lot could hit 75F.  Winds remain light with a mild sea breeze in the afternoon.  As another storm drives into the PNW during the day Saturday, north west winds are expected to really pick up and drive cold winter air across our region.  Best time for playing outside will be in the morning.  Rain looks like it will stay well north with this one, but it will be quite blustery.  Folks in Tahoe may see a dusting of snow from the trailing edge of the precipitation.

Coast Guard cruising the coast just north of town.  

Don't forget to turn back your clocks this weekend.  It might be a good night to have an extra glass of mulled wine or a thick porter.  It is going to be that kind of weather.  Even with the cold air, the over night lows remain in the mid 40s, but day time highs will be dropping.  Saturday may reach its high of 65F in very early afternoon, and then start cooling off quickly as the cold front passes.  Sunday should reach about 60F, and the winds, although a bit lighter, will still be strong.  This might be a good day to clean your gutters if you are unable to get out mid week.  The wind storm will knock done most of the loose leaves and branches, and we could be looking at rain before next weekend.

The great news is the sun should be out through most of the period.  We could see a few passing clouds late Saturday, but not too many.  The not great news is it is now November and it will take some time for the air to warm back up.  I guess that is great news if you are hoping for some early snow, but I've been loving the past few months and want to clock a few more beach days before the season ends.  Low 60s and sunshine through the first part of the week, and then some warming by Wednesday.  Thursday and Friday should see us moving back through the mid 60s and into the upper 60s.

But by Friday afternoon we see more cold air moving south and a chance of rain that could persist through the weekend.  Things are still way too far out to make any solid forecasts, but there will be an active pattern.  Likely it will be brief, but some models give us over five days of rain.  Others 36 hours.  And that could all disappear in a week's time.  But it is something to mind. Check back here, I'll keep you posted as we approach change.

3 PM EDIT:    Looks like the strongest winds will wait until Saturday evening.  The air coming with the winds are very cold.  It will be a chilly night.  You may want to test the heater or clean the chimney.   Sunday will remain blustery through the day, and things should lighten up over night Sunday.  Cloud cover looks like it will be moderate on Sunday, especially in the morning.  Sunday will be a bundle up day, or cozy around the wood stove with hot cider day.   Monday will now be the gutter cleaning day.  Rain still on the charts.  More over the weekend.